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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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haha that's a diesel snow hole, but it does look like the general precip shield shifted a hair north, which is probably a good thing for us...i think.

 

NS low near the great lakes is a little more organized. Kinda puts us a little more "in between". Not a place we want to be. We need that low to be a whole lot closer or weaker. Not that I'm saying this run is right. Just saying what I think is bad for us verbatim. 

 

Overall 500 progression is very very close to 12z. I would say the snow anus is impossible if I hadn't already witnessed it first hand a half dozen times in the last couple of years. 

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Bob, your analysis is probably spot on, but at this point the focus is probably the end result. And, comparing 24 hr precip maps at 6z sat again shows a slightly wetter result. That's what I'm taking from this. Trend continues.

 

Honestly, I've looked at too many panels so I might be screwing up my own logic. The ns low being weaker doesn't necessarily help because we need it to draw on moisture to the south. I think the prob on 18z is more of a disconnection between the 2 areas of precip so I suppose the low being stronger but further south is a better way to go. I'll have to defer here to someone else. I'm not 100% sure what is needed at the surface to "improve" our very marginal setup.

 

Edit: 18z is drier than 12z for the event overall. Especially to our sw where it counts. I think the trend was a net negative. 

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Honestly, I've looked at too many panels so I might be screwing up my own logic. The ns low being weaker doesn't necessarily help because we need it to draw on moisture to the south. I think the prob on 18z is more of a disconnection between the 2 areas of precip so I suppose the low being stronger but further south is a better way to go. I'll have to defer here to someone else. I'm not 100% sure what is needed at the surface to "improve" our very marginal setup.

 

Edit: 18z is drier than 12z for the event overall. Especially to our sw where it counts. I think the trend was a net negative. 

 

i have a feeling this is gonna be one of those storms where nowcasting is going to be in full effect.

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I will be happy with my half inch of powdery snowfall. Nothing like a walk with flakes in the air, while temps plummet to the teens with the wind chill approaching zero!!

 

I consider this to be a moderate event for our area. If I lived in Richmond, the snow capital of the southern mid-atlantic, I wouldn't blink an eye. 

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His map may be right.....this time, but I haven't seen his maps be too successful. I place ten times more faith in Ellinwoods. His is over in the Philly forum if anybody wants to grab it.

Ellinwood should quit his protest of our forum. He is here reading it all the time.
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I will be happy with my half inch of powdery snowfall. Nothing like a walk with flakes in the air, while temps plummet to the teens with the wind chill approaching zero!!

 

I consider this to be a moderate event for our area. If I lived in Richmond, the snow capital of the southern mid-atlantic, I wouldn't blink an eye. 

 

We are in a deficit unlike almost any other 95 city, as far as bigger snows go at least. RIC hasn't recorded a storm over 11" since 1983. That is a massive climatological anomaly. It could be measuring issues (Jan 96 and one or two of the 09-10 storms were close) but the fact remains that these numbers are in the books, incorrect or not.

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We are in a deficit unlike almost any other 95 city, as far as bigger snows go at least. RIC hasn't recorded a storm over 11" since 1983. That is a massive climatological anomaly. It could be measuring issues (Jan 96 and one or two of the 09-10 storms were close) but the fact remains that these numbers are in the books, incorrect or not.

I could swear RIC had over a foot in the end of Jan 2000 storm, maybe not at the airport but in the west end I swear we did

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I could swear RIC had over a foot in the end of Jan 2000 storm, maybe not at the airport but in the west end I swear we did

 

The original RIC total for 2000 was 12.5" but they revised it down years later. According to the snowfall map put out by LWX they should have recorded somewhere in the neighborhood of 14". Same thing for 1996. But given their history, an accurate measurement is far too much to ask for.

 

On topic, yes, this does look like a 1-3" event down here. Dry air is always a concern though. Wouldn't be surprised if this thing was extremely lame. Clipper-esque setups don't have a great track record for Central VA and south.

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