87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Look at the trajectory though. It's sw oriented and driven totally by waa. Mtns won't rob much like a more westerly flow. No much of a downslope component going on here. Losing lift from interaction with the ns low is a different story.... i feel like we'd want those systems to interact earlier than later. earlier interaction might mean more digging...which may allow the waa to come further north. correct me if i'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The afternoon commute is going to be a mess if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Another 1-2 would be fine with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Another 2.1" would be fine with me Fixed. Let's get out of this streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Fixed. Let's get out of this streak. Unfortunately, we would need a 4-6" area-wide snowstorm for DCA to record 2.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This could be similar to the back to back 87 storms but with around 18 less combined inches maybe we'll have 100:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 maybe we'll have 100 200:1 ratios. fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Can you explain that last line Bob. That's one I don't get well. Is it because we would be in an area of sinking air between them? What would we ideally like to see with the northern low? Not there at all? I'm not sure if my thinking is right but it's a really disconnected system. 2 distinct and separate batches of precip and they aren't working in tandem. NS low is lagging back towards the great lakes. My assumption is that as the waa to the south approaches the sw side of the ns low (the bad side of the low) it will lose some of it's punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 FWIW: 12z NAM IAD: .15" DCA: .17"BWI: .17" Westminster: .16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS will have like .04 at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS will have like .004 at DCA fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Add 20 db to that and it is a pretty nice bowing line of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS looking a little flatter at 500.............meh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 7 letter analysis: gfs sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS with under .1" of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS shutout. Toss the NAM. Follow the GFS and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS shutout. Toss the NAM. Follow the GFS and EURO. Didn't the GFS and Euro end up showing a shutout for last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Didn't the GFS and Euro end up showing a shutout for last night? No, it had precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS will have like .04 at DCA nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 this is another pathetic winter event for us in another pathetic winter in any way you want to look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 nailed it Verbatim.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 this is from yesterday's CFS2 (time sensitive), but get used to it folks because it probably won't change thru FEB http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif edit: no sooner did I post it and it updated to today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 0.04 at DCA would be as good as last night's clipper . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 this is from yesterday's CFS2 (time sensitive), but get used to it folks because it probably won't change thru FEB http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif edit: no sooner did I post it and it updated to today We are the new desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Chasing mositure rather than cold should be our new thing. We are just so damn dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Chasing mositure rather than cold should be our new thing. We are just so damn dry. Fear not...come spring and summer we'll probably get a dousing from big thunderstorms and big synoptic scale systems. Warm+wet and then cold+dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 this is from yesterday's CFS2 (time sensitive), but get used to it folks because it probably won't change thru FEB http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif edit: no sooner did I post it and it updated to today Just stop. It is never right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 the whole setup looks pretty similar, just too dry. i think i'm gonna let go of this one and whatever happens happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What were the QPF totals from the Clipper at the airports and/or surrounding areas... Would like to compare with expectations for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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