Nor Easter Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Better ridging behind the 2nd piece of NRG allowing it dig more 18z NAM @39h vs 12z NAM @45h, should end up a wetter solution than 12z based off what's going on @39h. -Nor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nam is doing it. Higher height showing in front. Just look at the placement and alignment of the 552 line @ 500 compared to 12z. Area of vorticity is digging in a little better too. Come on baby...bring that slug of waa...you can do it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I spent my day telling everyone that this storms a bust... so we are basically guaranteed a blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Def better at 500 and sim radar at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 not spectacular, but not a shutout either, and probably better (didn't see the last run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not there yet but a decent step. At least the majority of the area is now in .1 or better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Solid 1-2 on the NAM. I'll take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Solid 1-2 on the NAM. I'll take it and run. No reason it can't continue to progress. I really have a feeling we improve further, it's pretty darn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 No reason it can't continue to progress. I really have a feeling we improve further, it's pretty darn close. It could improve but I'm honestly just hoping to see some white ground and would be happy with 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Steps. Go compare the 24 hr precip at 6z Sat on the 18z and 12z runs. You'll see the improvement. And it continues, we hope............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 fwiw- precip last 2 runs. Marked improvement but nothing to do jumping jacks over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 fwiw- precip last 2 runs. Marked improvement but nothing to do jumping jacks over. nam18-12precip.JPG Thanks for posting that. I had just posted about it. Disagree about the jumping jacks. The trend is real. The only question is does it last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 fwiw- precip last 2 runs. Marked improvement but nothing to do jumping jacks over. nam18-12precip.JPG i'd like to know why that area has filled in. is it because we're closer to the event? is the flow aloft more conducive to higher qpf totals than last run? this is where my lack of knowledge fails me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 fwiw- precip last 2 runs. Marked improvement but nothing to do jumping jacks over. nam18-12precip.JPG Absolutely. Maybe no jumping jacks but I'd think a bit of pep in your step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Thanks for posting that. I had just posted about it. Disagree about the jumping jacks. The trend is real. The only question is does it last. The sketchy part is we can forget about help from the ns low. It's weak, it sucks, and it's in a terrible place. Nothing is going to change that. It's all about that stuff to the south. It got a little closer and a little wetter this run but it's becoming precarious as to how much better things can get. If the gfs takes a step back in couple hours then thing become bleak. Every little trend needs to go our way or hold serve or we are prob done with dreams of anybody getting 3 inches. Well, except for sw va or ric or someone down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 it'll probably be important where that precip begins to develop down south tomorrow. looks like by midday tomorrow there's some precip developing over arkansas and i guess we want it to be a little more north of where nam is pointing to right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 No reason it can't continue to progress. I really have a feeling we improve further, it's pretty darn close. our zip codes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 our zip codes? Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 i'd like to know why that area has filled in. is it because we're closer to the event? is the flow aloft more conducive to higher qpf totals than last run? this is where my lack of knowledge fails me. It's just a slightly better placement of the vorticity digging a little further south and the ul flow is backed ever so slightly better so it allows us to get into the northern edge of the waa precip a little better. Overall, it's a really small step. But at least it was in the right direction. Just go back to the runs we saw before the euromonster that skewed everyone's brains. NS low passing to our nw with a nice pull of waa precip out in front. We're kinda hoping to get closer to that solution even though the ns low is weaker and the flow isn't as amplified. We're hoping for the same thing only worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Today's CWG thoughts on the storm. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/fridays-fickle-storm-will-snowflakes-fail/2013/01/23/ab65f20c-6592-11e2-85f5-a8a9228e55e7_blog.html#pagebreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's just a slightly better placement of the vorticity digging a little further south and the ul flow is backed ever so slightly better so it allows us to get into the northern edge of the waa precip a little better. Overall, it's a really small step. But at least it was in the right direction. Just go back to the runs we saw before the euromonster that skewed everyone's brains. NS low passing to our nw with a nice pull of waa precip out in front. We're kinda hoping to get closer to that solution even though the ns low is weaker and the flow isn't as amplified. We're hoping for the same thing only worse. yea, what's nice is we still have a legitimate full day for models to continue to trend better. this is doubtful, but it would be pretty funny if this system ends up close to where it started on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Jma joined the dry party along with euro...Gfs..etc. definite wet bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Jma joined the dry party along with euro...Gfs..etc. definite wet bias not that that wasn't the correct forecast in the end, but the JMA amps everything up so it is always first to the party with the strong solution so that's why we recall it as having first "called" an event in reality, it ends up doing what it did today by scaling back to the rest of the models and that then goes unnoticed and it gets remembered by those few storms that did come in big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The jma is like joe bastardi . It's always the first to see the biggest storms because it does over amplify everything. If the storm pans out...jma saw it first. So just like joe bastardi..it's the Dave kingman of models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z GFS has the dreaded snow hole over MD/NoVA west of the bay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 hahaha! do I need to add any analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z GFS has the dreaded snow hole over MD/NoVA west of the bay! haha that's a diesel snow hole, but it does look like the general precip shield shifted a hair north, which is probably a good thing for us...i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 hahaha! do I need to add any analysis? 18zanus.JPG too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think Friday is looking a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think Friday is looking a little better. not that this run of the gfs is right, it really won't take too much of a shift for things to improve greatly (relatively speaking) imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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