aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Those maps seem pretty worthless to me. Just my opinion. Youre in the less the 1" aren't you? Just kidding, I have noticed they have gotten better but they change often...who knows...we all know there is going to be a hole somewhere...NAM just moved it West a bit. GFS had it squarely around my neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It's 17 degrees here with a dp of 5 but the humidity is up to 60%I think we went through the same silliness the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 No Love or petrovich...we might actually win the game Yeah...I may have to suit up tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Yeah...I may have to suit up tonight We need drought obs from you... dunno if you can post and play at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The snow hole lives..... http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet%3A&runTime=2013012510&plotName=acsnw_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR+Model+Fields+-+Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The snow hole lives..... http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet%3A&runTime=2013012510&plotName=acsnw_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR+Model+Fields+-+Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 lol. Is there anyway to keep this animation forever. this is classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 You know we're reaching a bit when we have to add snowflake type analysis into the mix to make the storm fun. I will take close up photos and post them for expert analysis. Another weenie post barrage incoming later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 MCPS just announced an early dismissal. Interesting choice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 FCPS getting out 2 hours early:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisse Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The snow hole lives..... http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet%3A&runTime=2013012510&plotName=acsnw_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR+Model+Fields+-+Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 That is ... quite apt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Feeling like 1-2" going to happen and hoping that we get a little extra lift for Bob's area wide 2-4". That DC snow hole is classic, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 You know we're reaching a bit when we have to add snowflake type analysis into the mix to make the storm fun. I will take close up photos and post them for expert analysis. Another weenie post barrage incoming later. If I get plated I'm going to be so pissed. Maybe that's what happened at DCA the other night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 You know we're reaching a bit when we have to add snowflake type analysis into the mix to make the storm fun. I will take close up photos and post them for expert analysis. Another weenie post barrage incoming later. Examples of each type would be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The snow hole lives..... http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013012510&plotName=acsnw_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR+Model+Fields+-+Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 Matches radar perfectly thus far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Excellent analysis, Wes! I haven't been at work since Wed, but even then I noticed the Roebber SLRs were closer to 14-15 to 1 vs. 20-1. That's still around 1.5-2 inches if the QPF breaks right, which would be slightly more than what I had the other day here in south AA County (1" on the nose in Crofton). I'm not sure that today's event despite the cold will have as high a ratios as the last one. Dendrites have the highest ratios. Dendrites form with temps in the -13.5 to -16.5 degree range. Plates form at -10 to -13.5 and columns for at -8 to -10. Look at today's sounding for 21Z Jan_25_sounding_2013.png Note that most of the sounding is in the plate and or column temp range not the dendrite range. below is a graphic that can be used as a rough guide for ratios. We're lucky that this will be a deposition storm with no riming which will keep the ratios higher than 10 to 1 but they aren't likely to be 20-1 (at least in theory). I'll be interested in reports today of crystal types (plates, column or dendrites) that people see today while taking their jebwalks snow_ratio_2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 FCPS just announced 2 hour early release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 lol. Is there anyway to keep this animation forever. this is classic New Avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 If I get plated I'm going to be so pissed. Maybe that's what happened at DCA the other night. I think their problem was warm plated or jet exhaust. The dendrite stuff worked well yesterday. It will be interesting to see how the ratios end up with the soundings looking less conducive to dendrites. We've still got deposition and there should be no riming so 15-1 ratios still are doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 FCPS just announced 2 hour early release. MCPS 2 1/2 hour early. What a crock. For one inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 MCPS 2 1/2 hour early. What a crock. For one inch. Well a potential inch coinciding with the evening rush can be trouble. Maybe a little overkill but there's no harm in being more safe. Plus, this also removes all after school activities and activity buses that would be on roads later (like 4:45) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 MCPS 2 1/2 hour early. What a crock. For one inch. Let the kids have some fun..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The two counties that just announce early dismissal receive zero inches on that HRRRRRRRRR image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loshjott Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Let the kids have some fun..... And the parents, who get to leave work early to meet their kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Let the kids have some fun..... I wonder if BethesdaWx is now in charge of school closing forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 C'mooooooooooooon OPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 epic. Well at least for me. Sorry nova. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Snow coming in..Snowing on I68 and RT219 according to weather camera. Snow making its way east along I68.. Also snowing at I68 and Savage Mtn but not in Cumberland yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
columbiawx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The two counties that just announce early dismissal receive zero inches on that HRRRRRRRRR image Howard County also just announced early dismissal... and is set to receive only slightly more than 0" based on the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 C'mooooooooooooon OPM we were already give unscheduled leave/telework, no way they'll let out early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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