Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 haha that's a diesel snow hole, but it does look like the general precip shield shifted a hair north, which is probably a good thing for us...i think. NS low near the great lakes is a little more organized. Kinda puts us a little more "in between". Not a place we want to be. We need that low to be a whole lot closer or weaker. Not that I'm saying this run is right. Just saying what I think is bad for us verbatim. Overall 500 progression is very very close to 12z. I would say the snow anus is impossible if I hadn't already witnessed it first hand a half dozen times in the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Bob, your analysis is probably spot on, but at this point the focus is probably the end result. And, comparing 24 hr precip maps at 6z sat again shows a slightly wetter result. That's what I'm taking from this. Trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Bob, your analysis is probably spot on, but at this point the focus is probably the end result. And, comparing 24 hr precip maps at 6z sat again shows a slightly wetter result. That's what I'm taking from this. Trend continues. What map was that you posted Chill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Bob, your analysis is probably spot on, but at this point the focus is probably the end result. And, comparing 24 hr precip maps at 6z sat again shows a slightly wetter result. That's what I'm taking from this. Trend continues. Honestly, I've looked at too many panels so I might be screwing up my own logic. The ns low being weaker doesn't necessarily help because we need it to draw on moisture to the south. I think the prob on 18z is more of a disconnection between the 2 areas of precip so I suppose the low being stronger but further south is a better way to go. I'll have to defer here to someone else. I'm not 100% sure what is needed at the surface to "improve" our very marginal setup. Edit: 18z is drier than 12z for the event overall. Especially to our sw where it counts. I think the trend was a net negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Edit: 18z is drier than 12z for the event overall. Especially to our sw where it counts. I think the trend was a net negative. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Honestly, I've looked at too many panels so I might be screwing up my own logic. The ns low being weaker doesn't necessarily help because we need it to draw on moisture to the south. I think the prob on 18z is more of a disconnection between the 2 areas of precip so I suppose the low being stronger but further south is a better way to go. I'll have to defer here to someone else. I'm not 100% sure what is needed at the surface to "improve" our very marginal setup. Edit: 18z is drier than 12z for the event overall. Especially to our sw where it counts. I think the trend was a net negative. i have a feeling this is gonna be one of those storms where nowcasting is going to be in full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Kinda splitting hairs, but I think the whole nva, cmd region is slightly wetter on the new run. I'm only looking at our area. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 DT fully onboard with snowhole for DC/Balt. He probably laughed when he drew that up. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stg.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 DT fully onboard with snowhole for DC/Balt. He probably laughed when he drew that up. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stg.jpg DC, Baltimore. and Philly are all in the 1 inch area per that map. Thats not unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 DC, Baltimore. and Philly are all in the 1 inch area per that map. Thats not unreasonable. I didn't say it was unreasonable. I said he probably laughed when he drew it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm just happy the people to the south will get more snow. -no truthful weenie ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm just happy the people to the south will get more snow. -no truthful weenie ever Word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I didn't say it was unreasonable. I said he probably laughed when he drew it up. Its not a snowhole, which you did say I will say this, I dont see NC getting that much snow, its going to warm aloft pretty quickly so more sleet than snow is likely down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I will be happy with my half inch of powdery snowfall. Nothing like a walk with flakes in the air, while temps plummet to the teens with the wind chill approaching zero!! I consider this to be a moderate event for our area. If I lived in Richmond, the snow capital of the southern mid-atlantic, I wouldn't blink an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 His map may be right.....this time, but I haven't seen his maps be too successful. I place ten times more faith in Ellinwoods. His is over in the Philly forum if anybody wants to grab it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 His map may be right.....this time, but I haven't seen his maps be too successful. I place ten times more faith in Ellinwoods. His is over in the Philly forum if anybody wants to grab it.Ellinwood should quit his protest of our forum. He is here reading it all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ellinwood should quit his protest of our forum. He is here reading it all the time. HAHA.....like right now I agree with this especially since he lives closer to me than probably anyone else on this forum. Edit: As soon as I posted this, poof....he was gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ellinwood should quit his protest of our forum. He is here reading it all the time. His snowfall maps are always well configured and reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ellinwood should quit his protest of our forum. He is here reading it all the time. He will just start complaining again and be condescending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 He will just start complaining again and be condescending. Agreed. Count me in the "he can keep his boycott going" crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ellinwood should quit his protest of our forum. He is here reading it all the time. I don't blame him.. no fun zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I will be happy with my half inch of powdery snowfall. Nothing like a walk with flakes in the air, while temps plummet to the teens with the wind chill approaching zero!! I consider this to be a moderate event for our area. If I lived in Richmond, the snow capital of the southern mid-atlantic, I wouldn't blink an eye. We are in a deficit unlike almost any other 95 city, as far as bigger snows go at least. RIC hasn't recorded a storm over 11" since 1983. That is a massive climatological anomaly. It could be measuring issues (Jan 96 and one or two of the 09-10 storms were close) but the fact remains that these numbers are in the books, incorrect or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 We are in a deficit unlike almost any other 95 city, as far as bigger snows go at least. RIC hasn't recorded a storm over 11" since 1983. That is a massive climatological anomaly. It could be measuring issues (Jan 96 and one or two of the 09-10 storms were close) but the fact remains that these numbers are in the books, incorrect or not. I could swear RIC had over a foot in the end of Jan 2000 storm, maybe not at the airport but in the west end I swear we did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This is early, but it looks to me that the NAM 500 maps will end up better, again. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I could swear RIC had over a foot in the end of Jan 2000 storm, maybe not at the airport but in the west end I swear we did The original RIC total for 2000 was 12.5" but they revised it down years later. According to the snowfall map put out by LWX they should have recorded somewhere in the neighborhood of 14". Same thing for 1996. But given their history, an accurate measurement is far too much to ask for. On topic, yes, this does look like a 1-3" event down here. Dry air is always a concern though. Wouldn't be surprised if this thing was extremely lame. Clipper-esque setups don't have a great track record for Central VA and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This is early, but it looks to me that the NAM 500 maps will end up better, again. We will see. thru 24 hrs, the trough in Canada is a hair slower than 18z don't know the result but I think slower is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 thru 24 hrs, the trough in Canada is a hair slower than 18z don't know the result but I think slower is better The heights under in all the way to Texas are a little flatter too. Might allow them to rise in front of it later. IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 33hrs has a better trough and ridging than 18z at 39 hrs the change is subtle, however, so buyer beware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Slight improvement with the troff through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Slight improvement with the troff through 36. definitely holding it back some as well I'm hoping the slower evolution will be worth the wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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