Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

Recommended Posts

good guess; here's March precip forecast (and, of course, temps are forecast to be way above normal and HM in another thread pretty much confirmed that to be his forecast as well)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd2.gif

I believed hm said he was not sure,but could turn out that way. March seems to have warmed up alot over the last 15 years where it's only wintery in northern new england

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

When you're talking about the difference between .04, .07, .10, etc, it really doesn't make much of a difference I wouldn't think.  It's all about who get's lucky (or unlucky).

The difference between .04 and .10 last night meant  an inch difference so that is alot if you ask me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm waiting for "next" after the euro runs. This "storm" is a tattered mess. Unless a miracle happens and things amp up all of a sudden, it's going to look good on radar and look like total crap in our yards. 

 

Edit: I'm still sticking to widespread 2-3" with lollies to .5". No sense in waffling now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

everyone is in the .1"+ area around here.

 

Does my heart good.  Maybe I can get another 1.5"  That would be awesome.  I'd also like that for making the original favored CWG scenario from a couple of days ago look decent.  I think I like 1-2 inches for the storm.  The euro is in line with the median of the sref guidance and the close to what the high res nam have. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does my heart good.  Maybe I can get another 1.5"  That would be awesome.  I'd also like that for making the original favored CWG scenario from a couple of days ago look decent.  I think I like 1-2 inches for the storm.  The euro is in line with the median of the sref guidance and the close to what the high res nam have. 

yeah, sounds good. i'd take another 1" and call it a solid week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought last night that if we are to see one of those miracle improvements it would start at 18z, about 24 hours before the start. I wonder what the top end of something like this is. In the best of circumstances, how high could it go?

I'm reading of Euro improvement over last night. By how much has it improved?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought last night that if we are to see one of those miracle improvements it would start at 18z, about 24 hours before the start. I wonder what the top end of something like this is. In the best of circumstances, how high could it go?

I'm reading of Euro improvement over last night. By how much has it improved?

mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get.

 

Yea, breaking the .2" barrier is gonna be way tough. The ONLY thing I can see is getting lucky with a heavy burst at onset. waa precip can do that from time to time. Temp profiles would probably be a pretty efficient sponge wringer. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get.

 

The 500h doesn't look that great though it does have beeter warm advection than the last run which probably is what puts us back in the .10" plus range.  I don't see this becoming a .25 inch storm.  The flow just is too westerly to really get the gulf involved at this latitude (famous last words). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...