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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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i think at this point, we can probably count on a swath of precip (famous last words), but the question is how much of it makes it over the mountains/reaches the  ground/etc, as well as how quickly it's moving.  if i was getting paid to make a forecast, i'd probably go 1-2" right now areawide while noting the bust potential.

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Yea, it's a little drier than last 2 runs but still gives us a measurable dose of waa precip. Still shows .5 in swva and .25 line is not far away. Probably dreaming but I guess I'll stick with areawide 2-3.

 

i'd like it be a more tightly packed system.  i never trust these wide areas of light precip making it over the mountains...that's what makes me cautious.

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NAM has consistently given us 0.25"-0.50" through swva and 12z doesn't disappoint again. I'm curious to see if the GFS comes in dry again. One of these models are gonna really flop.

 

Considering the GFS had us getting .01 in a small area in virginia for this clipper, i'd say neither model will flip but the GFS will bust like it did for the clipper.

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i'd like it be a more tightly packed system. i never trust these wide areas of light precip making it over the mountains...that's what makes me cautious.

Look at the trajectory though. It's sw oriented and driven totally by waa. Mtns won't rob much like a more westerly flow. No much of a downslope component going on here.

Losing lift from interaction with the ns low is a different story....

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Look at the trajectory though. It's sw oriented and driven totally by waa. Mtns won't rob much like a more westerly flow. No much of a downslope component going on here.

Losing lift from interaction with the ns low is a different story....

Can you explain that last line Bob. That's one I don't get well. Is it because we would be in an area of sinking air between them? What would we ideally like to see with the northern low? Not there at all?

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Look at the trajectory though. It's sw oriented and driven totally by waa. Mtns won't rob much like a more westerly flow. No much of a downslope component going on here.

Losing lift from interaction with the ns low is a different story....

 

i feel like we'd want those systems to interact earlier than later.  earlier interaction might mean more digging...which may allow the waa to come further north.  correct me if i'm wrong.

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Can you explain that last line Bob. That's one I don't get well. Is it because we would be in an area of sinking air between them? What would we ideally like to see with the northern low? Not there at all?

 

I'm not sure if my thinking is right but it's a really disconnected system. 2 distinct and separate batches of precip and they aren't working in tandem. NS low is lagging back towards the great lakes. My assumption is that as the waa to the south approaches the sw side of the ns low (the bad side of the low) it will lose some of it's punch. 

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