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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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Am I the only one that thought the 500's looked like they were trying to improve? The answer to my question could quite possibly be yes but I'm asking for educational purposes.

If its any consolation, the RAP at its max looks like its trying to dig a little further. Of course, I have no idea if it's useful at that range. I'm just looking for anything positive.

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If its any consolation, the RAP at its max looks like its trying to dig a little further. Of course, I have no idea if it's useful at that range. I'm just looking for anything positive.

 

lol, I noticed that too but thought it not worth mentioning.  It also has a little better warm advection but I think using it beyond its run is pretty risky. 

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Improve how? 

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Difax/fax500.gif - current compared to modeled:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/06/nam_namer_000_500_vort_ht.gif  

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_000_500_vort_ht.gif

 

Swap between the two for some slick forward momentum... :)

 

I do think the system is getting its act together a little more clearly than first thought - but I don't really know if it's going to make a great deal of difference.  At this point any real boost in performance is going to be determined by how much there is left in the rag to ring out once it fights to the coast.

 

Keep going past hr6.....I agree, it might be too little too late but it's trying.

 

BTW, should I feel special that I pulled a first post out of someone? 

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LWX gives me 2".........which will stick almost everywhere and affect the evening rush. Why no WWA?

I think after the 0z suite the decision will be made.

 

Precip probably won't really start affecting the area until Mid afternoon, and NWS has the leeway to shoot it off 12 hours before the onset. I think you'll probably see one posted early AM.  Aside from that, it just 'snowed' so, people are already in cautious mode.

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I think after the 0z suite the decision will be made.

 

Precip probably won't really start affecting the area until Mid afternoon, and NWS has the leeway to shoot it off 12 hours before the onset. I think you'll probably see one posted early AM.  Aside from that, it just 'snowed' so, people are already in cautious mode.

Gotcha, makes sense. I just thought the leeway is 24 hr.

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if you're downwind of a power plant 0

otherwise.. a lot.

 

The coal emissions helps to seed the clouds. I used to live in Stoney Beach. The down side is the non-factory "metallic paint job" that would appear periodically on my vehicles.

 

Well that and...cancer.

 

Even though I am a snow fanatic, I think I will give up a few tenths of an inch in exchange for the lack of cancer.

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The coal emissions helps to seed the clouds. I used to live in Stoney Beach. The down side is the non-factory "metallic paint job" that would appear periodically on my vehicles.

 

Well that and...cancer.

 

Even though I am a snow fanatic, I think I will give up a few tenths of an inch in exchange for the lack of cancer.

The so called clean "water vapor" that we all hear about ;)

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I would not be surprised at all to see your area and Blacksburg on southwest getting 3-5 inches. Maybe even as far northeast as Lynchburg.Furthermore, you have some elevation to work with. Good luck. I'm expecting about an inch tops here near m/d line.

You might do better than an inch. Although with limited moisture it will come down to ratios, but just because temps will be very cold and 850's at -12 or so does not gaurantee high ratios. If the higher ratios due materialize you could easily get to 2 or better. I don't know what part of northern carroll you're in but here in Manchester I'm expecting 2 or so, but I could easily be wrong. In fact 3 inches isn't totally out of the realm of possibility.

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The so called clean "water vapor" that we all hear about ;)

Please excuse the banter, but all this seeding and power plant chatter reminds me of Chemtrail Ken, who I think was a fixture on Eastern or Wright Weather. Ring a bell with any of the old timers out there?

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havent really looked at this much before for some reason.. will save for later. last four runs of SREF. not necessarily exactly same timing in storm tho same time on model. newest (top) to oldest.

post-1615-0-82510800-1359086089_thumb.gi

post-1615-0-71376700-1359086098_thumb.gi

post-1615-0-95978600-1359086103_thumb.gi

post-1615-0-10268600-1359086109_thumb.gi

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havent really looked at this much before for some reason.. will save for later. last four runs of SREF. not necessarily exactly same timing in storm tho same time on model. newest (top) to oldest.

attachicon.gifSREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f030.gi

attachicon.gifSREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f036.gi

attachicon.gifSREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f042.gi

attachicon.gifSREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f048.gi

 

So they alternate DC in the darker green, which means we'll be back in it again soon :)

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