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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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good guess; here's March precip forecast (and, of course, temps are forecast to be way above normal and HM in another thread pretty much confirmed that to be his forecast as well)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd2.gif

I believed hm said he was not sure,but could turn out that way. March seems to have warmed up alot over the last 15 years where it's only wintery in northern new england

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When you're talking about the difference between .04, .07, .10, etc, it really doesn't make much of a difference I wouldn't think.  It's all about who get's lucky (or unlucky).

The difference between .04 and .10 last night meant  an inch difference so that is alot if you ask me.

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I'm waiting for "next" after the euro runs. This "storm" is a tattered mess. Unless a miracle happens and things amp up all of a sudden, it's going to look good on radar and look like total crap in our yards. 

 

Edit: I'm still sticking to widespread 2-3" with lollies to .5". No sense in waffling now. 

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I'm waiting for "next" after the euro runs. This "storm" is a tattered mess. Unless a miracle happens and things amp up all of a sudden, it's going to look good on radar and look like total crap in our yards. 

a little better

BWI has .10" thru Sat 0Z with, I think, a little more

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everyone is in the .1"+ area around here.

 

Does my heart good.  Maybe I can get another 1.5"  That would be awesome.  I'd also like that for making the original favored CWG scenario from a couple of days ago look decent.  I think I like 1-2 inches for the storm.  The euro is in line with the median of the sref guidance and the close to what the high res nam have. 

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Does my heart good.  Maybe I can get another 1.5"  That would be awesome.  I'd also like that for making the original favored CWG scenario from a couple of days ago look decent.  I think I like 1-2 inches for the storm.  The euro is in line with the median of the sref guidance and the close to what the high res nam have. 

yeah, sounds good. i'd take another 1" and call it a solid week.

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I thought last night that if we are to see one of those miracle improvements it would start at 18z, about 24 hours before the start. I wonder what the top end of something like this is. In the best of circumstances, how high could it go?

I'm reading of Euro improvement over last night. By how much has it improved?

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I thought last night that if we are to see one of those miracle improvements it would start at 18z, about 24 hours before the start. I wonder what the top end of something like this is. In the best of circumstances, how high could it go?

I'm reading of Euro improvement over last night. By how much has it improved?

mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get.

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mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get.

 

Yea, breaking the .2" barrier is gonna be way tough. The ONLY thing I can see is getting lucky with a heavy burst at onset. waa precip can do that from time to time. Temp profiles would probably be a pretty efficient sponge wringer. 

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mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get.

 

The 500h doesn't look that great though it does have beeter warm advection than the last run which probably is what puts us back in the .10" plus range.  I don't see this becoming a .25 inch storm.  The flow just is too westerly to really get the gulf involved at this latitude (famous last words). 

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