Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I wish the gfs would hurry up. We need to get back to .1 so the celebrations can start again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What show? Oh no instead of 1-2" we get a coating to 1". The rug was pulled out from this one days ago and there has really been no improvement since, just slight differences from run to run that ammount to noise. We are going to get some light snow for a time and depending on luck and minor atmospheric differences it could end up being a dusting or perhap 1-2". No big deal either way and not a major difference. lol Good point. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-250430-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0001.130125T1700Z-130127T0000Z/GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PMEST SATURDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...8-10 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE RIDGES.* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL WILLMAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT AT ALL...USEEXTREME CAUTION. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWSPITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.&&$ Man. That hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 "dynamically this system is a bit less dynamic" afds are always good for lols. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-250430-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0001.130125T1700Z-130127T0000Z/GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PMEST SATURDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...8-10 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE RIDGES.* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL WILLMAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT AT ALL...USEEXTREME CAUTION. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWSPITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.&&$ 8-10" seems high. NWS PIT seems to be getting worse and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 8-10" seems high. NWS PIT seems to be getting worse and worse. I think that is including lake effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 pbz is looking to break all time ratio records. 8-10" with less than .2 falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 dc snow hole not funny anymore Its real, we are in an awful spot in many ways but sometimes a great spot. Our snow climo runs boom or bust. We are able to get historic snowstorms that many area's just do not get at the same frequency. At the same time, we are in a terrible location to be able to nickel and dime our way to a decent snowfall year when things are not coming together for big events. We are often stuck between the 2 jets when they do not phase. Furthermore, when the flow is out of the west or especially the southwest we are located downwind of the 4000 ft mountains in WV and central VA. So our forcing is usually weaker being between jets, and we are downsloping...and thus the snowhole. We do not do well from these types of systems. We need a real low that is deepening and passes near the VA capes. Until then my interest level is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thanks for the morale booster. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-250430- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0001.130125T1700Z-130127T0000Z/ GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...LIGONIER... DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...NORMALVILLE... FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA... PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...8-10 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE RIDGES. * MAIN IMPACT...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT AT ALL...USE EXTREME CAUTION. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You should post it in the name of science. The inability of people to control themselves is hardly a reason for withholding data. If one cannot temper their emotions when examining data/results, they shouldn't be working in/observing a scientific field. You asked for it.. ps. In case your wondering, the one that goes off the chart pegs at 19.8" with rates of 5" an hour.. Not possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 eh, a 200% difference in outcomes is MASSIVE not when we are talking about such minor ammounts. The difference between 1/8" and 1/2" for instance is insignificant in the grand scheme. This is going to be a neusance level event no matter how you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You asked for it.. Toss the 3 members that spent their lunch hour smoking crack and we might squeeze an inch. Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So mean of about 2.5" for DCA, with max being 5" and min being about 0.5"? I'd toss the highest 3 as well, just because of how much they are off, so the mean would be about 1-1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Toss the 3 members that spent their lunch hour smoking crack and we might squeeze an inch. Sounds about right. Well at least you don't have your weenie goggles on today. Good analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Although that 8-10 inches seems high, Davis, WV did pick up 5.2 inches on 0.26 inches of liquid equivalent with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I am thinking 1-2 sounds like a good bet for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Winter Weather Advisories for NE NC and SE VA NCZ012-VAZ087>098-100-250430-/O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0003.130125T1800Z-130126T0600Z/NORTHAMPTON NC-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-NORTHAMPTON VA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARGARETTSVILLE...EMPORIA...WAKEFIELD...WILLIAMSBURG...POQUOSON...FRANKLIN...NEWPORT NEWS...HAMPTON...EASTVILLE318 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1AM EST SATURDAY.* AREAS AFFECTED: SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN DELMARVA* HAZARDS: SNOW* ACCUMULATIONS: GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.* TEMPERATURES: REMAINING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.* TIMING: DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING.* IMPACTS: WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ALL AREAS. THE EVENING RUSH HOUR WILL BE ESPECIALLY HARD HIT AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This one's for East Coast NPZ. Sorry, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Although that 8-10 inches seems high, Davis, WV did pick up 5.2 inches on 0.26 inches of liquid equivalent with the clipper. I measured 6.6" at 9am at my house and it was still snowing. I bet the clipper total will end up being around 7". PIT called for 1-2". They called for 3-6" from the frontal passage earlier in the week and we got 0.7". I'll give them kudos if they are right on this one, but they have been struggling lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I measured 6.6" at 9am at my house and it was still snowing. I bet the clipper total will end up being around 7". PIT called for 1-2". They called for 3-6" from the frontal passage earlier in the week and we got 0.7". I'll give them kudos if they are right on this one, but they have been struggling lately. That area seems tough to forecast for, not mention impossible to find accurate radar. The 18z NAM has an area of 0.25-0.5 in the warned area, so it seems like another 5+ inches is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Just random, but RNK is always the last to update for winter events. Ugg..I mean, I know what they are going to forecast, but still.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah...SREF plumes look good. Mean of 0.15" for Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 if the qpf on the models was averaging 0.50 we would think all the models are essentially identical. i think at the end of the day, they are converging on a 1-2" event with maybe 2-3" in hotspots and <1" in bethesda (where i live of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 this event is going to bust so badly I assume you mean bust in a bad way, but I think expectations are pretty much in check. We received an inch of fluff from an anemic clipper last night so a forecast of 1 inch from this thing doesn't seem too outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This one's for East Coast NPZ. Sorry, man. 1-25-13 forecast.JPG D'oh!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 youre in a much better spot when there is a DC split...I could see you doing well You guys keep calling it a dc split..but out this way is usually way worse with these things especially during summer storms coming from the West...enjoy your snow dc while the front edge and back edge meet in Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 this event is going to bust so badly it's a sketchy setup for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yeah...SREF plumes look good. Mean of 0.15" for Baltimore. DCA 0.13" when you remove the crazy one and the operational NAM 0.19" from the ARW members 0.07" from the NMM members 0.11" from the NMB members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I think baltimore and it's northern burbs will do okay, not sure about dc....especially dc proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 clipper beginning its descent...http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html should be cloudy tomorrow morning...and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 clipper beginning its descent...http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html should be cloudy tomorrow morning...and cold. Awesome image, never had that link before...thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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