psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah actually verbatim about 6" for Baltimore. I was basing my assessment more on what that track would probably imply over what the precip output of the model says. With the primary getting to Pitt my guess is a warm layer might cut into snow accumulations a bit but its not a bad track and we can do well with that. I would take it in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 We're all good. Keep calm and model-watch on. One. Run. Keep. Calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I was basing my assessment more on what that track would probably imply over what the precip output of the model says. With the primary getting to Pitt my guess is a warm layer might cut into snow accumulations a bit but its not a bad track and we can do well with that. I would take it in this winter. Of course, I'd expect with that though not really a warm layer N of BWI, UKMET takes a 996 into S OH at 96, then its shown 987 in ME at 120. Precip at 72 with a 1007 in OK breaking out all the way over to GA. Would imply a nice run, as 96 has isobars stretched to the S. I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 With the NAM, UKMET, and GGEM all staying the snow course, I wouldn't worry too much. The GFS does this sort of thing all the time. Euro should hold OK. This one seems fairly locked-in for a couple of inches of powder, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 With the NAM, UKMET, and GGEM all staying the snow course, I wouldn't worry too much. The GFS does this sort of thing all the time. Euro should hold OK. This one seems fairly locked-in for a couple of inches of powder, at least. And at 4 days, 12z GFS has better verification rate than the 00z. That's grasping but, whatever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteVorticity Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 gfs ens are cold.....i'm wondering if these runs keep trending colder how that will affect things..suppressed and dry? 3-6 inches area wide per gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 gfs ens are cold.....i'm wondering if these runs keep trending colder how that will affect things..suppressed and dry? Mean around .35-.4 overall. OP weighted in there a lot though, and thats only about .2. Something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 gfs ens are cold.....i'm wondering if these runs keep trending colder how that will affect things..suppressed and dry? Isnt that kinda what the euro showed at 12z..... - dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 gfs ens are cold.....i'm wondering if these runs keep trending colder how that will affect things..suppressed and dry? There's quite a few higher qpf members as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 no..the euro had a storm...the GFS has an undefined wave sorry should have highlighted that I was referring to trending colder thus more suppressed...kinda like the euro not talking about the storm strength per Se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 As long as we get 3", I would be content after the piddling 1" then mix/rain events the last 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 UKMET doesn't look too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 if the euro goes soft, I'm abandoning this thread and going back to the old one who started the 1/26/11 thread? Ji I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 UKMET does some crazy things with the SLP at this range... I wouldn't worry too much about it. UKMET doesn't look too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If it ends up dry and/or suppressed I will forever complain about too much cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 looks great to me...it has a storm...I love it agree. basically this is a frozen event. we just need precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 JMA makes the NAM look like it completes its run in 30 secondsCRAS looks dry http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_pcp_084m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 JMA makes the NAM look like it completes its run in 30 seconds what does JMA show. it was wet at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 CRAS looks dry http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_pcp_084m.gif For all we know its actually becoming a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 LMAO Ian. Safe to assume too much cold will become the new sun angle post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I can't bear to watch euro tonight. .18 coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I can't bear to watch euro tonight. .18 coming I don't think so..... .44 at DCA I'm thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I can't bear to watch euro tonight. .18 coming Stay Positive! http://imgflip.com/i/g2yn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Canadian looks ridiculous actually, 21mm for DC-BAL corridor all snow. Wow. A la: .8"+ QPF, right in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 euro looks good through 18hrs....lots of cold air in place Last thing I want to hear is euro coming in colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Canadian looks ridiculous actually, 21mm for DC-BAL corridor all snow. Wow. A la: .8"+ QPF, right in the bullseye. The Canadien always looks ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Last thing I want to hear is euro coming in colder -5.3 2m -20.1 850's at 18z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Matt, are you stuck at 18z? I am. Edit: NM, but I'm only out to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Back from Vegas...looks like a storm is approaching. Possibly biggest/best of the year? And I won't be here. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 -10 2m -20.4 850's at 12z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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