wxmeddler Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It's because we made a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wow.... Dry run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Just the usual GFS nonsense. Unless the Euro follows. Then it is storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 <.25 everywhere except lower eastern shore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 500 vort is a little further north, no? looks like that's causing the drier run...maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 00z GFS looks slower, colder and snowy. Coming in line with Euro. Well, It's better for us-- maybe. Looked like a 2-4 ending as ZR. Haven't seen soundings yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well considering at the surface the GFS doesn't really have anything like before, it's just ridiculous. Way slower, and h5 doesn't match. The model has been wavering like no other, 6z way south and sooo weak, 12z way north, 18z south of there, 0z 12 hours slower and weaker than a way amped 18z run with the most qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Friday at 18z there's still no precip in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Quite a bit different than 36hrs ago. No amplification, no second disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Quite a bit different than 36hrs ago. No amplification, no second disturbance. Or six hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ouch....DCA gets .14 verbatim..... -4 surface with -1.5 850's during the snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ouch....DCA gets .14 verbatim..... -4 surface with -1.5 850's during the snowfall. 75-1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I am getting a snow shower right now. GFS loses the storm like it always does 4 days out. Pretty confident everyone is going to see frozen on Friday. Finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Lots of time left. If Euro follows next, then we can mourn this one and move on. We know this winter is squirrely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I am getting a snow shower right now. GFS loses the storm like it always does 4 days out. Pretty confident everyone is going to see frozen on Friday. Finally. Glad to see confidence. This was my big worry, a dried up prune. Maybe it's just a run like 6z was. New data perhaps? Someone mentioned flights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 6,12,and 18 were all different with the timing of the shortwave rotating around the the polar ULL. 0z was just another solution of timing. Nothing surprising about this run. Any precip that passes by should be frozen and we should just all be thankful for that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Glad to see confidence. This was my big worry, a dried up prune. Maybe it's just a run like 6z was. New data perhaps? Someone mentioned flights? See my point to that is its for the NCEP models, and the Euro is not one. And I've read there was ingestion before too. If its that, then crap, but I'd blame it on the GFS really wavering on this one. All models have really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Glad to see confidence. This was my big worry, a dried up prune. Maybe it's just a run like 6z was. New data perhaps? Someone mentioned flights? I know they sent out flights for the past two 00z's but I'm not sure if they did for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I know they sent out flights for the past two 00z's but I'm not sure if they did for this one. They did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 nextwe suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 we suck too cold to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 we suck lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Thank god the euro comes out in 90 minutes...if this was the last run of the night, I would have nightmares...at least if the euro sucks I can stay up for the 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Pretty easy to understand why they keep sending flights. The model is not performing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 They did. Not sure that those flights would help with our "snowstorm" here. The timing on the pacific shortwave has been fairly consistent, its the energy rotating around the polar ULL up over Hudson Bay that is the key here. NOAA's Winter Storm Reconnaissance program doesn't fly up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Thank god the euro comes out in 90 minutes...if this was the last run of the night, I would have nightmares...at least if the euro sucks I can stay up for the 6z NAMthe nam's gotta be closing in on a run where it pumps out 1.5" liquid over the city as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Glad to see confidence. This was my big worry, a dried up prune. Maybe it's just a run like 6z was. New data perhaps? Someone mentioned flights? yeah...I hope nobody is still worried about track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not sure that those flights would help with our "snowstorm" here. The timing on the pacific shortwave has been fairly consistent, its the energy rotating around the polar ULL up over Hudson Bay that is the key here. NOAA's Winter Storm Reconnaissance program doesn't fly up there. Very good point meddler, makes sense. I have seen consistency in the Pac s/w. I agree with you, the GFS has just been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Pretty easy to understand why they keep sending flights. The model is not performing well. So when the models show some consistency they stop the flights? Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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