Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the nam's gotta be closing in on a run where it pumps out 1.5" liquid over the city as snow the GFS could be right...it happened on 1/16/03....had a WSW and same thing....flying V formation into a frigid air mass and got 1/2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Btw, not a half of flake here. Disappointment all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the GFS could be right...it happened on 1/17/03....had a WSW and same thing....flying V formation into a frigid air mass and got 1/2" Fugly. Too cold to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So when the models show some consistency they stop the flights? Just wondering. I dont know how the process works in all honesty. But the model has been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That was a horrid run. Bone dry, would gladly take the 18z and be happy. Hope this isn't a trend to dry this thing up. 90 minutes we will have a better idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the GFS could be right...it happened on 1/16/03....had a WSW and same thing....flying V formation into a frigid air mass and got 1/2" Do you give it any real possibility Matt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS never consolidates the northern and southern systems. It keeps the northern system dominant like it did a few days ago but without the more northern track, kind of split the difference. Either way we need a more consolidated system AND for it to take the more southern route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the GFS could be right...it happened on 1/16/03....had a WSW and same thing....flying V formation into a frigid air mass and got 1/2 Yeah I'd be worried at least a little about that happening. The GFS ens members were suggesting it yesterday at least. Plus the Euro ens mean has been drier than ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Very good point meddler, makes sense. I have seen consistency in the Pac s/w. I agree with you, the GFS has just been all over the place. It's been pretty consistent with the low placement in the Ohio Valley. It's just had two dry runs. I guess that low in MN stays dominant too long. Hell, I don't know. It's a long way to Friday. Surely we expected some bumps in the road. I just don't want a repeat of last weeks nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Do you give it any real possibility Matt? of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah I'd be worried at least a little about that happening. The GFS ens members were suggesting it yesterday at least. Plus the Euro ens mean has been drier than ops. The 18z members were pretty nice overall, and additionally I've never seen the Euro ens wetter than the op, just for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Bold new prediction!!! DCA: 0-6" IAD: 0-6"BWI: 0-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Mike DeFino says throw it out http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=4331&topicid=17769&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The 18z members were pretty nice overall, and additionally I've never seen the Euro ens wetter than the op, just for me. well i'm usually cautious with systems coming in from the west especially if the vort isnt perfectly placed but my winter storm library in my brain is small. even rain has a tendency to disappear from that angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Bold new prediction!!! DCA: 0-6" IAD: 0-6" BWI: 0-6" that was my forecast last storm.. it worked pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I know its the CMC but maybe this will comfort the weenies for a bit until the Euro comes in. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Bold new prediction!!! DCA: 0-6" IAD: 0-6" BWI: 0-6" I like it. Cover all the bases. So if BWI gets 7 is that a bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I like it. Cover all the bases. So if BWI gets 7 is that a bust? Definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Over 10 frames with over 1mm in Baltimore, one near 3mm. Does something weird with the low but that thing usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 God help the thread starter if this actually does crumble as a threat What a downer run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Over 10 frames with over 1mm in Baltimore, one near 3mm. Does something weird with the low but that thing usually does. actually its believable...gets the primary to about Pitt then redevelops it over the delmarva. Not that unusual and wouldnt be a bad track. We do ok with CAD with that track. Would imply a nice 3-5" type event for DC and Baltimore, maybe a bit more for northern burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 My temp just went up 2 degrees? some front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 actually its believable...gets the primary to about Pitt then redevelops it over the delmarva. Not that unusual and wouldnt be a bad track. We do ok with CAD with that track. Would imply a nice 3-5" type event for DC and Baltimore, maybe a bit more for northern burbs. Yeah actually verbatim about 6" for Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 actually its believable...gets the primary to about Pitt then redevelops it over the delmarva. Not that unusual and wouldnt be a bad track. We do ok with CAD with that track. Would imply a nice 3-5" type event for DC and Baltimore, maybe a bit more for northern burbs. Yeah it looks like 9 hours of snow followed by 2 hours of some kind of ice out here. I would take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah actually verbatim about 6" for Baltimore. I was basing my assessment more on what that track would probably imply over what the precip output of the model says. With the primary getting to Pitt my guess is a warm layer might cut into snow accumulations a bit but its not a bad track and we can do well with that. I would take it in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 We're all good. Keep calm and model-watch on. One. Run. Keep. Calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I was basing my assessment more on what that track would probably imply over what the precip output of the model says. With the primary getting to Pitt my guess is a warm layer might cut into snow accumulations a bit but its not a bad track and we can do well with that. I would take it in this winter. Of course, I'd expect with that though not really a warm layer N of BWI, UKMET takes a 996 into S OH at 96, then its shown 987 in ME at 120. Precip at 72 with a 1007 in OK breaking out all the way over to GA. Would imply a nice run, as 96 has isobars stretched to the S. I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 With the NAM, UKMET, and GGEM all staying the snow course, I wouldn't worry too much. The GFS does this sort of thing all the time. Euro should hold OK. This one seems fairly locked-in for a couple of inches of powder, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 With the NAM, UKMET, and GGEM all staying the snow course, I wouldn't worry too much. The GFS does this sort of thing all the time. Euro should hold OK. This one seems fairly locked-in for a couple of inches of powder, at least. And at 4 days, 12z GFS has better verification rate than the 00z. That's grasping but, whatever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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