snowfan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Meh... Storm cancel. it was storm cancel before you started this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 it was storm cancel before when you started this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS will have it in an hour. Here's a hires sim clip showing good rates though. namsim.JPG Sorry Scuddz....I lied... He'll just have to get over it. Keep em coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The 13 RAP looks much better than the one I looked at this morning, probably the 9Z I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think 1-2 is a good forecast... maybe 3 if someone gets lucky and under a heavy band. I guess the NAM had .12 QPF at DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Just not very optimistic on the chances... Dew points are low and the radar isn't looking that good right now. I'm not seeing more than some snow showers around sunset in the area tonight. Having a bad day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The 13 RAP looks much better than the one I looked at this morning, probably the 9Z I guess. It's looked good all morning considering how tiny this event is. An encouraging sign on nam sim is that the entire area gets under decent rates for a time. Not some swiss cheese looking precip pattern. A decent shield for a couple hours. Obs are gonna pile up like ravens fan's tears next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Just not very optimistic on the chances... Dew points are low and the radar isn't looking that good right now. I'm not seeing more than some snow showers around sunset in the area tonight. This analysis is poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Just not very optimistic on the chances... Dew points are low and the radar isn't looking that good right now. I'm not seeing more than some snow showers around sunset in the area tonight. Do you remember what radar looked like the other night? Most managed an inch from that. Some that were lucky enough to be under heavier returns, received more. 1-3 today is certainly possible. At the very least, I think most equal the inch they received Wednesday night/Thursday pre dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I like the CWG map that Jason put out last night pretty much. I think 1-2 is pretty doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Just not very optimistic on the chances... Dew points are low and the radar isn't looking that good right now. I'm not seeing more than some snow showers around sunset in the area tonight. DPs down here are in the single digits and there's already been reports of light snow falling with the first little band that moved through here. Don't say it's over by just looking at the radar and DPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 This analysis is poor. I think my dewpoint was about 6 the other night when snow started. In Jan 2010, it was 16 degrees in Winch, with a dp of 2. The instant that echos appeared overhead, it started snowing. I agree with you, using the dewpoint and radar can lead you to incorrect conclusions sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Just not very optimistic on the chances... Dew points are low and the radar isn't looking that good right now. I'm not seeing more than some snow showers around sunset in the area tonight. Short memory eh? Do you not remember the other night when dews were pretty low too and snow started falling pretty soon after returns were shown? I don't think anybody was thinking more than a few inches for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Just not very optimistic on the chances... Dew points are low and the radar isn't looking that good right now. I'm not seeing more than some snow showers around sunset in the area tonight. Dont know what radar you are using. But this one looks much better than I thought it would. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 By the way, I'm loving my call right now actually. 1"-2" from the clipper looks pretty good, plus another 1"-2" on Friday isn't a reach either. There's no way the clipper snow won't stick around long enough for Friday. Good luck with your call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 The difference is that Wednesday nights storm didn't have to deal with as dry of an airmass as we have right now. This combined with the poor reflection on the radar right now and the downsloping effect of the mountains leads me to believe that the models are seeing virga and that the immediate DC metro area will see minimum effects from this system, and that a dusting is more likely than 1" or more. Maybe I'm a pessimist and my analysis is wrong, but I'm going out on a limb and saying that this isn't going to be what some here think it's going to be. Do you remember what radar looked like the other night? Most managed an inch from that. Some that were lucky enough to be under heavier returns, received more. 1-3 today is certainly possible. At the very least, I think most equal the inch they received Wednesday night/Thursday pre dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The difference is that Wednesday nights storm didn't have to deal with as dry of an airmass as we have right now. This combined with the poor reflection on the radar right now and the downsloping effect of the mountains leads me to believe that the models are seeing virga and that the immediate DC metro area will see minimum effects from this system, and that a dusting is more likely than 1" or more. Maybe I'm a pessimist and my analysis is wrong, but I'm going out on a limb and saying that this isn't going to be what some here think it's going to be. It's your storm. You can't bail now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The difference is that Wednesday nights storm didn't have to deal with as dry of an airmass as we have right now. This combined with the poor reflection on the radar right now and the downsloping effect of the mountains leads me to believe that the models are seeing virga and that the immediate DC metro area will see minimum effects from this system, and that a dusting is more likely than 1" or more. Maybe I'm a pessimist and my analysis is wrong, but I'm going out on a limb and saying that this isn't going to be what some here think it's going to be. Well, that's not exactly right either. The rh here is higher than it was Wed when it started snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'm using RadarScope on my phone. Dont know what radar you are using. But this one looks much better than I thought it would. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I would wait to gloat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It's 17 degrees here with a dp of 5 but the humidity is up to 60% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Dont know what radar you are using. But this one looks much better than I thought it would. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php DC split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Well, that's not exactly right either. The rh here is higher than it was Wed when it started snowing. Yea, pretty much. I don't know why such a focus on dews. Yea, when we're 35 degrees with 25 dews we have a lot of problems because of evap cooling and the simple fact that warmer airmasses can hold more water content. Cold airmasses can't hold nearly the amount of liquid. 50% rh and snow reaches the ground when you have 20 degree temps and 5 degree dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 latest Those maps seem pretty worthless to me. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 latest Yup, LWX just upped their grids a bit. 1-2" today, 1/2" this evening for Clarksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 LWX is on the nam train. GFS is gonna be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 hires precip. I'm going to litter this thread with weenie clips until someone tells me to stop. namhiresprecip.JPG we need that blue line to go about 30 miles south #snowgrowthbaby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'm not sure that today's event despite the cold will have as high a ratios as the last one. Dendrites have the highest ratios. Dendrites form with temps in the -13.5 to -16.5 degree range. Plates form at -10 to -13.5 and columns for at -8 to -10. Look at today's sounding for 21Z Note that most of the sounding is in the plate and or column temp range not the dendrite range. below is a graphic that can be used as a rough guide for ratios. We're lucky that this will be a deposition storm with no riming which will keep the ratios higher than 10 to 1 but they aren't likely to be 20-1 (at least in theory). I'll be interested in reports today of crystal types (plates, column or dendrites) that people see today while taking their jebwalks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'm going to the Wizards game tonight with my son to see my Timberwolves play...debating on driving or metro No Love or petrovich...we might actually win the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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