Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Here is DCA at 96 hrs..very close to sleet...I'd still lock it in...3-4" followed by hvy sleet...nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Here is DCA at 96 hrs..very close to sleet...I'd still lock it in...3-4" followed by hvy sleet...nice Definitely, BWI pretty much all snow, and that sounding there takes very little cold trending to really make you want to lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 heavy sleet is the most frustrating winter event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I got my answer, I won't be posting them. Forum Tip: You can post anything from the NWS or sites that you don't have to login/subscription for. Places like Twisterdata, PSU E-Wall, All NWS/NOAA/Government sites, etc. Most of these places have all the data free anyway because the GFS/NAM etc. are products of the US Government which by default is free for the public. The only catch is when it comes to the Euro or the CMC, however, on the forums we usually paraphrase or give out details of the run in our own words. You can still say for example "Well, at hr 156 850 temps on the euro for IAD are -.6°C" That's totally fine and, in fact encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 heavy sleet is the most frustrating winter event meh.. after 3-4" it's a nice solid cap to help keep it around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 99 hrs on 18z gfs imby probably still snow, with some grains; almost all the precip has fallen by then RESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD HPA M C C DEG M/S E = Estimated Surface Height 998. 73. -2.3 -3.0 200.5 6.1 975. 263. -3.6 -4.3 206.4 11.4 950. 469. -4.8 -5.1 208.2 15.3 925. 677. -5.4 -5.6 213.1 19.7 900. 893. -3.6 -3.9 222.5 26.3 850. 1350. 0.3 -0.3 234.5 35.8 800. 1836. -0.4 -0.6 244.9 37.0 750. 2351. -2.4 -2.5 252.4 35.4 700. 2897. -5.0 -5.3 256.3 33.0 650. 3476. -8.1 -8.5 257.9 31.6 600. 4094. -11.4 -11.5 252.7 31.7 one other consideration re the NAM, recall it was the farthest North with the precip in the last storm at the end of its range and was wrong if it's making a similar error with this event, it's right there with the GFS and almost the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Here is DCA at 96 hrs..very close to sleet...I'd still lock it in...3-4" followed by hvy sleet...nice Yay for heavy sleet? I hope we can eek out a mostly sn event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yay for heavy sleet? I hope we can eek out a mostly sn event. I'd take 3" followed by hvy IP versus 1-2" of powdery dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'd take 3" followed by hvy IP versus 1-2" of powdery dryslot Agreed. Dry slots are heartbreaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'd take 3" followed by hvy IP versus 1-2" of powdery dryslot My bet is it'll be ripping dendrites haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Well judging by the temps after the storm, any snow or ice that falls wouldn't be melting anytime fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'd take 3" followed by hvy IP versus 1-2" of powdery dryslot Any frozen is good frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Any frozen is good frozen. yep..these are just model runs....they dont really matter once the event happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Since we've been plagued with snow holes since 09/10, I agree that any frozen is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I really don't buy anything other than an all snow event, I really don't. But I guess anything is possible around here. Yes, yes, yes. The antecedent arctic airmass is the key. The EC is once again leading the way, being the first model that didn't slam a weak low from the OH Vly directly east through the terrain and into the strong arctic-aided CAD here in the mid Atlantic. I'd be more concerned about the system trending too far south and we end up cold and dry. At thr very least, even with the unlikely northern low track, we get a few inches of snow in the strong WAA pattern. The other nice thing about an arctic airmass: you can't transition back to a more normal thermal regime without going through a period of good isentropic ascent, considering how stacked those low-mid level theta surfaces are initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'd take 3" followed by hvy IP versus 1-2" of powdery dryslot I would too but I'd also take a little jog to the south for the storm track, just to make sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Seriously loving this latest GFS run as well as the Euro. In some ways it looks to have 12/5/02 written all over it. I'd lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Seriously loving this latest GFS run, in some ways this looks to have 12/5/02 written all over it. it isn't the worst comparison, but that was a much better track with a coastal transfer...kind of an A/B hybrid...better track/worse air mass....we don't have a southern stream like that storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GFS is a bit wetter but fairly close vs 12z with surface progression. One thing I did notice it 500 keeps ticking better. Just a hunch but I have a feeling the gfs will start trending south with the surface low tonight. It's showing up in the approach and pass of the ull energy. These comparisons show what I'm talking about (12z on left - 18z on right): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GFS is a bit wetter but fairly close vs 12z with surface progression. One thing I did notice it 500 keeps ticking better. Just a hunch but I have a feeling the gfs will start trending south with the surface low tonight. It's showing up in the approach and pass of the ull energy. These comparisons show what I'm talking about (12z on left - 18z on right): 12-18zgfs5h.JPG 12-18z500.JPG I agree bob, and what I like is that the low comes more from the SW on the Euro and more so on the recent 18z gfs compared to the 12z. It is possible the southern stream wave could be a bit underestimated, which of course would do good things for us. Regardless, I like our spot, but am cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I agree bob, and what I like is that the low comes more from the SW on the Euro and more so on the recent 18z gfs compared to the 12z. It is possible the southern stream wave could be a bit underestimated, which of course would do good things for us. Regardless, I like our spot, but am cautiously optimistic. It's not a very complicated system. I think our paranoia (which is justified) is getting in the way with the fact that waa precip breaking out in front of a modest area of vorticity in a slightly amplified flow is pretty easy to model and not really high on the bust potential. At least not this close. Major shift in track isn't that likely at this point either because the good globals are pretty close as it is now. My above paragraph is a long way of saying it's getting close to certain that our biggest area wide storm since jan 2011 has become high probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i dont know if we care about the ens mean but it is slightly south and east of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i dont know if we care about the ens mean but it is slightly south and east of the OP Yea looks decent for us, colder. .5 in DC, .6 BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i dont know if we care about the ens mean but it is slightly south and east of the OP I like that, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i dont know if we care about the ens mean but it is slightly south and east of the OP I would care if they were further north/west, so I care if they are further south/east thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i dont know if we care about the ens mean but it is slightly south and east of the OP I thought the members were consistent and good. To me, that's better than the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Based on Euro, Euro ensembles, and GFS ensembles I'd be shocked if GFS doesn't trend south, and it's a huge deal down here. We notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I thought the members were consistent and good. To me, that's better than the mean. Not all are good though I think almost all would give some snow. Some still take a track farther north than we'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I thought the members were consistent and good. To me, that's better than the mean. yeah....that was kind of my gist...that when it comes to a discrete event at this range the mean becomes increasingly less useful versus the proclivity of individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 yeah....that was kind of my gist...that when it comes to a discrete event at this range the mean becomes increasingly less useful versus the proclivity of individual members The probabilities for various Ptypes from the 18Z GEFS ensemble members has the probability for snow much higher than either sleet or freezing rain through 06Z 26 Jan. I think that is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.