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Another NH Low Near 930 MB Within 2 Weeks


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What is interesting about the PAC low is that it tele-connected to an upper tough in the northeast U.S. for the 20-24th. It followed the classic "typhoon recurvature east of Japan rule".  The weak low over the Philippines went bombastic on its path east of Japan on the 14-15th on its way into the north Pacific.  According to the rule, the 6-10 day forecast will feature an upper trough in the northeast US and below normal temps. A very strong storm passing east of Japan on a track into the north Pacific can have the same tele-connecting effect in the cold season as a recurving typhoon.

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What is interesting about the PAC low is that it tele-connected to an upper tough in the northeast U.S. for the 20-24th. It followed the classic "typhoon recurvature east of Japan rule".  The weak low over the Philippines went bombastic on its path east of Japan on the 14-15th on its way into the north Pacific.  According to the rule, the 6-10 day forecast will feature an upper trough in the northeast US and below normal temps. A very strong storm passing east of Japan on a track into the north Pacific can have the same tele-connecting effect in the cold season as a recurving typhoon.

 

Yup. Did a paper on that last year. Same huge upper level divergence and latent heat release with an extratropical bomb in the W Pac as a recurving typhoon ... will trigger Rossby wave dispersion into North America

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The 930 mb low has spawned multiple spin-off waves giving a week's worth of active weather for Ireland and the U.K., last night the third in a sequence of strong wind events with a squall line hit parts of Ireland and knocked out power as well as doing a fair amount of minor damage in a path from the southwest including the city of Cork towards Dublin although the main effects were northwest of the capital. Winds gusted to 64 knots at Mace Head and to 61 knots at Dunsany which is not a highly exposed coastal location. This link shows current lightning activity with the same front in central Europe.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/foudre.php

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The 1000mb height was 4 or 5 standard deviations below normal, twice in about a week. See these normalized anomaly plots:

 

attachicon.gif1000hght_stdanom_arctic_30.gif

 

attachicon.gif1000hght_stdanom_arctic_54.gif

 

 

Thanks for posting those. It looks like the low made it down to about 940 mb yesterday which is a -5.09 anomaly.

There was also record moisture for late in January ahead of the system as it was working north

through the Eastern U.S.

 

 

 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/show.html?entrynum=120

 

A very moist air mass was entrained into the atmosphere ahead of the frontal passage with extreme QPF’s (precipitable values) that exceeded any previously observed in January over the upper Midwest and Northeast. Caribou, Maine for instance reached a value of 1.21” at 7 a.m. on January 30th, tying their record for atmospheric moisture content last set on Jan. 14, 2005. Record January QPF’s were observed also in Detroit, Michigan: 1.21" old record: 1.20" on Jan. 11, 1975 and Lincoln, IL: 1.46" old Record: 1.35" Jan. 12, 1960. 

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