ravensrule Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ravensrule asked that, not me. Makes sense that people would confuse us since i am such a good forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The 500h doesn't look that great though it does have beeter warm advection than the last run which probably is what puts us back in the .10" plus range. I don't see this becoming a .25 inch storm. The flow just is too westerly to really get the gulf involved at this latitude (famous last words). yeah 500 isnt that good anywhere really.. the gfs was pretty lame imo. i think it is probably wise to hedge given the potential ratios tho. think cwg's thoughts are about perfect for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 fwiw- 12z hires nam sim shows snow falling for about 6+/- hours tomorrow. And all of us will be awake this time. Obs thread gon b rockin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Whats the timing on this 5-7 pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 yeah 500 isnt that good anywhere really.. the gfs was pretty lame imo. i think it is probably wise to hedge given the potential ratios tho. think cwg's thoughts are about perfect for now. The vort isn't that bad it's that the flow never really backs ahead of us. This looks like a .12-15 event in terms of QPF. I'm not sure I trust the GFS with the euro now a little wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 looks like nam/euro vs gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Bob Chill's forecast of 1-3/2-4 from a few days ago sounds like an excellent forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 There is a wtf event sunday night/monday morning especially west of DC. .10 of mix with temps below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If we can all get comparably crazy high ratios like last night for tomorrow, many of us could get 2" if the Euro/NAM/SREF combo is correct. DCA might get 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 There is a wtf event sunday night/monday morning especially west of DC. .10 of mix with temps below freezing Ji, Thanks. I was so busy looking at the warming next week that I looked over Sunday into MOnday morning. I'm gonna edit my outlook to reflect the possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The vort isn't that bad it's that the flow never really backs ahead of us. This looks like a .12-15 event in terms of QPF. I'm not sure I trust the GFS with the euro now a little wetter. Looks like the in-house HPC ensemble bias corrected QPF gave us a good starting point yesterday. I used it to initialize the snowfall amounts on the WWD...which the forecast was very similar to today's ensemble of model QPF. I like it! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 There is a wtf event sunday night/monday morning especially west of DC. .10 of mix with temps below freezing Just don't start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If we can all get comparably crazy high ratios like last night for tomorrow, many of us could get 2" if the Euro/NAM/SREF combo is correct. DCA might get 0.5". \ I worry a little about the ratios as the sounding at 21Z from the NAM looks OK and would support dendrites, however by 00Z it would not and would probably yield plates. The latter don't give you the nice ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 \ I worry a little about the ratios as the sounding at 21Z from the NAM looks OK and would support dendrites, however by 00Z it would not and would probably yield plates. The latter don't give you the nice ratios. Wes, is there a website or study that shows that? I am intrigued by your statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Wes, is there a website or study that shows that? I am intrigued by your statement Marty Baxter wrote an article on it. Here's a PDF about his work. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/PUBLICATIONS/Baxter2005.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Marty Baxter wrote an article on it. Here's a PDF about his work. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/PUBLICATIONS/Baxter2005.pdf Same study, a bit more interactive: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/slrmap.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thanks Wes and wxmeddler. Appreciate the links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Anybody think the SREFS wetter? I use the NCEP site, graphics are tough, but it looks wetter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Anybody think the SREFS wetter? I use the NCEP site, graphics are tough, but it looks wetter to me. Look like the EURO re QPF in my opinion... I would say 0.15 or so... WxUSAF would probably know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 nam is a bit slower with the vort and better ridging behind. I guess we'll see if that translates into anything meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 By Allen's site, they look better for our area. Don't get exact totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 nam is a bit slower with the vort and better ridging behind. I guess we'll see if that translates into anything meaningful. I thought 18hrs stunk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I thought 18hrs stunk lol Minute diff. Prob makes no diff tho. Just doing the thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 nam is a bit slower with the vort and better ridging behind. I guess we'll see if that translates into anything meaningful. Looks like the vort is a little west over central MN don't know if that matters much anyhow really pulling for you guys that you'll get something up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nvm lol 24 hr loop it ends up in nw Wisconsin. Good precip breaking out though over east KY TN and headed into VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 By Allen's site, they look better for our area. Don't get exact totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 SREFS members....a couple are awful, most are better, 1 is awesome. I'm going to ride the best one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 eh, it's gonna suck some life out of this place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 eh, it's gonna suck some life out of this place. I said split we're in the hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.