WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Am I the only one that thought the 500's looked like they were trying to improve? The answer to my question could quite possibly be yes but I'm asking for educational purposes. If its any consolation, the RAP at its max looks like its trying to dig a little further. Of course, I have no idea if it's useful at that range. I'm just looking for anything positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/lakeeffect-pondeffect-power-planteffect-snow/4728627 if you're downwind of a power plant 0otherwise.. a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 If its any consolation, the RAP at its max looks like its trying to dig a little further. Of course, I have no idea if it's useful at that range. I'm just looking for anything positive. lol, I noticed that too but thought it not worth mentioning. It also has a little better warm advection but I think using it beyond its run is pretty risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Improve how? http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Difax/fax500.gif - current compared to modeled: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/06/nam_namer_000_500_vort_ht.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_000_500_vort_ht.gif Swap between the two for some slick forward momentum... I do think the system is getting its act together a little more clearly than first thought - but I don't really know if it's going to make a great deal of difference. At this point any real boost in performance is going to be determined by how much there is left in the rag to ring out once it fights to the coast. Keep going past hr6.....I agree, it might be too little too late but it's trying. BTW, should I feel special that I pulled a first post out of someone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 LWX gives me 2".........which will stick almost everywhere and affect the evening rush. Why no WWA? That would mean it wouldn't snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Keep going past hr6.....I agree, it might be too little too late but it's trying. I don't know if it's too late...but we're asking an awful lot of a non-moisture laden system, moving at 40+kts If the system were just a touch deeper, I think it would make a bigger difference (all things being equal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 LWX gives me 2".........which will stick almost everywhere and affect the evening rush. Why no WWA? I think after the 0z suite the decision will be made. Precip probably won't really start affecting the area until Mid afternoon, and NWS has the leeway to shoot it off 12 hours before the onset. I think you'll probably see one posted early AM. Aside from that, it just 'snowed' so, people are already in cautious mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 LWX gives me 2".........which will stick almost everywhere and affect the evening rush. Why no WWA? I'd imagine they will issue it tomorrow if it still looks like it will impact the evening rush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think after the 0z suite the decision will be made. Precip probably won't really start affecting the area until Mid afternoon, and NWS has the leeway to shoot it off 12 hours before the onset. I think you'll probably see one posted early AM. Aside from that, it just 'snowed' so, people are already in cautious mode. Gotcha, makes sense. I just thought the leeway is 24 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 if you're downwind of a power plant 0 otherwise.. a lot. The coal emissions helps to seed the clouds. I used to live in Stoney Beach. The down side is the non-factory "metallic paint job" that would appear periodically on my vehicles. Well that and...cancer. Even though I am a snow fanatic, I think I will give up a few tenths of an inch in exchange for the lack of cancer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The coal emissions helps to seed the clouds. I used to live in Stoney Beach. The down side is the non-factory "metallic paint job" that would appear periodically on my vehicles. Well that and...cancer. Even though I am a snow fanatic, I think I will give up a few tenths of an inch in exchange for the lack of cancer. The so called clean "water vapor" that we all hear about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I would not be surprised at all to see your area and Blacksburg on southwest getting 3-5 inches. Maybe even as far northeast as Lynchburg.Furthermore, you have some elevation to work with. Good luck. I'm expecting about an inch tops here near m/d line. You might do better than an inch. Although with limited moisture it will come down to ratios, but just because temps will be very cold and 850's at -12 or so does not gaurantee high ratios. If the higher ratios due materialize you could easily get to 2 or better. I don't know what part of northern carroll you're in but here in Manchester I'm expecting 2 or so, but I could easily be wrong. In fact 3 inches isn't totally out of the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think the NWS is handling this pretty well....1" for most, more towards PA, less south until you get into central VA and Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'm in Caroga, NY. It's 5. Projected low of -14. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'm in Caroga, NY. It's 5. Projected low of -14. Thankssounds awful. enjoy the frozen nose hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 gfs looks marginally different than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS looks better... kind of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 .06 DCA .07 BWI .05 IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The so called clean "water vapor" that we all hear about Please excuse the banter, but all this seeding and power plant chatter reminds me of Chemtrail Ken, who I think was a fixture on Eastern or Wright Weather. Ring a bell with any of the old timers out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS definitely looks more like the NAM for my area.. ROA. Not as much QPF but overall look is better and increased QPF. Rather than a dusting to an inch. May squeeze out a couple inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 HS......I live inbetween Littlestown and Taneytown I'm sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS definitely looks more like the NAM for my area.. ROA. Not as much QPF but overall look is better and increased QPF. Rather than a dusting to an inch. May squeeze out a couple inches here. Roanoke gets .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 HS......I live inbetween Littlestown and Taneytown. I guess you could be right...maybe go with ur middle ground (cap it at 2 " and call it even)...hope for a last min trend wetter. 1" - 2" look good countywide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 1" - 2" look good countywide. FOX 45 had Westminster pegged for 3.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 havent really looked at this much before for some reason.. will save for later. last four runs of SREF. not necessarily exactly same timing in storm tho same time on model. newest (top) to oldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 FOX 45 had Westminster pegged for 3.7" If you go by the 00z GFS that's going to be awfully hard as DMW get's .06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 HS......I live inbetween Littlestown and Taneytown. I guess you could be right...maybe go with ur middle ground (cap it at 2 " and call it even)...hope for a last min trend wetter. Sounds good. I will be very happy with 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 havent really looked at this much before for some reason.. will save for later. last four runs of SREF. not necessarily exactly same timing in storm tho same time on model. newest (top) to oldest. SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f030.gi SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f036.gi SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f042.gi SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f048.gi So they alternate DC in the darker green, which means we'll be back in it again soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'm sorry Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 well...it's better than nothing. looks like we may have to wait a little longer to break the 2" barrier, or maybe not...maybe it surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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