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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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The 500h doesn't look that great though it does have beeter warm advection than the last run which probably is what puts us back in the .10" plus range.  I don't see this becoming a .25 inch storm.  The flow just is too westerly to really get the gulf involved at this latitude (famous last words). 

yeah 500 isnt that good anywhere really.. the gfs was pretty lame imo. i think it is probably wise to hedge given the potential ratios tho. think cwg's thoughts are about perfect for now.

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yeah 500 isnt that good anywhere really.. the gfs was pretty lame imo. i think it is probably wise to hedge given the potential ratios tho. think cwg's thoughts are about perfect for now.

 

The vort isn't that bad it's that the flow never really backs ahead of us.  This looks like a .12-15 event in terms of QPF. I'm not sure I trust the GFS with the euro now a little wetter. 

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The vort isn't that bad it's that the flow never really backs ahead of us. This looks like a .12-15 event in terms of QPF. I'm not sure I trust the GFS with the euro now a little wetter.

Looks like the in-house HPC ensemble bias corrected QPF gave us a good starting point yesterday. I used it to initialize the snowfall amounts on the WWD...which the forecast was very similar to today's ensemble of model QPF. I like it! :-)

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If we can all get comparably crazy high ratios like last night for tomorrow, many of us could get 2" if the Euro/NAM/SREF combo is correct.  DCA might get 0.5". 

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I worry a little about the ratios as the sounding at 21Z from the NAM looks OK and would support dendrites, however  by 00Z it would not and would probably yield plates.  The latter don't give you the nice ratios. 

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I worry a little about the ratios as the sounding at 21Z from the NAM looks OK and would support dendrites, however  by 00Z it would not and would probably yield plates.  The latter don't give you the nice ratios. 

 

Wes, is there a website or study that shows that?  I am intrigued by your statement

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nam is a bit slower with the vort and better ridging behind. I guess we'll see if that translates into anything meaningful.

Looks like the vort is a little west over central MN don't know if that matters much anyhow really pulling for you guys that you'll get something up that way.

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