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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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So they alternate DC in the darker green, which means we'll be back in it again soon :)

im not even sure it's a useful product i just like sref. plus there's not much to look at except exactly how little precip we might get.
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our updated snow map if anyone cares:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/light-snow-on-track-for-friday-afternoon-and-evening/2013/01/24/9435c70c-669f-11e2-9e1b-07db1d2ccd5b_blog.html#pagebreak

 

btw,iammrben - chemtrail ken posted on capitalweather.com (before move to WaPo)

I think that seems more than reasonable. On the upside, we don't have to deal with the old "YOU SAID 3 INCHES" but two of it melts due to warm ground temps...

 

Nobody ever buys the old snowgauge "excuse"

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Sterling AFD: (EDIT - I keep trying to link the phrase AFD but it doesn't like it, so here's the long form)http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=offSNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAYAFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AROUND NOON ANDEVENTUALLY INTO THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREASBETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM. THIS IS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM AND THE FORCINGFROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...SOME SOUTHERNSTREAM MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR ABOUT ATHREE TO SIX HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW. SNOW WILL BE LIGHT TOOCCASIONALLY MODERATE DUE TO THE WEAKER FORCING. SNOWFALLACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH.SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEARTHE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE LIFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER CLOSER TOTHE VORTMAX.DUE TO THE START TIME HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAYAFTERNOON...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED FORLOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. WILL MONITOR THE 00ZGUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMOREMETROPOLITAN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH

 

---

 

Seems fairly consistent with what's reflected on current live obs.  WWA out before dawn I'd suspect.

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Although the radar appears to be filling in around Indiana, Fort Wayne shows no precip reaching the ground (though radar has been returning SN for about an hour)

 

I don't see this as a huge issue, dewpoints are running about 10 degrees behind 2m, and mid-levels are slowly headed for a warm up. This leads me to believe that though ground reports say 'no snow after an hour' in Indiana, our ground reports won't be far behind radar returns thus increasing chance for accumulation.

 

I'm up at 2am for a ~2" snowfall. If it weren't for my Florida roots and my love of snow...Some might call me/us crazy.

 

Cheers!

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It time to hug the highest qpf model and discard all others because of convective feedback issues.

I just looked at the srefs and they look pretty good imby

that hole out to the west/sw is a prob for folks west of DCA, but they always seem to pull it out so I think we will all be similar until you get onto the eastern shore

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I just looked at the srefs and they look pretty good imby

that hole out to the west/sw is a prob for folks west of DCA, but they always seem to pull it out so I think we will all be similar until you get onto the eastern shore

I just want to pull a rabbit out of the hat and get my widespread 2" forecast to verify. I know the odds are against me but for sanity's and bad luck's sake.....can w just have this one? I mean come on man!

Even if dca gets 2 they won't report it. They'll prob move the board out of the hangar after zwyts' fb post but they end up placing it behind the jet warm up area and de-icing filling station.

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It time to hug the highest qpf model and discard all others because of convective feedback issues.

Exactly, Bob.  That's forecasting at its best.

 

Seriously, its hard to say if we see 1, 2, or none.  It's almost like you can see a nva split already on radar.

 

If I could have one wish for the remainder of the winter it would be that no threat would ever show itself outside 3 days again.

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Exactly, Bob.  That's forecasting at its best.

 

Seriously, its hard to say if we see 1, 2, or none.  It's almost like you can see a nva split already on radar.

 

If I could have one wish for the remainder of the winter it would be that no threat would ever show itself outside 3 days again.

 

There will be some lift associated with the vort even though it doesn't take the best track. I think 1" for most is a safe bet. Just hoping for a surprise because the next threat is a slim chance at a glaze of ice monday night and then highs approaching 60 on wed. I probably need the break to be honest. Investing so much time in total crap events is embarrassing. lol

 

As for the 3 day thing...in a perfect world....we've been doing this for years and anything and everything "interesting" will be tracked. We're a very strange group here. 

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