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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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Winter Weather Advisories for NE NC and SE VA

 

 

NCZ012-VAZ087>098-100-250430-/O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0003.130125T1800Z-130126T0600Z/NORTHAMPTON NC-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-NORTHAMPTON VA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARGARETTSVILLE...EMPORIA...WAKEFIELD...WILLIAMSBURG...POQUOSON...FRANKLIN...NEWPORT NEWS...HAMPTON...EASTVILLE318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1AM EST SATURDAY.* AREAS AFFECTED: SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AS WELL AS  SOUTHERN DELMARVA* HAZARDS: SNOW* ACCUMULATIONS: GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS  OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.* TEMPERATURES: REMAINING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.* TIMING: DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING FROM WEST TO  EAST DURING THE EVENING.* IMPACTS: WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THE SNOW WILL  ACCUMULATE ON ALL AREAS. THE EVENING RUSH HOUR WILL BE  ESPECIALLY HARD HIT AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO  OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL  DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT  HOURS.
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Although that 8-10 inches seems high, Davis, WV did pick up 5.2 inches on 0.26 inches of liquid equivalent with the clipper.  

I measured 6.6" at 9am at my house and it was still snowing.  I bet the clipper total will end up being around 7".

 

PIT called for 1-2". 

 

They called for 3-6" from the frontal passage earlier in the week and we got 0.7".  I'll give them kudos if they are right on this one, but they have been struggling lately.

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I measured 6.6" at 9am at my house and it was still snowing.  I bet the clipper total will end up being around 7".

 

PIT called for 1-2". 

 

They called for 3-6" from the frontal passage earlier in the week and we got 0.7".  I'll give them kudos if they are right on this one, but they have been struggling lately.

That area seems tough to forecast for, not mention impossible to find accurate radar.

 

The 18z NAM has an area of 0.25-0.5 in the warned area, so it seems like another 5+ inches is possible.

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I assume you mean bust in a bad way, but I think expectations are pretty much in check. We received an inch of fluff from an anemic clipper last night so a forecast of 1 inch from this thing doesn't seem too outrageous.

youre in a much better spot when there is a DC split...I could see you doing well

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youre in a much better spot when there is a DC split...I could see you doing well

You guys keep calling it a dc split..but out this way is usually way worse with these things especially during summer storms coming from the West...enjoy your snow dc while the front edge and back edge meet in Leesburg :(

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youre in a much better spot when there is a DC split...I could see you doing well

 

I'm glad CWG went with such a broad brush forecast.  This is nasty forecast.  Looks to me like the 18Z hi res nam also backed off and has a split.  Phin and the northern guys will have better dynamics than us while the better warm advection stuff stays south. I felt more confident yesterday about last night's event than I feel for Friday's

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I'm glad CWG went with such a broad brush forecast.  This is nasty forecast.  Looks to me like the 18Z hi res nam also backed off and has a split.  Phin and the northern guys will have better dynamics than us while the better warm advection stuff stays south. I felt more confident yesterday about last night's event than I feel for Friday's

 

This is a weird one wes. It's become a disconnected piece of crap. The early runs had it simple. A so-so low track just to our nw with a simple connected piece of waa precip out in front. Very run of the mill plain vanilla kind of thing. It's morphed into two separate areas of precip with a crappy weak low to the nw on a collision course and whomever is at the accident site is kinda SOL. 

 

I blame the damn spiffy clipper for jacking up the ull flow out in front. Stoopid clipper. 

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This is a weird one wes. It's become a disconnected piece of crap. The early runs had it simple. A so-so low track just to our nw with a simple connected piece of waa precip out in front. Very run of the mill plain vanilla kind of thing. It's morphed into two separate areas of precip with a crappy weak low to the nw on a collision course and whomever is at the accident site is kinda SOL. 

 

I blame the damn spiffy clipper for jacking up the ull flow out in front. Stoopid clipper. 

 

I think it did hurt as the stronger it got the more disorganized this system became and the harder it got to back the upper flow. 

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I'm glad CWG went with such a broad brush forecast.  This is nasty forecast.  Looks to me like the 18Z hi res nam also backed off and has a split.  Phin and the northern guys will have better dynamics than us while the better warm advection stuff stays south. I felt more confident yesterday about last night's event than I feel for Friday's

 

yeah...you nailed last night....tomorrow I have very low expectations...If I get an inch I'll be happy

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