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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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Just not very optimistic on the chances... Dew points are low and the radar isn't looking that good right now. I'm not seeing more than some snow showers around sunset in the area tonight.

 

 

DPs down here are in the single digits and there's already been reports of light snow falling with the first little band that moved through here. Don't say it's over by just looking at the radar and DPs.

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This analysis is poor. 

 

I think my dewpoint was about 6 the other night when snow started.  In Jan 2010, it was 16 degrees in Winch, with a dp of 2.  The instant that echos appeared overhead, it started snowing.

 

I agree with you, using the dewpoint and radar can lead you to incorrect conclusions sometimes.

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Just not very optimistic on the chances... Dew points are low and the radar isn't looking that good right now. I'm not seeing more than some snow showers around sunset in the area tonight.

 

 

Short memory eh? Do you not remember the other night when dews were pretty low too and snow started falling pretty soon after returns were shown? I don't think anybody was thinking more than a few inches for us. 

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Just not very optimistic on the chances... Dew points are low and the radar isn't looking that good right now. I'm not seeing more than some snow showers around sunset in the area tonight.

 

Dont know what radar you are using. But this one looks much better than I thought it would.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php

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The difference is that Wednesday nights storm didn't have to deal with as dry of an airmass as we have right now. This combined with the poor reflection on the radar right now and the downsloping effect of the mountains leads me to believe that the models are seeing virga and that the immediate DC metro area will see minimum effects from this system, and that a dusting is more likely than 1" or more. Maybe I'm a pessimist and my analysis is wrong, but I'm going out on a limb and saying that this isn't going to be what some here think it's going to be.

Do you remember what radar looked like the other night? Most managed an inch from that. Some that were lucky enough to be under heavier returns, received more. 1-3 today is certainly possible. At the very least, I think most equal the inch they received Wednesday night/Thursday pre dawn.

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The difference is that Wednesday nights storm didn't have to deal with as dry of an airmass as we have right now. This combined with the poor reflection on the radar right now and the downsloping effect of the mountains leads me to believe that the models are seeing virga and that the immediate DC metro area will see minimum effects from this system, and that a dusting is more likely than 1" or more. Maybe I'm a pessimist and my analysis is wrong, but I'm going out on a limb and saying that this isn't going to be what some here think it's going to be.

 

It's your storm. You can't bail now.

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The difference is that Wednesday nights storm didn't have to deal with as dry of an airmass as we have right now. This combined with the poor reflection on the radar right now and the downsloping effect of the mountains leads me to believe that the models are seeing virga and that the immediate DC metro area will see minimum effects from this system, and that a dusting is more likely than 1" or more. Maybe I'm a pessimist and my analysis is wrong, but I'm going out on a limb and saying that this isn't going to be what some here think it's going to be.

 

 

Well, that's not exactly right either.  The rh here is higher than it was Wed when it started snowing.

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Well, that's not exactly right either.  The rh here is higher than it was Wed when it started snowing.

 

Yea, pretty much. I don't know why such a focus on dews. Yea, when we're 35 degrees with 25 dews we have a lot of problems because of evap cooling and the simple fact that warmer airmasses can hold more water content. Cold airmasses can't hold nearly the amount of liquid. 50% rh and snow reaches the ground when you have 20 degree temps and 5 degree dews.

 

 

 

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I'm not sure that today's event despite the cold will have as high a ratios as the last one.  Dendrites have the highest ratios.  Dendrites form with temps in the -13.5 to -16.5 degree range.  Plates form at -10 to -13.5 and columns for at -8 to -10.

 

Look at today's sounding for 21Z

 

post-70-0-95961800-1359126415_thumb.png

 

Note that most of the sounding is in the plate and or column temp range not the dendrite range. 

 

below is a graphic that can be used as a rough guide for ratios.  We're lucky that this will be a deposition storm with no riming which will keep the ratios higher than 10 to 1 but they aren't likely to be 20-1 (at least in theory).  I'll be interested in reports today of crystal types (plates, column or dendrites) that people see today while taking their jebwalks

 

post-70-0-50244400-1359126637_thumb.gif

 

 

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Those maps seem pretty worthless to me.  Just my opinion.

Youre in the less the 1" aren't you? :cry:

 

Just kidding, I have noticed they have gotten better but they change often...who knows...we all know there is going to be a hole somewhere...NAM just moved it West a bit. GFS had it squarely around my neck

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