WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I usually look at the SREF plumes, but those are delayed about ~1hr after the other SREF graphics come out. Comparing on Allen's site, I can't see too much difference in the QPF visually. Our probability of .25" in 6 hours has gone from 0 up to 3% with the 15z!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 SREFS members....a couple are awful, most are better, 1 is awesome. I'm going to ride the best one. sounds like you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 eh, it's gonna suck some life out of this place. Yeah, looks to me that it is going to be drier with more of a split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 At least we have the euro to hug for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The 30 hour panel looks like a case of the southern energy stealing the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I guess 0.05 or so on the 18z NAM for QPF... so now its SREF/EURO combo we are riding I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 At least we have the euro to hug for now. Still time. If we eek out 1.5 it will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I got the SREF plumes up... very.. um.. interesting. Not sure if I should post it due to the possibility of a weenie hopes outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I got the SREF plumes up... very.. um.. interesting. Not sure if I should post it due to the possibility of a weenie hopes outbreak. You should post it in the name of science. The inability of people to control themselves is hardly a reason for withholding data. If one cannot temper their emotions when examining data/results, they shouldn't be working in/observing a scientific field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Since we're only quibbling over .05+/- of precip I guess the silver lining is nowcasting can surprise us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The 30 hour panel looks like a case of the southern energy stealing the show. What show? Oh no instead of 1-2" we get a coating to 1". The rug was pulled out from this one days ago and there has really been no improvement since, just slight differences from run to run that ammount to noise. We are going to get some light snow for a time and depending on luck and minor atmospheric differences it could end up being a dusting or perhap 1-2". No big deal either way and not a major difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 dc snow hole not funny anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 At least we have the euro to hug for now. With precip amounts so small I guess shifts get magnified. It's not like we went form 1+ to 0.1 qpf. Who's to say, at game time it might surprise. I think back to when this was an Ohio Valley low and everyone was worried about temps. Give me that anytime. They bring the big guns QPF wise. So what if it changes over for a while. You get a few inches of cement on the ground that sticks around this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What show? Oh no instead of 1-2" we get a coating to 1". The rug was pulled out from this one days ago and there has really been no improvement since, just slight differences from run to run that ammount to noise. We are going to get some light snow for a time and depending on luck and minor atmospheric differences it could end up being a dusting or perhap 1-2". No big deal either way and not a major difference. eh, a 200% difference in outcomes is MASSIVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-250430- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0001.130125T1700Z-130127T0000Z/ GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...LIGONIER... DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...NORMALVILLE... FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA... PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...8-10 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE RIDGES. * MAIN IMPACT...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT AT ALL...USE EXTREME CAUTION. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I got the SREF plumes up... very.. um.. interesting. Not sure if I should post it due to the possibility of a weenie hopes outbreak. Post em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I wish the gfs would hurry up. We need to get back to .1 so the celebrations can start again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What show? Oh no instead of 1-2" we get a coating to 1". The rug was pulled out from this one days ago and there has really been no improvement since, just slight differences from run to run that ammount to noise. We are going to get some light snow for a time and depending on luck and minor atmospheric differences it could end up being a dusting or perhap 1-2". No big deal either way and not a major difference. lol Good point. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-250430-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0001.130125T1700Z-130127T0000Z/GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PMEST SATURDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...8-10 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE RIDGES.* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL WILLMAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT AT ALL...USEEXTREME CAUTION. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWSPITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.&&$ Man. That hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 "dynamically this system is a bit less dynamic" afds are always good for lols. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-250430-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0001.130125T1700Z-130127T0000Z/GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PMEST SATURDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...8-10 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE RIDGES.* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL WILLMAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT AT ALL...USEEXTREME CAUTION. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWSPITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.&&$ 8-10" seems high. NWS PIT seems to be getting worse and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 8-10" seems high. NWS PIT seems to be getting worse and worse. I think that is including lake effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 pbz is looking to break all time ratio records. 8-10" with less than .2 falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 dc snow hole not funny anymore Its real, we are in an awful spot in many ways but sometimes a great spot. Our snow climo runs boom or bust. We are able to get historic snowstorms that many area's just do not get at the same frequency. At the same time, we are in a terrible location to be able to nickel and dime our way to a decent snowfall year when things are not coming together for big events. We are often stuck between the 2 jets when they do not phase. Furthermore, when the flow is out of the west or especially the southwest we are located downwind of the 4000 ft mountains in WV and central VA. So our forcing is usually weaker being between jets, and we are downsloping...and thus the snowhole. We do not do well from these types of systems. We need a real low that is deepening and passes near the VA capes. Until then my interest level is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thanks for the morale booster. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-250430- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0001.130125T1700Z-130127T0000Z/ GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...LIGONIER... DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...NORMALVILLE... FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA... PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...8-10 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE RIDGES. * MAIN IMPACT...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT AT ALL...USE EXTREME CAUTION. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You should post it in the name of science. The inability of people to control themselves is hardly a reason for withholding data. If one cannot temper their emotions when examining data/results, they shouldn't be working in/observing a scientific field. You asked for it.. ps. In case your wondering, the one that goes off the chart pegs at 19.8" with rates of 5" an hour.. Not possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 eh, a 200% difference in outcomes is MASSIVE not when we are talking about such minor ammounts. The difference between 1/8" and 1/2" for instance is insignificant in the grand scheme. This is going to be a neusance level event no matter how you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You asked for it.. Toss the 3 members that spent their lunch hour smoking crack and we might squeeze an inch. Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So mean of about 2.5" for DCA, with max being 5" and min being about 0.5"? I'd toss the highest 3 as well, just because of how much they are off, so the mean would be about 1-1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Toss the 3 members that spent their lunch hour smoking crack and we might squeeze an inch. Sounds about right. Well at least you don't have your weenie goggles on today. Good analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Although that 8-10 inches seems high, Davis, WV did pick up 5.2 inches on 0.26 inches of liquid equivalent with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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