mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Do you have the 850 temps?. all 3 airports between -11 and -12C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 it's looking like a 2-3" event with these temps/ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 curious. Any movement N with the .25 line? there's not really a .25" line anywhere around here. no real change to those areas (way sw and offshore) tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 everyone is in the .1"+ area around here. Does my heart good. Maybe I can get another 1.5" That would be awesome. I'd also like that for making the original favored CWG scenario from a couple of days ago look decent. I think I like 1-2 inches for the storm. The euro is in line with the median of the sref guidance and the close to what the high res nam have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 it's looking like a 2-3" event with these temps/ratios Except DCA. They will get only .05 which will still manage to equal .01 of measured snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Do you have the 850 temps?. BWI- -4 and -12.6 DCA- -4 and -11.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 all 3 airports between -11 and -12C Thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 BWI- -4 and -12.6 DCA- -4 and -11.2 Ravensrule asked that, not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Does my heart good. Maybe I can get another 1.5" That would be awesome. I'd also like that for making the original favored CWG scenario from a couple of days ago look decent. I think I like 1-2 inches for the storm. The euro is in line with the median of the sref guidance and the close to what the high res nam have. yeah, sounds good. i'd take another 1" and call it a solid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ravensrule asked that, not me. Weird..... I just hit quote, not sure why it showed up as you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I thought last night that if we are to see one of those miracle improvements it would start at 18z, about 24 hours before the start. I wonder what the top end of something like this is. In the best of circumstances, how high could it go? I'm reading of Euro improvement over last night. By how much has it improved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I thought last night that if we are to see one of those miracle improvements it would start at 18z, about 24 hours before the start. I wonder what the top end of something like this is. In the best of circumstances, how high could it go? I'm reading of Euro improvement over last night. By how much has it improved? mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get. Yea, breaking the .2" barrier is gonna be way tough. The ONLY thing I can see is getting lucky with a heavy burst at onset. waa precip can do that from time to time. Temp profiles would probably be a pretty efficient sponge wringer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get. The 500h doesn't look that great though it does have beeter warm advection than the last run which probably is what puts us back in the .10" plus range. I don't see this becoming a .25 inch storm. The flow just is too westerly to really get the gulf involved at this latitude (famous last words). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ravensrule asked that, not me. Makes sense that people would confuse us since i am such a good forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The 500h doesn't look that great though it does have beeter warm advection than the last run which probably is what puts us back in the .10" plus range. I don't see this becoming a .25 inch storm. The flow just is too westerly to really get the gulf involved at this latitude (famous last words). yeah 500 isnt that good anywhere really.. the gfs was pretty lame imo. i think it is probably wise to hedge given the potential ratios tho. think cwg's thoughts are about perfect for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 fwiw- 12z hires nam sim shows snow falling for about 6+/- hours tomorrow. And all of us will be awake this time. Obs thread gon b rockin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Whats the timing on this 5-7 pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 yeah 500 isnt that good anywhere really.. the gfs was pretty lame imo. i think it is probably wise to hedge given the potential ratios tho. think cwg's thoughts are about perfect for now. The vort isn't that bad it's that the flow never really backs ahead of us. This looks like a .12-15 event in terms of QPF. I'm not sure I trust the GFS with the euro now a little wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 looks like nam/euro vs gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Bob Chill's forecast of 1-3/2-4 from a few days ago sounds like an excellent forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 There is a wtf event sunday night/monday morning especially west of DC. .10 of mix with temps below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If we can all get comparably crazy high ratios like last night for tomorrow, many of us could get 2" if the Euro/NAM/SREF combo is correct. DCA might get 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 There is a wtf event sunday night/monday morning especially west of DC. .10 of mix with temps below freezing Ji, Thanks. I was so busy looking at the warming next week that I looked over Sunday into MOnday morning. I'm gonna edit my outlook to reflect the possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The vort isn't that bad it's that the flow never really backs ahead of us. This looks like a .12-15 event in terms of QPF. I'm not sure I trust the GFS with the euro now a little wetter. Looks like the in-house HPC ensemble bias corrected QPF gave us a good starting point yesterday. I used it to initialize the snowfall amounts on the WWD...which the forecast was very similar to today's ensemble of model QPF. I like it! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 There is a wtf event sunday night/monday morning especially west of DC. .10 of mix with temps below freezing Just don't start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If we can all get comparably crazy high ratios like last night for tomorrow, many of us could get 2" if the Euro/NAM/SREF combo is correct. DCA might get 0.5". \ I worry a little about the ratios as the sounding at 21Z from the NAM looks OK and would support dendrites, however by 00Z it would not and would probably yield plates. The latter don't give you the nice ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 \ I worry a little about the ratios as the sounding at 21Z from the NAM looks OK and would support dendrites, however by 00Z it would not and would probably yield plates. The latter don't give you the nice ratios. Wes, is there a website or study that shows that? I am intrigued by your statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Wes, is there a website or study that shows that? I am intrigued by your statement Marty Baxter wrote an article on it. Here's a PDF about his work. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/PUBLICATIONS/Baxter2005.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Marty Baxter wrote an article on it. Here's a PDF about his work. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/PUBLICATIONS/Baxter2005.pdf Same study, a bit more interactive: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/slrmap.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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