87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 doubtful. but some people might get snow on snow... if this stuff from tonight doesnt blow away tomorrow. that's always a win. snow on snow is kinda rare around here. i think the last time we had that was 2010, but i think it was a while before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nam and gfs starting hinting at a touch more amp yesterday but 12z kinda firmed up the possibility. I would guess that the gfs doesn't look as nice as the nam but still shows a touch better than 12-18z at 500. Last 2 runs were basically identical. The fun part is that there is even still room for improvement from what the nam just showed. Having .5+ of waa precip so close to our yards is pretty damn good all things considered. It's a lot easier to have some wiggle room at this range than praying an Ull delivers (last week was fun wasn't it? Lol) yep, still a whole 'nother day for things to improve even more. of course, it could go the other way, but trying to stay optimistic. the thing that is so promising is that this isn't a snow vs rain event...we're looking at snow and a cold snow at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I may be partially responsible for running him off as I called him an OCD control freak with social problems. All which is critical to forecasting weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 All which is critical to forecasting weather This is kinda awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This OCD control freak with social problems has not run off; the MA snowhole hovers firmly over the northern delmarva, with a whopping dusting thus far for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 NAM spits out .25" for DCA; ..22" for IAD; .25" for BWI and Annapolis the qpf is rather uniform even though places like BWI, Annapolis and IAD don't get into the dark greens of .25"-.49" That's very nice. All of it should stick too. And... ratios.... Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 ok stfu about mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Just so we can have one more taste of the goods before the gfs has a chance to change the mood. Hires nam shows about a 6 hour window of precip. Nice depiction of how close some of the heavier stuff is.....wouldn't it be nice with a 100 mile N shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS not too shabby thru 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I take that back. MD and VA dryslotted as transfer takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The black hole continues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 ughhh gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The NAM is better at picking up smaller features :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 comparing 18z to this run thru 36 hrs, I didn't notice any discernible differences, but I was hoping nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 lol- gfs is nearly identical to 18z which was nearly identical to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 total qpf http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p36&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_054_precip_p36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I did find a decent difference. Snow anus is bigger on 0z. Yay us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 lol- gfs is nearly identical to 18z which was nearly identical to 12z. Pretty much. The heights in front didn't come up as early, maybe didn't dig as much either. I don't know if this stopped the trend or just paused it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS also shows a much reduced QPF from the clipper event compared to NAM..so if it's wrong here it probably is with the next one too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 gfs can't handle this. the high res models are better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I hate the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 About .18" between the two events. any other year that'd be horrible. Buy everything out of Giant!! But what if the GFS is off by .18" ever think of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 gfs driest run of day and driest of all models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Why hasn't anyone been posting the RGEM? It should be fully in range tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 i think matt would say to run with the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 i think matt would say to run with the nam I guess it is sort of reasonable to say that since we are looking at the difference between .10 and .20 that the GFS might not be able to really pin that down all that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I guess it is sort of reasonable to say that since we are looking at the difference between .10 and .20 that the GFS might not be able to really pin that down all that well.i dunno. the gfs is more reasonable here still imo. if i had to bet between snow and snow hole im going snow hole every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 well that was a buzzkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Going to be interesting to see what the models do with this tomorrow. That sw is just now coming ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I guess it is sort of reasonable to say that since we are looking at the difference between .10 and .20 that the GFS might not be able to really pin that down all that well. I suppose but the difference to our sw is almost .5. That's what I find so odd. I totally get the nam and gfs are usually different but they really are at odds with precip in nc/ky/swva etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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