yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I am thinking 1-2 sounds like a good bet for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Winter Weather Advisories for NE NC and SE VA NCZ012-VAZ087>098-100-250430-/O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0003.130125T1800Z-130126T0600Z/NORTHAMPTON NC-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-NORTHAMPTON VA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARGARETTSVILLE...EMPORIA...WAKEFIELD...WILLIAMSBURG...POQUOSON...FRANKLIN...NEWPORT NEWS...HAMPTON...EASTVILLE318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1AM EST SATURDAY.* AREAS AFFECTED: SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN DELMARVA* HAZARDS: SNOW* ACCUMULATIONS: GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.* TEMPERATURES: REMAINING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.* TIMING: DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING.* IMPACTS: WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ALL AREAS. THE EVENING RUSH HOUR WILL BE ESPECIALLY HARD HIT AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This one's for East Coast NPZ. Sorry, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Although that 8-10 inches seems high, Davis, WV did pick up 5.2 inches on 0.26 inches of liquid equivalent with the clipper. I measured 6.6" at 9am at my house and it was still snowing. I bet the clipper total will end up being around 7". PIT called for 1-2". They called for 3-6" from the frontal passage earlier in the week and we got 0.7". I'll give them kudos if they are right on this one, but they have been struggling lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I measured 6.6" at 9am at my house and it was still snowing. I bet the clipper total will end up being around 7". PIT called for 1-2". They called for 3-6" from the frontal passage earlier in the week and we got 0.7". I'll give them kudos if they are right on this one, but they have been struggling lately. That area seems tough to forecast for, not mention impossible to find accurate radar. The 18z NAM has an area of 0.25-0.5 in the warned area, so it seems like another 5+ inches is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Just random, but RNK is always the last to update for winter events. Ugg..I mean, I know what they are going to forecast, but still.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah...SREF plumes look good. Mean of 0.15" for Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 if the qpf on the models was averaging 0.50 we would think all the models are essentially identical. i think at the end of the day, they are converging on a 1-2" event with maybe 2-3" in hotspots and <1" in bethesda (where i live of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 this event is going to bust so badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 this event is going to bust so badly I assume you mean bust in a bad way, but I think expectations are pretty much in check. We received an inch of fluff from an anemic clipper last night so a forecast of 1 inch from this thing doesn't seem too outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This one's for East Coast NPZ. Sorry, man. 1-25-13 forecast.JPG D'oh!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I assume you mean bust in a bad way, but I think expectations are pretty much in check. We received an inch of fluff from an anemic clipper last night so a forecast of 1 inch from this thing doesn't seem too outrageous. youre in a much better spot when there is a DC split...I could see you doing well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 youre in a much better spot when there is a DC split...I could see you doing well You guys keep calling it a dc split..but out this way is usually way worse with these things especially during summer storms coming from the West...enjoy your snow dc while the front edge and back edge meet in Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 this event is going to bust so badly it's a sketchy setup for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah...SREF plumes look good. Mean of 0.15" for Baltimore. DCA 0.13" when you remove the crazy one and the operational NAM 0.19" from the ARW members 0.07" from the NMM members 0.11" from the NMB members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I think baltimore and it's northern burbs will do okay, not sure about dc....especially dc proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 clipper beginning its descent...http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html should be cloudy tomorrow morning...and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 clipper beginning its descent...http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html should be cloudy tomorrow morning...and cold. Awesome image, never had that link before...thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 clipper beginning its descent...http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html should be cloudy tomorrow morning...and cold. I hope it stays clear long enough for the temps to drop as low as forecasted. I'd like to see another morning with lows in the upper single digits to low teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 youre in a much better spot when there is a DC split...I could see you doing well I'm glad CWG went with such a broad brush forecast. This is nasty forecast. Looks to me like the 18Z hi res nam also backed off and has a split. Phin and the northern guys will have better dynamics than us while the better warm advection stuff stays south. I felt more confident yesterday about last night's event than I feel for Friday's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm glad CWG went with such a broad brush forecast. This is nasty forecast. Looks to me like the 18Z hi res nam also backed off and has a split. Phin and the northern guys will have better dynamics than us while the better warm advection stuff stays south. I felt more confident yesterday about last night's event than I feel for Friday's This is a weird one wes. It's become a disconnected piece of crap. The early runs had it simple. A so-so low track just to our nw with a simple connected piece of waa precip out in front. Very run of the mill plain vanilla kind of thing. It's morphed into two separate areas of precip with a crappy weak low to the nw on a collision course and whomever is at the accident site is kinda SOL. I blame the damn spiffy clipper for jacking up the ull flow out in front. Stoopid clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Southern Vort stealing our moisture. Those of you who said the clipper would be the better storm are most likely going to be correct. Cant complain though everyone finally got their ground covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This is a weird one wes. It's become a disconnected piece of crap. The early runs had it simple. A so-so low track just to our nw with a simple connected piece of waa precip out in front. Very run of the mill plain vanilla kind of thing. It's morphed into two separate areas of precip with a crappy weak low to the nw on a collision course and whomever is at the accident site is kinda SOL. I blame the damn spiffy clipper for jacking up the ull flow out in front. Stoopid clipper. I think it did hurt as the stronger it got the more disorganized this system became and the harder it got to back the upper flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm glad CWG went with such a broad brush forecast. This is nasty forecast. Looks to me like the 18Z hi res nam also backed off and has a split. Phin and the northern guys will have better dynamics than us while the better warm advection stuff stays south. I felt more confident yesterday about last night's event than I feel for Friday's yeah...you nailed last night....tomorrow I have very low expectations...If I get an inch I'll be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 clipper beginning its descent...http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html should be cloudy tomorrow morning...and cold. Nice. Thanks. Bookmarking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS is predictably bad....i think dusting to inch is a good call for DC metro with the possibility it snows lightly for 18 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 how much of this is a split as opposed to downsloping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Here's some clips from the gfs I pulled on the 21st. And here's how it looks now. It could be any more stark how bad it's gotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nice. Thanks. Bookmarking it. someone else posted it another thread yesterday, but yea, it's pretty money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS is predictably bad....i think dusting to inch is a good call for DC metro with the possibility it snows lightly for 18 minutes im leaning toward the 18 minutes myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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