Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 true...1/8/11 wasnt awful...we only got 1/2", but I think northern burbs did better jan 10 is definitely closer at 500.. don't recall specifics and wunderground radar isnt coming up but 2011 looked like a frontal passage almost http://radblast-sf.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_composite_archive?centerlat=38.85194397¢erlon=-77.03749847&radius=124&newmaps=1&type=N0R&type2=TR0&num=1&SD.epoch=1294462800&ED.epoch=1294549200&DELAY=60&delay=20&width=640&height=480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 jan 10 is definitely closer at 500.. don't recall specifics and wunderground radar isnt coming up but 2011 looked like a frontal passage almost http://radblast-sf.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_composite_archive?centerlat=38.85194397¢erlon=-77.03749847&radius=124&newmaps=1&type=N0R&type2=TR0&num=1&SD.epoch=1294462800&ED.epoch=1294549200&DELAY=60&delay=20&width=640&height=480 yeah..It was some sort of secondary front that lagged a clipper that strengthened off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 jan 10 is definitely closer at 500.. don't recall specifics and wunderground radar isnt coming up but 2011 looked like a frontal passage almost http://radblast-sf.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_composite_archive?centerlat=38.85194397¢erlon=-77.03749847&radius=124&newmaps=1&type=N0R&type2=TR0&num=1&SD.epoch=1294462800&ED.epoch=1294549200&DELAY=60&delay=20&width=640&height=480 That's the one that came through in the early morning. It was almost like a squall line of snow. It was a Saturday morning. A bunch of us were on here, watching on radar, traffic cams, etc. It was fast, but cool. It put down about 1.25 in Winchester. Seems like I remember some areas up around Frederick getting close to 2, but I could be wrong on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 .13 for all three major airports verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 .13 for all three major airports verbatim thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 thanks... Really squashes the clipper though, with dca only getting .03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm leaning back towards widespread 2-3" with some areas approaching 4. The last 3 gfs runs are really encouraging @ 500 for getting the waa precip in here. There could be some bursts of heaver snow embedded (not bands). I have a hunch that 18z will hold serve or improve. It's going to be a quick hitter but every flake that falls will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm leaning back towards widespread 2-3" with some areas approaching 4. The last 3 gfs runs are really encouraging @ 500 for getting the waa precip in here. There could be some bursts of heaver snow embedded (not bands). I have a hunch that 18z will hold serve or improve. It's going to be a quick hitter but every flake that falls will stick. Either way, I think its the next 3 runs that will give us what we want to know. By this time tomorrow we will have a pretty good idea. I'm hopeful that the improving trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Either way, I think its the next 3 runs that will give us what we want to know. By this time tomorrow we will have a pretty good idea. I'm hopeful that the improving trend continues. Yea, and considering the airmass, we only need .15 to get to 2" pretty much everywhere. I don't think .15 - .2 across most of the area is all that far fetched. And if I'm wrong...who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 if we get 2 inches....it will be a great storm all things considering. I got 2 inches on Christmas Eve and loved that storm. It was also a quick hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro implies some light icing issues on Monday night before the brief blowtorch in the N and W Burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yea, and considering the airmass, we only need .15 to get to 2" pretty much everywhere. I don't think .15 - .2 across most of the area is all that far fetched. And if I'm wrong...who cares? Question for ya....With the way this WV image looks, we have a brutal dry air mass in place, which will prevent the storm but tapping additional moisture. What could change to open up this source? Anything? Just trying to get a little less weenie. Or is it mostly due to the flatness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 next wed/thurs gfs is implying a secondary area of low pressure developing in the south while a piece of energy is diving down from canada. no phasing right now, but who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Question for ya....With the way this WV image looks, we have a brutal dry air mass in place, which will prevent the storm but tapping additional moisture. What could change to open up this source? Anything? Just trying to get a little less weenie. Don't worry about water vapor until maybe a 6 hours prior to precip (if at all). Everything is predicated on flow backing enough to the sw to open the door for the batch of precip to the s to ride up and over us. When the models were insistent that the ull flow was going to stay w-wnw through the meaninful part of the event, the slug of moisture to the south simply stayed south. That has slowly started to improve and that's the only thing we can really pay close attention to attm. We need the flow @ 500 to look like as much like a U and as little like an L as possible as the vort digs into the MW. That's about as simple as I can possibly explain it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 We still need .2 in QPF to make me happy. That's an additional .2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 next wed/thurs gfs is implying a secondary area of low pressure developing in the south while a piece of energy is diving down from canada. no phasing right now, but who knows... ADD weather weenies can barely focus on a crappy clipper and crappy "storm". Bringing up storms that may or may not happen next week is not good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Don't worry about water vapor until maybe a 6 hours prior to precip (if at all). Everything is predicated on flow backing enough to the sw to open the door for the batch of precip to the s to ride up and over us. When the models were insistent that the ull flow was going to stay w-wnw through the meaninful part of the event, the slug of moisture to the south simply stayed south. That has slowly started to improve and that's the only thing we can really pay close attention to attm. We need the flow @ 500 to look like as much like a U and as little like an L as possible as the vort digs into the MW. That's about as simple as I can possibly explain it. I've often noticed that the best precip is sometimes not even "under" the best areas on the water vapor. I always thought that the best precip would be located with the best moisturel, but its not. I have absolutely no explanation for this, and would actually like to have that one explained by someone who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Don't worry about water vapor until maybe a 6 hours prior to precip (if at all). Everything is predicated on flow backing enough to the sw to open the door for the batch of precip to the s to ride up and over us. When the models were insistent that the ull flow was going to stay w-wnw through the meaninful part of the event, the slug of moisture to the south simply stayed south. That has slowly started to improve and that's the only thing we can really pay close attention to attm. We need the flow @ 500 to look like as much like a U and as little like an L as possible as the vort digs into the MW. That's about as simple as I can possibly explain it. Great explanation, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I've often noticed that the best precip is sometimes not even "under" the best areas on the water vapor. I always thought that the best precip would be located with the best moisturel, but its not. I have absolutely no explanation for this, and would actually like to have that one explained by someone who knows. My general knowledge is that it needs upward motion to go along with it. Without lift there is nothing to make it precipitate. Moist flow just cruising along at the same altitude won't do it unless it hits mountains. Since areas of vorticity in the upper levels creates a lifting motion out in front, precip will break out in front of vorts strong enough to create enough lift and have also have enough moisture available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I've often noticed that the best precip is sometimes not even "under" the best areas on the water vapor. I always thought that the best precip would be located with the best moisturel, but its not. I have absolutely no explanation for this, and would actually like to have that one explained by someone who knows. If I remember correctly water vapor imagery gives you the best idea of whats going one at around 400mb which is often above the level of where your precipitation develops. If you want to look for upper level impulses, and dry slots it is great. If you are looking for the heaviest rain areas look at Visible and IR imagery though the latter can also be deceiving when low top convection is going on or if you get fooled by cirrus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 ADD weather weenies can barely focus on a crappy clipper and crappy "storm". Bringing up storms that may or may not happen next week is not good for them. i just like the fact that we have potential in this pattern. tomorrow is probably gonna weak, but entertaining with the dusty snow flying around. i don't think anyone knows what's gonna happen on friday, but i wonder if the clipper got in the way of what the models were originally showing which was a better hit and maybe they start bringing it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I've often noticed that the best precip is sometimes not even "under" the best areas on the water vapor. I always thought that the best precip would be located with the best moisturel, but its not. I have absolutely no explanation for this, and would actually like to have that one explained by someone who knows. i've noticed that as well and think sometimes it has to do with a lack of lift, but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 My general knowledge is that it needs upward motion to go along with it. Without lift there is nothing to make it precipitate. Moist flow just cruising along at the same altitude won't do it unless it hits mountains. Since areas of vorticity in the upper levels creates a lifting motion out in front, precip will break out in front of vorts strong enough to create enough lift and have also have enough moisture available. you stole my answer. jk. you explained it better. we definitely need the added lift here being that we're on the lee side of the mountains (generally speaking). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Great explanations guys. Without getting into their usefulness, and so on, the SREFS are another step in the right direction. I looked, briefly at the precip totals for 24 hours, both for 10 pm (3z) Friday night on the 9z and 15 z runs (66 hours vs. 60 hours). It's noticeable. Keep the trend going, that's all I'm looking at. It's like others have said, the model isn't going to show what happens exactly. We'll have to wait for that. Better trends will probably end in a better result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Agree. SREFS look decent for the clipper and Friday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 i just like the fact that we have potential in this pattern. tomorrow is probably gonna weak, but entertaining with the dusty snow flying around. i don't think anyone knows what's gonna happen on friday, but i wonder if the clipper got in the way of what the models were originally showing which was a better hit and maybe they start bringing it back. Yes. Maybe once clipper clears guidance will change. But just a weenie here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Don't know if it shows much in the end, but you can already see just a bit more buckle out in front on the NAM 500 than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 SREFs definitely continue to improve with more spread toward larger precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Don't know if it will matter in the end but precip shield is further north at 42 on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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