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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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I usually look at the SREF plumes, but those are delayed about ~1hr after the other SREF graphics come out.  Comparing on Allen's site, I can't see too much difference in the QPF visually.  Our probability of .25" in 6 hours has gone from 0 up to 3% with the 15z!!

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I got the SREF plumes up... very.. um.. interesting. Not sure if I should post it due to the possibility of a weenie hopes outbreak.

You should post it in the name of science. The inability of people to control themselves is hardly a reason for withholding data.

 

If one cannot temper their emotions when examining data/results, they shouldn't be working in/observing a scientific field.

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The 30 hour panel looks like a case of the southern energy stealing the show. 

What show?  Oh no instead of 1-2" we get a coating to 1".  The rug was pulled out from this one days ago and there has really been no improvement since, just slight differences from run to run that ammount to noise.  We are going to get some light snow for a time and depending on luck and minor atmospheric differences it could end up being a dusting or perhap 1-2".  No big deal either way and not a major difference. 

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At least we have the euro to hug for now.

With precip amounts so small I guess shifts get magnified. It's not like we went form 1+ to 0.1 qpf. Who's to say, at game time it might surprise.

I think back to when this was an Ohio Valley low and everyone was worried about temps. Give me that anytime. They bring the big guns QPF wise. So what if it changes over for a while. You get a few inches of cement on the ground that sticks around this time of year.

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What show?  Oh no instead of 1-2" we get a coating to 1".  The rug was pulled out from this one days ago and there has really been no improvement since, just slight differences from run to run that ammount to noise.  We are going to get some light snow for a time and depending on luck and minor atmospheric differences it could end up being a dusting or perhap 1-2".  No big deal either way and not a major difference. 

 

eh, a 200% difference in outcomes is MASSIVE

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-250430-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0001.130125T1700Z-130127T0000Z/

GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...LIGONIER...

DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...NORMALVILLE...

FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...

PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS

318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST

SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM

EST SATURDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE

SNOW WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH SNOW CONTINUING

OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8-10 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE RIDGES.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL

MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT AT ALL...USE

EXTREME CAUTION. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS

PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

$$

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What show?  Oh no instead of 1-2" we get a coating to 1".  The rug was pulled out from this one days ago and there has really been no improvement since, just slight differences from run to run that ammount to noise.  We are going to get some light snow for a time and depending on luck and minor atmospheric differences it could end up being a dusting or perhap 1-2".  No big deal either way and not a major difference. 

 

lol

 

Good point.

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-250430-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0001.130125T1700Z-130127T0000Z/GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PMEST SATURDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE  SNOW WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH SNOW CONTINUING  OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...8-10 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE RIDGES.* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL WILLMAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT AT ALL...USEEXTREME CAUTION.  REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWSPITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.&&$

 

Man. That hurts.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-250430-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0001.130125T1700Z-130127T0000Z/GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PMEST SATURDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE  SNOW WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH SNOW CONTINUING  OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...8-10 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE RIDGES.* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL WILLMAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT AT ALL...USEEXTREME CAUTION.  REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWSPITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.&&$

8-10" seems high.  NWS PIT seems to be getting worse and worse.

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dc snow hole not funny anymore

Its real, we are in an awful spot in many ways but sometimes a great spot.  Our snow climo runs boom or bust.  We are able to get historic snowstorms that many area's just do not get at the same frequency. At the same time, we are in a terrible location to be able to nickel and dime our way to a decent snowfall year when things are not coming together for big events.  We are often stuck between the 2 jets when they do not phase.  Furthermore, when the flow is out of the west or especially the southwest we are located downwind of the 4000 ft mountains in WV and central VA.  So our forcing is usually weaker being between jets, and we are downsloping...and thus the snowhole.  We do not do well from these types of systems.  We need a real low that is deepening and passes near the VA capes.  Until then my interest level is low. 

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Thanks for the morale booster.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-250430-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0001.130125T1700Z-130127T0000Z/

GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...LIGONIER...

DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...NORMALVILLE...

FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...

PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS

318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST

SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM

EST SATURDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE

SNOW WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH SNOW CONTINUING

OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8-10 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE RIDGES.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL

MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT AT ALL...USE

EXTREME CAUTION. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS

PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

$$

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You should post it in the name of science. The inability of people to control themselves is hardly a reason for withholding data.

 

If one cannot temper their emotions when examining data/results, they shouldn't be working in/observing a scientific field.

 

You asked for it..

post-741-0-62326500-1359059359_thumb.jpg

ps. In case your wondering, the one that goes off the chart pegs at 19.8" with rates of 5" an hour.. Not possible.

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