Dr No Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Since we've been plagued with snow holes since 09/10, I agree that any frozen is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I really don't buy anything other than an all snow event, I really don't. But I guess anything is possible around here. Yes, yes, yes. The antecedent arctic airmass is the key. The EC is once again leading the way, being the first model that didn't slam a weak low from the OH Vly directly east through the terrain and into the strong arctic-aided CAD here in the mid Atlantic. I'd be more concerned about the system trending too far south and we end up cold and dry. At thr very least, even with the unlikely northern low track, we get a few inches of snow in the strong WAA pattern. The other nice thing about an arctic airmass: you can't transition back to a more normal thermal regime without going through a period of good isentropic ascent, considering how stacked those low-mid level theta surfaces are initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'd take 3" followed by hvy IP versus 1-2" of powdery dryslot I would too but I'd also take a little jog to the south for the storm track, just to make sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Seriously loving this latest GFS run as well as the Euro. In some ways it looks to have 12/5/02 written all over it. I'd lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GFS is a bit wetter but fairly close vs 12z with surface progression. One thing I did notice it 500 keeps ticking better. Just a hunch but I have a feeling the gfs will start trending south with the surface low tonight. It's showing up in the approach and pass of the ull energy. These comparisons show what I'm talking about (12z on left - 18z on right): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GFS is a bit wetter but fairly close vs 12z with surface progression. One thing I did notice it 500 keeps ticking better. Just a hunch but I have a feeling the gfs will start trending south with the surface low tonight. It's showing up in the approach and pass of the ull energy. These comparisons show what I'm talking about (12z on left - 18z on right): 12-18zgfs5h.JPG 12-18z500.JPG I agree bob, and what I like is that the low comes more from the SW on the Euro and more so on the recent 18z gfs compared to the 12z. It is possible the southern stream wave could be a bit underestimated, which of course would do good things for us. Regardless, I like our spot, but am cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I agree bob, and what I like is that the low comes more from the SW on the Euro and more so on the recent 18z gfs compared to the 12z. It is possible the southern stream wave could be a bit underestimated, which of course would do good things for us. Regardless, I like our spot, but am cautiously optimistic. It's not a very complicated system. I think our paranoia (which is justified) is getting in the way with the fact that waa precip breaking out in front of a modest area of vorticity in a slightly amplified flow is pretty easy to model and not really high on the bust potential. At least not this close. Major shift in track isn't that likely at this point either because the good globals are pretty close as it is now. My above paragraph is a long way of saying it's getting close to certain that our biggest area wide storm since jan 2011 has become high probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i dont know if we care about the ens mean but it is slightly south and east of the OP Yea looks decent for us, colder. .5 in DC, .6 BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i dont know if we care about the ens mean but it is slightly south and east of the OP I like that, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i dont know if we care about the ens mean but it is slightly south and east of the OP I would care if they were further north/west, so I care if they are further south/east thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i dont know if we care about the ens mean but it is slightly south and east of the OP I thought the members were consistent and good. To me, that's better than the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Based on Euro, Euro ensembles, and GFS ensembles I'd be shocked if GFS doesn't trend south, and it's a huge deal down here. We notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I thought the members were consistent and good. To me, that's better than the mean. Not all are good though I think almost all would give some snow. Some still take a track farther north than we'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 yeah....that was kind of my gist...that when it comes to a discrete event at this range the mean becomes increasingly less useful versus the proclivity of individual members The probabilities for various Ptypes from the 18Z GEFS ensemble members has the probability for snow much higher than either sleet or freezing rain through 06Z 26 Jan. I think that is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Earlier today people were asking about verification rates.....fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 fwiw, 21z SREFs at the end of the run are pretty darn cold and at hr. 87 (equal to the 0Z NAM's 84 hrs) has the 540 thickness down along the VA/NC border I know, I know, out of their effective range, but consistent with a colder solution of the Euro nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not sure if this has been posted but HPC appears to be going way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Earlier today people were asking about verification rates.....fwiw. Looks like Euro is best? Hard to read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not sure if this has been posted but HPC appears to be going way south. Seems strange since it goes against all guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not sure if this has been posted but HPC appears to be going way south. That is only thru 7 p.m. Thursday night, that does not include the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I really hope this storm doesn't speed up and put all the good precip down early am Friday when everyone is asleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not sure if this has been posted but HPC appears to be going way south. I think they're talking about the snow from the minor disturbance which is coming through before our storm which is coming about 24 hours later (Friday 12z and onward). You can see it says valid 00z Thursday - 00z Friday. But this disturbance is helping to reinforce the cold air for our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That is only thru 7 p.m. Thursday night, that does not include the storm. Yeah - you have to remember to look at the valid times weathervswife! 00z Friday is 7pm EST Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not sure if this has been posted but HPC appears to be going way south. Way to early-- our event will be Friday. Is that the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Way to early-- our event will be Friday. Is that the clipper? Yep, my bad. I wasn't expecting the clipper to bring anything down this way. Thrown off my game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The 00Z 60hr nam looks likeit is going to track the low farther south than 18Z did for what that is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yep, my bad. I wasn't expecting the clipper to bring anything down this way. Thrown off my game. They are pretty north on the Friday system.. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 that's pretty far south with that clipper I like that setting the stage for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 They are pretty north on the Friday system.. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg Huff, that's like identical 18z operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Looks like Euro is best? Hard to read Yes....in this order. 00z Euro Ensembles 00z Euro 12z GFS Ensembles 12z GFS 00z UKMET 00z GFS Ensembles 00z GFS 00z CMC 00z NOGAPS Although I'm not sure why it doesn't include the 12z Euro, 12z UKMET, 12z CMC, 12z NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.