Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The coolwx graphics are really bullish on ice coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Why? Have to stick to the script. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Have to stick to the script. haha Just curious about what he's thinking. I mean, there are some reasons to think it might not be a big deal. Strong southerly low level flow is not a good way to rack up big ice amounts but I can think of a few such events in the past several years that produced borderline warning or warning criteria amounts in the region before changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 haha Just curious about what he's thinking. I mean, there are some reasons to think it might not be a big deal. Strong southerly low level flow is not a good way to rack up big ice amounts but I can think of a few such events in the past several years that produced borderline warning or warning criteria amounts in the region before changing to rain. He may have been talking about his hood specifically. ORD and "outlying" areas a different story IMO. If anything, seems the 12z runs were the most bullish on a good hit of ice. Along with your thoughts, another event where snow cover in and downstream would've helped keep things colder, longer. But you know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 He may have been talking about his hood specifically. ORD and "outlying" areas a different story IMO. If anything, seems the 12z runs were the most bullish on a good hit of ice. Along with your thoughts, another event where snow cover in and downstream would've helped keep things colder, longer. But you know... Ah, I forgot he may be talking about his lakefront paradise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I can't recall a single major ice event (especially the urban core) with a strong southerly flow. It just doesn't happen...I think a light glaze is probably most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Is it paradise down by the lakefront? Isn't that where all these people got trapped in their cars during the snowstorm a few years back? Looks like a possible ice monster here... Could be ugly week for wrist fractures... Lots of business coming for orthopedic surgeons and maybe a few podiatrists... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I can't recall a single major ice event (especially the urban core) with a strong southerly flow. It just doesn't happen...I think a light glaze is probably most likely. Early December 2007 had some decent ice I think...can't remember the exact date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z GGEM, right up Hoosier's alley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z GGEM, right up Hoosier's alley. 1:25 12z GGEM 60 hours.png That's ugly. At least it will quickly melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Is it paradise down by the lakefront? Isn't that where all these people got trapped in their cars during the snowstorm a few years back? Looks like a possible ice monster here... Could be ugly week for wrist fractures... Lots of business coming for orthopedic surgeons and maybe a few podiatrists... Yeah, when sand, frozen lake water spray and snow is whipping at your face in 60mph winds - it's not paradise! GGEM puts out every precip. type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z GGEM, right up Hoosier's alley. One thing I've noticed about our ice events since living here is that they've almost always melted as quickly as they came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 One thing I've noticed about our ice events since living here is that they've almost always melted as quickly as they came. Yeah, pretty much. The Jan 13 deal didn't melt though, but that was just a "solid" glazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Alek - that event I was thinking of was December 1, 2007 MDW obs http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMDW/2007/12/01/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Alek - that event I was thinking of was December 1, 2007 Mainly sleet for us based off LAF obs. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Mainly sleet for us based off LAF obs. Hmm. Looks like our precip shut off before the warm layer got deep enough for freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 RPM showing quite a bit of snow in WI and MI from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 RPM showing quite a bit of snow in WI and MI from this system. wgnsnowfall.jpg Not biting on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 RPM showing quite a bit of snow in WI and MI from this system. wgnsnowfall.jpg Tell Tom to move to the right a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 RPM showing quite a bit of snow in WI and MI from this system. wgnsnowfall.jpg How did his RPM verify for the last several "events" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 How did his RPM verify for the last several "events" ? In the RPM world I'd be over 30" on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Early December 2007 had some decent ice I think...can't remember the exact date. December 1, 2007. Got about 3-4 inches of sleet (!!!) and about a quarter inch of ice. The ice accumulation melted when the temps rose above freezing but the sleet remained for several weeks afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Skilling's RPM and the GGEM look nice for West Michigan. Not sure I buy it, but maybe it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 How did his RPM verify for the last several "events" ? Well it was a little too dry on last nights' run. From what I can see it's a decent gauge close to an event and when mild boundary layers are not present. It's probably as reliable as the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 IND mentioned the cold ground possibly allowing freezing rain to occur with air temps a bit above freezing. That would be one difference compared to that Dec 2007 event...the cold snap in the days leading up to this is more impressive this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Seems as thought the NAM would at least start as snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 IND mentioned the cold ground possibly allowing freezing rain to occur with air temps a bit above freezing. That would be one difference compared to that Dec 2007 event...the cold snap in the days leading up to this is more impressive this time. Thats what happened here last friday. Was actually around 36 during precip and many schools had to cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Hoosier- Very easily could happen here. The ground is so cold right now, with the lack of snowcover and subzero/single digit temps for days now... anything liquid that falls is going to freeze pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Looks like quite the mess of precipitation types here. If we see all four it will be worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Models are indicating pretty good precip rates in some of the freezing rain area. Either going to be rapid ice buildup or slower accretion rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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