easternsnowman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 good guess; here's March precip forecast (and, of course, temps are forecast to be way above normal and HM in another thread pretty much confirmed that to be his forecast as well) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd2.gif I believed hm said he was not sure,but could turn out that way. March seems to have warmed up alot over the last 15 years where it's only wintery in northern new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NMM seems to be in the NAM range. ARW around 0.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 These were on Wright-Weather's homepage. NMM: ARW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Didn't the NAM handle last night's clipper better than the GFS? I thought last night the GFS showed less than what we actually got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Didn't the NAM handle last night's clipper better than the GFS? I thought last night the GFS showed less than what we actually got. When you're talking about the difference between .04, .07, .10, etc, it really doesn't make much of a difference I wouldn't think. It's all about who get's lucky (or unlucky). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 When you're talking about the difference between .04, .07, .10, etc, it really doesn't make much of a difference I wouldn't think. It's all about who get's lucky (or unlucky). The difference between .04 and .10 last night meant an inch difference so that is alot if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm waiting for "next" after the euro runs. This "storm" is a tattered mess. Unless a miracle happens and things amp up all of a sudden, it's going to look good on radar and look like total crap in our yards. Edit: I'm still sticking to widespread 2-3" with lollies to .5". No sense in waffling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm waiting for "next" after the euro runs. This "storm" is a tattered mess. Unless a miracle happens and things amp up all of a sudden, it's going to look good on radar and look like total crap in our yards. a little better BWI has .10" thru Sat 0Z with, I think, a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 precip is up on the euro over last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 precip is up on the euro over last night How much for DCA? and my house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 a little better BWI has .10" thru Sat 0Z with, I think, a little more Do you have the 850 temps?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Dayum! My weeniecast is lookin a little better! lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 .11" for BWI (big deal, right?) but as Ian said, a little better than last night DCA and IAD are .10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 How much for DCA? and my house? everyone is in the .1"+ area around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 How much for DCA? and my house? IMBY weenie . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 everyone is in the .1"+ area around here. curious. Any movement N with the .25 line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Do you have the 850 temps?. all 3 airports between -11 and -12C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 it's looking like a 2-3" event with these temps/ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 curious. Any movement N with the .25 line? there's not really a .25" line anywhere around here. no real change to those areas (way sw and offshore) tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 everyone is in the .1"+ area around here. Does my heart good. Maybe I can get another 1.5" That would be awesome. I'd also like that for making the original favored CWG scenario from a couple of days ago look decent. I think I like 1-2 inches for the storm. The euro is in line with the median of the sref guidance and the close to what the high res nam have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 it's looking like a 2-3" event with these temps/ratios Except DCA. They will get only .05 which will still manage to equal .01 of measured snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Do you have the 850 temps?. BWI- -4 and -12.6 DCA- -4 and -11.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 all 3 airports between -11 and -12C Thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 BWI- -4 and -12.6 DCA- -4 and -11.2 Ravensrule asked that, not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Does my heart good. Maybe I can get another 1.5" That would be awesome. I'd also like that for making the original favored CWG scenario from a couple of days ago look decent. I think I like 1-2 inches for the storm. The euro is in line with the median of the sref guidance and the close to what the high res nam have. yeah, sounds good. i'd take another 1" and call it a solid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ravensrule asked that, not me. Weird..... I just hit quote, not sure why it showed up as you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I thought last night that if we are to see one of those miracle improvements it would start at 18z, about 24 hours before the start. I wonder what the top end of something like this is. In the best of circumstances, how high could it go? I'm reading of Euro improvement over last night. By how much has it improved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I thought last night that if we are to see one of those miracle improvements it would start at 18z, about 24 hours before the start. I wonder what the top end of something like this is. In the best of circumstances, how high could it go? I'm reading of Euro improvement over last night. By how much has it improved? mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get. Yea, breaking the .2" barrier is gonna be way tough. The ONLY thing I can see is getting lucky with a heavy burst at onset. waa precip can do that from time to time. Temp profiles would probably be a pretty efficient sponge wringer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get. The 500h doesn't look that great though it does have beeter warm advection than the last run which probably is what puts us back in the .10" plus range. I don't see this becoming a .25 inch storm. The flow just is too westerly to really get the gulf involved at this latitude (famous last words). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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