Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I am on board in that I think we have a 50/50 chance of our first area wide greater then 2" event in a LONG time. The other day I was just getting frustrated with the whole "we need the cold to snow" comments being thrown around. If this works out it will be because the northern stream is sending that clipper in ahead of it to reinforce the trough in the east, and then hopefully wont get in the way too much and yank this thing to our north. I do think this is our best chance since the January 2011 storm for a significant snowfall in our area, but its still only 50/50 at this range. I am down on the winter because I am not a huge fan of February snow unless its going to be a big storm. One thing I like living up here is we usually can hold onto snowcover for a couple weeks at a time in good patterns. Last winter and now this one has been a total waste in that department. And once into Feb its hard even up here to really hold snowcover, the sun just starts getting too strong. Even a sunny day with a high in the 30's will take out snowcover in February. Sorry for my miserable outlook lately. I will try to keep it in check from now on. Please do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Per FB..... "Wxrisk.com COMMENTS ON 0Z NAM AT 84 HRS .. ABOUT JAN 24-25 EVENT... ignore it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the amount of discussion of the 84hr NAM and DGEX and NOGAPS and Canadian is hilarious Couldnt help myself haha used to 12-18 inch forecasts up north with 3 foot weenie drifts hey I'll take whatever I could get down this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Couldnt help myself haha used to 12-18 inch forecasts up north with 3 foot weenie drifts hey I'll take whatever I could get down this way Down here....12-18cm's maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Please do.... He needs another trash can lid to the head to reset his mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'd say so..... So Euro/GFS/NAM/UKMET vs NOGAPS/CMC? That isn't even a fight. The NOGAPS and Canadian are total trash and shouldn't be mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 FWIW, it's a shame the NAM doesn't go further than hr84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 FWIW, it's a shame the NAM doesn't go further than hr84. great post!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the nam doesn't suck per se it's just not supposed to be used very heavily for a synoptic winter storm so far out.The NAM can be very useful if someone has the skill to know how to use it. It has the ability to pick out meso scale features the global models cannot. It can do much better with things like CAD and thermal profiles. For the larger scale things like storm track and such use the globals..but the NAM can help figure out some details within the storms. You just have to know how to adjust to for "reality" when it is usually off the reservation in some major way with regards to the location of its features. Too many people do not know how to use it, so they just see its way off on the SLP location and declare it is garbage, it is garbage if you are trying to use it for storm tracks of synoptic events 72 hours out. I actually with they only ran it to 48 hours like in the old ETA days...would cut down on the crap we have to read about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I miss the 80s and no model runs to make me like a meth addict in theory, it's not much different than tracking the weather channel or your local weather forecasts back in the day. it's just easier now and with all the different model outputs, it's hard to keep the emotions in check. the best thing to do is probably accept that at 4 days out, the model runs will change...and change again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 great post!! ? Are you referring to the fact that the NAM typically sucks this far out, and would be even worse if it went longer? If so, it certainly doesn't hurt that it's on board.....does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I draw the line when 84hr nam snow maps are being extrapolated. Snow is serious bidness and all but that is pure weenie madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 in theory, it's not much different than tracking the weather channel or your local weather forecasts back in the day. it's just easier now and with all the different model outputs, it's hard to keep the emotions in check. the best thing to do is probably accept that at 4 days out, the model runs will change...and change again. Back then all you really had was about a 48-72 hour lead time and specifics could really be thrown out the door. It was more, there's a chance for snow. It ate at my weenie heart. Then came the 90s and the ETA...and 93 and it's long lead for something big which made me think we had reached the future and would know our snowstorms from 7 days out everytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 ? Are you referring to the fact that the NAM typically sucks this far out, and would be even worse if it went longer? If so, it certainly doesn't hurt that it's on board.....does it? Im pretty sure he was being sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Im pretty sure he was being sarcastic. I'm sure he was being sarcastic...... But to an extent, so was I...... Hence my comment beginning with "fwiw". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'd say so..... So Euro/GFS/NAM/UKMET vs NOGAPS/CMC?CMC isn't a miss its just not as good...it has a nice front end thump snow before going to ice. Keep in mind also the 12z CMC trended a good 100 miles south of the 0z from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Back then all you really had was about a 48-72 hour lead time and specifics could really be thrown out the door. It was more, there's a chance for snow. It ate at my weenie heart. Then came the 90s and the ETA...and 93 and it's long lead for something big which made me think we had reached the future and would know our snowstorms from 7 days out everytime i think another thing is that we're now able to match the look of a model output with what we've experienced, so when you see a blue blob over dc, you start picturing 4-6" of snow. then, if the next model run dries up, it dashes your hopes. i would imagine most meteorologists are able to curb their emotions easier because they have a lot more knowledge and aren't hugging each model run. they see a lot more details and understand atmospheric physics a lot more than the typical armchair weather forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i think another thing is that we're now able to match the look of a model output with what we've experienced, so when you see a blue blob over dc, you start picturing 4-6" of snow. then, if the next model run dries up, it dashes your hopes. i would imagine most meteorologists are able to curb their emotions easier because they have a lot more knowledge and aren't hugging each model run. they see a lot more details and understand atmospheric physics a lot more than the typical armchair weather forecaster. You've solved your own puzzle here. Don't take each run at face value, know local climate, know model strengths and weaknesses and we won't have many issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wondering what the 0Z GFS shows, and will it continue the south trend? the clipper at 60 hrs looks stronger to me and pushes the -10 850 temp line pretty far to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 He needs another trash can lid to the head to reset his mood.I am more upset that there is no decent skiing anywhere in the continental US right now because it has been so dry everywhere this month. Not only are we not getting snow, pretty much nowhere is. I am in need of a powder day big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You've solved your own puzzle here. Don't take each run at face value, know local climate, know model strengths and weaknesses and we won't have many issues. yea i try to learn as much as i can on the side. sometimes, i wish i went back for a grad degree so i knew the what the heck i was looking at. whenever i try to act like i know what i'm talking about i see posts made by actual meteorologists on here and i then crawl back into my hole lol. after living here for most of my whole life, though, i do a decent job sniffing out a potential bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 0z GFS coming in colder than previous runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS now advertising a 1042 high over MN.... Looks really cold this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 4am Friday...northern wave in central MN. Southern wave around Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 yea i try to learn as much as i can on the side. sometimes, i wish i went back for a grad degree so i knew the what the heck i was looking at. whenever i try to act like i know what i'm talking about i see posts made by actual meteorologists on here and i then crawl back into my hole lol. after living here my whole life, though, i do a decent job sniffing out a potential bust. Hah, well-- the big thing is never take a model output literal. The rest is gravy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 00z GFS looks slower, colder and snowy. Coming in line with Euro. EDIT: Nevermind.. weird run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS has like no low, I mean euro-esque just like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS has like no low, I mean euro-esque just like crap. Slow, look at 700mb at 78... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Slow, look at 700mb at 78... Yes, except dry, very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS has like no low, I mean euro-esque just like crap. hopefully just a hiccup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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