usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it's 100 mi SE of 18z.... Now we've got the NAM at the end of its run looking really nice for what that is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 TBH , I wouldn't really care if it had a 984MB low over CLE or didnt have the storm at all Why? You love the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Instantweathermaps.com is good too. We are starting to steamroll, you, mea-- swva and the new guy. A couple LYH guys show up when it snows. (Except last week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Now we've got the NAM at the end of its run looking really nice for what that is worth. I'd say so..... So Euro/GFS/NAM/UKMET vs NOGAPS/CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Great omega over us at 84 - too bad the NAM doesnt go to 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Now we've got the NAM at the end of its run looking really nice for what that is worth. Not much but you know it makes all us weenies in here feel better, and admit it you like it too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'd say so..... So Euro/GFS/NAM/UKMET vs NOGAPS/CMC? I mean 12z GEM was about 4-5" for Baltimore, DC pretty much too. NOGAPS I haven't seen, usually south and progressive, so thats my assumption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ncep mag site is the best I've seen for looping 3 hr panels of gfs. You can manipulate animation speed and manually click through as well. Unless I've missed a better site, ncep can't be beat for comparing the last 4 runs of the gfs side by side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The only takeaway I get from the NAM is it is now coming in line with the others. That just adds to the confidence level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We are starting to steamroll, you, mea-- swva and the new guy. A couple LYH guys show up when it snows. (Except last week) I always thought I was the only Roanoker here. Glad to see others from SWVA are showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Definitely has the CAD picked up-- 20's at surface way down into NC-- Light on the qpf-- could be a dry slot issue down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I mean 12z GEM was about 4-5" for Baltimore, DC pretty much too. NOGAPS I haven't seen, usually south and progressive, so thats my assumption I guess you're right.....and who cares about the NOGAPS honestly. So pretty much everyone is on board I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 uggh...i'm not gonna sleep much this week...but hopefully it'll be worth it. we average a little under 3" of liquid in january...the cold part is the most difficult one for us...which we seem to have in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The NAM doesn't look too bad, considering its skill (or lack thereof) between 60 and 84 hours. Just keep in mind the EC and EC ensembles are leading the way......yet again ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 At 84, NAM surface temps below freezing close to the NC/SC border in central and western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Definitely a move SE.. ~100 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Definitely has the CAD picked up-- 20's at surface way down into NC-- Light on the qpf-- could be a dry slot issue down this way. Not quite there for us yet, but heading in the right direction. On to the 00z GFS! Definitely looks cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I guess you're right.....and who cares about the NOGAPS honestly. So pretty much everyone is on board I guess. NOGAPS is north with the low, but is a nice hit really overall for frozen precip in general. So we are looking not too bad. 18z NOGAPS definitely on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not quite there for us yet, but heading in the right direction. On to the 00z GFS! Definitely looks cold. Yeah, it's the nam-- I'm not worried. I think we end up w C to 2 with ICE on top or 3-5, ending as ice. All frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the amount of discussion of the 84hr NAM and DGEX and NOGAPS and Canadian is hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NOGAPS is north with the low, but is a nice hit really overall for frozen precip in general. So we are looking not too bad. 18z NOGAPS definitely on board. There is only one thing worse than reporting the NAM at 84-- and you did it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the amount of discussion of the 84hr NAM and DGEX and NOGAPS and Canadian is hilarious Trust me, I didn't want to, but he asked and it least I could add a good result to the camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the amount of discussion of the 84hr NAM and DGEX and NOGAPS and Canadian is hilarious Two models with the lowest verification scores. The sting of last week must have worn off quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Has anyone checked the CRAS? I am concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the amount of discussion of the 84hr NAM and DGEX and NOGAPS and Canadian is hilarious It's the most important winter wx event in the ma in over 700 days. I would welcome a cras and jma pbp. Just this once though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 the amount of discussion of the 84hr NAM and DGEX and NOGAPS and Canadian is hilarious whoa whoa whoa.....hey, there's power in numbers, even if a few of them are..... "special". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i think pretty much all the skeptics except maybe psuhoff are on board to some degree. he seems to think it will never snow again... which means he's getting about 8-10 from this one.I am on board in that I think we have a 50/50 chance of our first area wide greater then 2" event in a LONG time. The other day I was just getting frustrated with the whole "we need the cold to snow" comments being thrown around. If this works out it will be because the northern stream is sending that clipper in ahead of it to reinforce the trough in the east, and then hopefully wont get in the way too much and yank this thing to our north. I do think this is our best chance since the January 2011 storm for a significant snowfall in our area, but its still only 50/50 at this range. I am down on the winter because I am not a huge fan of February snow unless its going to be a big storm. One thing I like living up here is we usually can hold onto snowcover for a couple weeks at a time in good patterns. Last winter and now this one has been a total waste in that department. And once into Feb its hard even up here to really hold snowcover, the sun just starts getting too strong. Even a sunny day with a high in the 30's will take out snowcover in February. Sorry for my miserable outlook lately. I will try to keep it in check from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Has anyone checked the CRAS? I am concerned.the cras seems better lately. i go to it when there is no hope left and it usually confirms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It's the most important winter wx event in the ma in over 700 days. I would welcome a cras and jma pbp. Just this once though... That's an IMBY statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 in terms of strength and duration this is a 1 in 15 year air mass....get us QPF and the rest will take care of itself....Storms that have come on the heels of similar air masses dumped 6-8".....1/82, 1/88.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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