SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Sim radar at 30 looks ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 at 27 hrs, precip shield ain't so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yea. Look at 700 too. Nam likes that southern shield. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 definitely weaker than 0 z and 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12Z NAM looks decent at 36. Snowing throughout region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 ~5 hrs of precip at DCA. Maybe 0.15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 i think at this point, we can probably count on a swath of precip (famous last words), but the question is how much of it makes it over the mountains/reaches the ground/etc, as well as how quickly it's moving. if i was getting paid to make a forecast, i'd probably go 1-2" right now areawide while noting the bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yea, it's a little drier than last 2 runs but still gives us a measurable dose of waa precip. Still shows .5 in swva and .25 line is not far away. Probably dreaming but I guess I'll stick with areawide 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NAM has consistently given us 0.25"-0.50" through swva and 12z doesn't disappoint again. I'm curious to see if the GFS comes in dry again. One of these models are gonna really flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yea, it's a little drier than last 2 runs but still gives us a measurable dose of waa precip. Still shows .5 in swva and .25 line is not far away. Probably dreaming but I guess I'll stick with areawide 2-3. i'd like it be a more tightly packed system. i never trust these wide areas of light precip making it over the mountains...that's what makes me cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NAM has consistently given us 0.25"-0.50" through swva and 12z doesn't disappoint again. I'm curious to see if the GFS comes in dry again. One of these models are gonna really flop. Considering the GFS had us getting .01 in a small area in virginia for this clipper, i'd say neither model will flip but the GFS will bust like it did for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 i'd like it be a more tightly packed system. i never trust these wide areas of light precip making it over the mountains...that's what makes me cautious. Look at the trajectory though. It's sw oriented and driven totally by waa. Mtns won't rob much like a more westerly flow. No much of a downslope component going on here. Losing lift from interaction with the ns low is a different story.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 at least we have temps on our side...so whatever falls will stick again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Look at the trajectory though. It's sw oriented and driven totally by waa. Mtns won't rob much like a more westerly flow. No much of a downslope component going on here. Losing lift from interaction with the ns low is a different story.... Can you explain that last line Bob. That's one I don't get well. Is it because we would be in an area of sinking air between them? What would we ideally like to see with the northern low? Not there at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Look at the trajectory though. It's sw oriented and driven totally by waa. Mtns won't rob much like a more westerly flow. No much of a downslope component going on here. Losing lift from interaction with the ns low is a different story.... i feel like we'd want those systems to interact earlier than later. earlier interaction might mean more digging...which may allow the waa to come further north. correct me if i'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The afternoon commute is going to be a mess if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The afternoon commute is going to be a mess if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This could be similar to the back to back 87 storms but with around 18 less combined inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Another 1-2 would be fine with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Another 2.1" would be fine with me Fixed. Let's get out of this streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Fixed. Let's get out of this streak. Unfortunately, we would need a 4-6" area-wide snowstorm for DCA to record 2.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This could be similar to the back to back 87 storms but with around 18 less combined inches maybe we'll have 100:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 maybe we'll have 100 200:1 ratios. fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Can you explain that last line Bob. That's one I don't get well. Is it because we would be in an area of sinking air between them? What would we ideally like to see with the northern low? Not there at all? I'm not sure if my thinking is right but it's a really disconnected system. 2 distinct and separate batches of precip and they aren't working in tandem. NS low is lagging back towards the great lakes. My assumption is that as the waa to the south approaches the sw side of the ns low (the bad side of the low) it will lose some of it's punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 FWIW: 12z NAM IAD: .15" DCA: .17"BWI: .17" Westminster: .16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS will have like .04 at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS will have like .004 at DCA fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Add 20 db to that and it is a pretty nice bowing line of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS looking a little flatter at 500.............meh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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