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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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Warning: I'll probably go for a bust even if models improve so may want to ignore my posts or put me on ignore

 

Naturally, I'll bust the other way, but, and I have to say it, the GFS members all showed distinct improvement over 6z.  I know, I know, too close to use them, but the fact that they all improved some has to say something.

 

What's going to be key for us (watchers) is do these improvements sustain themselves, do they continue.  Or are they a blip?

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Snow hole on the GEFS too  :facepalm:

 

idk- I like the gefs all things considered. The area of heavier precip to the sw is what we have to count on. That's what I was alluding to in my earlier post about improvements @ 500. Just a couple slight improvements in amplification and the heavier area of waa gets here. Not saying I have confidence that it will but the 12z sure was a step in that direction. 

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I dont have the good maps...

 

But it holds serve on precip

 

>.10 for whole area..4 hour event

 

That's fine I guess. It's going to be a subtle one for sure. If the nam and gfs keep amping things a little this afternoon then it's looking like a whiff is off the table. Someone could squeeze 4" between the 2 events in less than 48 hours. That's pretty sweet imo. 

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