Wonderdog Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 no snow on gfs thru Feb 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 well the nam still likes us enough. i'm assuming total qpf is around 0.20. gfs and euro still on the dry side. we have a day for things to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delgto04 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 A crapload of rain though next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delgto04 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Pattern reload? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 At least starting around Feb 9 we can start to talk about the sun angle again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 well the nam still likes us enough. i'm assuming total qpf is around 0.20. gfs and euro still on the dry side. we have a day for things to improve. I know the nam like us, but does anyone ever believe it? Has it verified once this year? Ever? Maybe today things will trend wetter for the goofus and queen euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nam did well with the clipper so I'm riding it like a custom Harley with Jenna Jameson on the back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I know the nam like us, but does anyone ever believe it? Has it verified once this year? Ever? Maybe today things will trend wetter for the goofus and queen euro. Did well last night... .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Sunsnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nam did well with the clipper so I'm riding it like a custom Harley with Jenna Jameson on the back. HI-RES Nam looks pretty good as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 @bjohnson...that's why i'm cautiously optimistic. the nam has been kind of consistent the last couple runs. plus, we have a southern stream (though weak) to work with this time and high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 @bjohnson...that's why i'm cautiously optimistic. the nam has been kind of consistent the last couple runs. plus, we have a southern stream (though weak) to work with this time and high ratios. I am not going all in or anything but I do find it interesting to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I am not going all in or anything but I do find it interesting to say the least i'm curious what type of orientation the precip is going to take. seems the gfs and euro still have the swath of precip it's just drier, like it dries out as it crosses the mountains, which makes me think it's going to be a west-east event instead of bands that come at us from the southwest (which is more ideal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z NAM seems to be going the wrong way on the 12z run thru 21 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z NAM seems to be going the wrong way on the 12z run thru 21 hrs Downhill slope @ 500 will do us no favors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Sim radar at 30 looks ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 at 27 hrs, precip shield ain't so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yea. Look at 700 too. Nam likes that southern shield. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 definitely weaker than 0 z and 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12Z NAM looks decent at 36. Snowing throughout region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 ~5 hrs of precip at DCA. Maybe 0.15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 i think at this point, we can probably count on a swath of precip (famous last words), but the question is how much of it makes it over the mountains/reaches the ground/etc, as well as how quickly it's moving. if i was getting paid to make a forecast, i'd probably go 1-2" right now areawide while noting the bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yea, it's a little drier than last 2 runs but still gives us a measurable dose of waa precip. Still shows .5 in swva and .25 line is not far away. Probably dreaming but I guess I'll stick with areawide 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NAM has consistently given us 0.25"-0.50" through swva and 12z doesn't disappoint again. I'm curious to see if the GFS comes in dry again. One of these models are gonna really flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Yea, it's a little drier than last 2 runs but still gives us a measurable dose of waa precip. Still shows .5 in swva and .25 line is not far away. Probably dreaming but I guess I'll stick with areawide 2-3. i'd like it be a more tightly packed system. i never trust these wide areas of light precip making it over the mountains...that's what makes me cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NAM has consistently given us 0.25"-0.50" through swva and 12z doesn't disappoint again. I'm curious to see if the GFS comes in dry again. One of these models are gonna really flop. Considering the GFS had us getting .01 in a small area in virginia for this clipper, i'd say neither model will flip but the GFS will bust like it did for the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 i'd like it be a more tightly packed system. i never trust these wide areas of light precip making it over the mountains...that's what makes me cautious. Look at the trajectory though. It's sw oriented and driven totally by waa. Mtns won't rob much like a more westerly flow. No much of a downslope component going on here. Losing lift from interaction with the ns low is a different story.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 at least we have temps on our side...so whatever falls will stick again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Look at the trajectory though. It's sw oriented and driven totally by waa. Mtns won't rob much like a more westerly flow. No much of a downslope component going on here. Losing lift from interaction with the ns low is a different story.... Can you explain that last line Bob. That's one I don't get well. Is it because we would be in an area of sinking air between them? What would we ideally like to see with the northern low? Not there at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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