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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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Thanks for posting that.  I had just posted about it.

 

Disagree about the jumping jacks.  The trend is real.  The only question is does it last.

 

The sketchy part is we can forget about help from the ns low. It's weak, it sucks, and it's in a terrible place. Nothing is going to change that. It's all about that stuff to the south. It got a little closer and a little wetter this run but it's becoming precarious as to how much better things can get. 

 

If the gfs takes a step back in couple hours then thing become bleak. Every little trend needs to go our way or hold serve or we are prob done with dreams of anybody getting 3 inches. Well, except for sw va or ric or someone down there. 

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i'd like to know why that area has filled in.  is it because we're closer to the event?  is the flow aloft more conducive to higher qpf totals than last run?  this is where my lack of knowledge fails me.

 

It's just a slightly better placement of the vorticity digging a little further south and the ul flow is backed ever so slightly better so it allows us to get  into the northern edge of the waa precip a little better. Overall, it's a really small step. But at least it was in the right direction. 

 

Just go back to the runs we saw before the euromonster that skewed everyone's brains. NS low passing to our nw with a nice pull of waa precip out in front. We're kinda hoping to get closer to that solution even though the ns low is weaker and the flow isn't as amplified. We're hoping for the same thing only worse. 

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It's just a slightly better placement of the vorticity digging a little further south and the ul flow is backed ever so slightly better so it allows us to get  into the northern edge of the waa precip a little better. Overall, it's a really small step. But at least it was in the right direction. 

 

Just go back to the runs we saw before the euromonster that skewed everyone's brains. NS low passing to our nw with a nice pull of waa precip out in front. We're kinda hoping to get closer to that solution even though the ns low is weaker and the flow isn't as amplified. We're hoping for the same thing only worse. 

 

yea, what's nice is we still have a legitimate full day for models to continue to trend better.  this is doubtful, but it would be pretty funny if this system ends up close to where it started on monday. 

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Jma joined the dry party along with euro...Gfs..etc. definite wet bias

not that that wasn't the correct forecast in the end, but the JMA amps everything up so it is always first to the party with the strong solution so that's why we recall it as having first "called" an event

in reality, it ends up doing what it did today by scaling back to the rest of the models and that then goes unnoticed and it gets remembered by those few storms that did come in big

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