wisconsinwx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 I looked at the soundings. Sounding for this location at 96 hours. All snow. Ok, I'll be honest, I looked at the maps on Wxcaster, and I saw a warm layer, however small it is, in the mid to upper levels creeping in the area (even my area) almost right at the onset of precip. That tells me it's a big concern that we wouldn't even see an inch of snow until it flips over to freezing rain most likely and then plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ok, I'll be honest, I looked at the maps on Wxcaster, and I saw a warm layer, however small it is, in the mid to upper levels creeping in the area (even my area) almost right at the onset of precip. That tells me it's a big concern that we wouldn't even see an inch of snow until it flips over to freezing rain most likely and then plain rain. Ok, I haven't checked the wxcaster maps. Twisterdata was the source of my information. What was wxcaster showing a few days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Why do you only use the 1000-850mb line to determine the all snow line? If there's one thing I learned from the recent sleet storm, it's that none of the lines, even the 850-500mb 0C line, can be north of your location if you are to be confident of receiving snow in that period. Ok, I'll be honest, I looked at the maps on Wxcaster, and I saw a warm layer, however small it is, in the mid to upper levels creeping in the area (even my area) almost right at the onset of precip. That tells me it's a big concern that we wouldn't even see an inch of snow until it flips over to freezing rain most likely and then plain rain. For snow you want the entire column below freezing. Taking the GFS forecast sounding for verbatim we would see a few hours of snow before change over. However at this point its not really worth worrying about the details. Whats for sure is we're going to be dealing with precp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Quite the mixed bag on the 0z GGEM (for Chicago, at least): about 0.10" as SN, 0.14" as IP, then over to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 DTX hints at 2-4" overrunning event before we mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 LOL at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 A couple snippets from LOT: WITH GUIDANCE PRODUCING 0.20-0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID QPF ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. and thereafter: IT WILL LIKELY BE RAINY/SHOWERY HOWEVER...AS ALL MODELS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE LONG-WAVE TROUGH...INCREASING DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT ABOVE VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS. COULD EVEN BE CONSIDERABLE THUNDER...EVEN SEVERE WEATHER...WITH 12Z GFS SOUNDINGS DEPICTING 500+ J/K OF MLCAPE AND 50-60 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z GFS is warmer, now has 850 temps well above freezing through the entire event in Iowa. The surface temp is still below freezing through afternoon so the GFS is now showing a mix changing to light rain by later afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 At first glance GFS may show a pretty decent icing signal around here... Although the GGEM is a good deal south which seems to be the inevitable trend lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Given the deep layer S/SW flow in place, I would expect the precip type transitions to occur on the faster end of what models are showing or perhaps even faster. One caveat could be if more snow than expected were to fall tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z Euro doesn't look much of anything but a cold light rain for LAF. Maybe a brief mix to start...though again, my main concern would be getting any precip in here, versus what the 2m temps may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z Euro doesn't look much of anything but a cold light rain for LAF. Maybe a brief mix to start...though again, my main concern would be getting any precip in here, versus what the 2m temps may be. Looks to me like it starts with a mix. Everything is going to be happening very fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Looks to me like it starts with a mix. Everything is going to be happening very fast. Don't blink? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Don't blink? At least it will be daytime and not one of those lame 2 am deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Can't look at BUFKIT right now but peeking at some forecast soundings and ptype maps, it looks like there could be a pretty large area of ice with this one. Hard to pinpoint where the worst will be but looks like a broad area from IA/MO eastward into IN may be at risk for amounts approaching or exceeding 1/4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 IND has freezing rain likely wording here with potential for more substantial ice north of Lafayette-Anderson-Muncie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 IND has freezing rain likely wording here with potential for more substantial ice north of Lafayette-Anderson-Mu Getting to be that time of year in our area. I am interested in the t storm possibilities for Tuesday for Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Getting to be that time of year in our area. I am interested in the t storm possibilities for Tuesday for Indiana. Yeah, spread the wealth ice in this kind of setup with WAA blasting in. Rapidly changing thermal profiles ensure that no particular area locks it in for like 12 hours....well, probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Since the NAM is legit again, just a cold rain for LAF. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Since the NAM is legit again, just a cold rain for LAF. Next. NAM is only legit with these screwy dry layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Mid-levels trended even warmer with today's guidance as I expected last night. Looks like a little freezing rain/sleet before light rain and drizzle here. Shouldn't see any snow at all with this in these parts. Southerly surface winds, and zero snow cover could allow warmer temps to arrive even sooner than modeled, so wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being a 98% rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Mid-levels trended even warmer with today's guidance as I expected last night. Looks like a little freezing rain/sleet before light rain and drizzle here. Shouldn't see any snow at all with this in these parts. Southerly surface winds, and zero snow cover could allow warmer temps to arrive even sooner than modeled, so wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being a 98% rain event. Another thing to consider is that WAA precip often starts faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Looks like sleet/freezing rain to rain here with the Sunday event. Per Twisterdata soundings. Looks like it might be a long enough time to warrant an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 06z NAM looks really messy here. 2-4" of snow followed by a period of freezing rain. Some pretty intense Omega in the DGZ too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 this is a mostly rain event for chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 this is a mostly rain event for chicagoFlurries to mist here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z NAM about 0.45" mix for ORD. 12z GFS looks to be about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z NAM about 0.45" mix for ORD. 12z GFS looks to be about the same. Nice FZRA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Nice FZRA event. Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 this is a mostly rain event for chicago Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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