Ian Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 So they alternate DC in the darker green, which means we'll be back in it again soon im not even sure it's a useful product i just like sref. plus there's not much to look at except exactly how little precip we might get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 our updated snow map if anyone cares: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/light-snow-on-track-for-friday-afternoon-and-evening/2013/01/24/9435c70c-669f-11e2-9e1b-07db1d2ccd5b_blog.html#pagebreak btw,iammrben - chemtrail ken posted on capitalweather.com (before move to WaPo) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 our updated snow map if anyone cares: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/light-snow-on-track-for-friday-afternoon-and-evening/2013/01/24/9435c70c-669f-11e2-9e1b-07db1d2ccd5b_blog.html#pagebreak btw,iammrben - chemtrail ken posted on capitalweather.com (before move to WaPo) I think that seems more than reasonable. On the upside, we don't have to deal with the old "YOU SAID 3 INCHES" but two of it melts due to warm ground temps... Nobody ever buys the old snowgauge "excuse" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 My gut tells me this little system still has some punch. Particularly when looking at the current 500s compared to what was modeled. I think 2" is a good ballpark number for those just outside the cusp of the major cities. A WWA wouldn't surprise me in the next couple of hours with a '1-3' statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Sterling AFD: (EDIT - I keep trying to link the phrase AFD but it doesn't like it, so here's the long form)http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=offSNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAYAFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AROUND NOON ANDEVENTUALLY INTO THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREASBETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM. THIS IS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM AND THE FORCINGFROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...SOME SOUTHERNSTREAM MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR ABOUT ATHREE TO SIX HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW. SNOW WILL BE LIGHT TOOCCASIONALLY MODERATE DUE TO THE WEAKER FORCING. SNOWFALLACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH.SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEARTHE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE LIFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER CLOSER TOTHE VORTMAX.DUE TO THE START TIME HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAYAFTERNOON...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED FORLOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. WILL MONITOR THE 00ZGUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMOREMETROPOLITAN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH --- Seems fairly consistent with what's reflected on current live obs. WWA out before dawn I'd suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 .07 on the Euro again for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Although the radar appears to be filling in around Indiana, Fort Wayne shows no precip reaching the ground (though radar has been returning SN for about an hour) I don't see this as a huge issue, dewpoints are running about 10 degrees behind 2m, and mid-levels are slowly headed for a warm up. This leads me to believe that though ground reports say 'no snow after an hour' in Indiana, our ground reports won't be far behind radar returns thus increasing chance for accumulation. I'm up at 2am for a ~2" snowfall. If it weren't for my Florida roots and my love of snow...Some might call me/us crazy. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 winter weather advisory for dc and vicinity: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MDZ009&warncounty=MDC031&firewxzone=MDZ009&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 3z SREF Mean: DCA: .15 BWI: .17 IAD: .13 3z SREF Range: (Excluding obvious outliers) DCA: .01 to .23 BWI: .02 to .22 IAD: .03 to .21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 3z SREF Mean: DCA: .15 BWI: .17 IAD: .13 3z SREF Range: (Excluding obvious outliers) DCA: .01 to .23 BWI: .02 to .22 IAD: .03 to .21 wow, that mean is pretty darn good Euro has .1" for BWI but .06" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 wow, that mean is pretty darn good Euro has .1" for BWI but .06" for DCA It time to hug the highest qpf model and discard all others because of convective feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 10z rap looks decent if your expecting an inch or a tad more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It time to hug the highest qpf model and discard all others because of convective feedback issues. I just looked at the srefs and they look pretty good imby that hole out to the west/sw is a prob for folks west of DCA, but they always seem to pull it out so I think we will all be similar until you get onto the eastern shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I just looked at the srefs and they look pretty good imby that hole out to the west/sw is a prob for folks west of DCA, but they always seem to pull it out so I think we will all be similar until you get onto the eastern shore I just want to pull a rabbit out of the hat and get my widespread 2" forecast to verify. I know the odds are against me but for sanity's and bad luck's sake.....can w just have this one? I mean come on man! Even if dca gets 2 they won't report it. They'll prob move the board out of the hangar after zwyts' fb post but they end up placing it behind the jet warm up area and de-icing filling station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 10z rap looks decent if your expecting an inch or a tad more. 11z looks better to my weenie eyes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Snow hole, yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 My sister and family in St Marys Co. are doing well -- they got about 5" from the first one, and are expecting up to 3" from this one. Not bad! If we get 1" again in Germantown, that will make five snows for the winter, with all five being 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It time to hug the highest qpf model and discard all others because of convective feedback issues. Exactly, Bob. That's forecasting at its best. Seriously, its hard to say if we see 1, 2, or none. It's almost like you can see a nva split already on radar. If I could have one wish for the remainder of the winter it would be that no threat would ever show itself outside 3 days again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Exactly, Bob. That's forecasting at its best. Seriously, its hard to say if we see 1, 2, or none. It's almost like you can see a nva split already on radar. If I could have one wish for the remainder of the winter it would be that no threat would ever show itself outside 3 days again. There will be some lift associated with the vort even though it doesn't take the best track. I think 1" for most is a safe bet. Just hoping for a surprise because the next threat is a slim chance at a glaze of ice monday night and then highs approaching 60 on wed. I probably need the break to be honest. Investing so much time in total crap events is embarrassing. lol As for the 3 day thing...in a perfect world....we've been doing this for years and anything and everything "interesting" will be tracked. We're a very strange group here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z rap looks good again @ 500 / 700 for a 2 hour period of "decent" snow. At least it's going to fall when it's daylight or when I'm not supposed to be asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 i feel like the radar doesn't look too bad...not as bad as i thought...maybe my expectations were pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Investing so much time in total crap events is embarrassing. lol Not a single event worth losing sleep over this winter and the models have been reasonable. It has been generally a dry, blustery winter. Today's event should drop visibility to the range of 1 1/2 to 3 miles for two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z rap looks good again @ 500 / 700 for a 2 hour period of "decent" snow. At least it's going to fall when it's daylight or when I'm not supposed to be asleep. What I'm looking at suggests "heaviest" (or not-lightest) between 3 and 6 this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 This thing will be in and out by 3pm....rush hour snow...lol...these things always come in faster it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 it would be kinda funny if the the dc snow hole was just a little glitch in the products the whole time. i can wish. the echoes around dayton are promising: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ILN&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 This thing will be in and out by 3pm....rush hour snow...lol...these things always come in faster it seems. I hope not. Taking the little one to my office for a lunch thing and I'd like to be home before the snow starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What I'm looking at suggests "heaviest" (or not-lightest) between 3 and 6 this evening? That's what I'm seeing. We gotta wait for the ns vort to get close enough. Until then it's hallucinations for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 and the 12z nam throws in a little dc love...and rockville too... Here's a blown up for mitch. I've been tough on him lately. Here's some love... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 and the 12z nam throws in a little dc love...and rockville too... namdcluv.JPG Well, there's our 1-3" as cold as it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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