Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Question for ya....With the way this WV image looks, we have a brutal dry air mass in place, which will prevent the storm but tapping additional moisture. What could change to open up this source? Anything? Just trying to get a little less weenie. Don't worry about water vapor until maybe a 6 hours prior to precip (if at all). Everything is predicated on flow backing enough to the sw to open the door for the batch of precip to the s to ride up and over us. When the models were insistent that the ull flow was going to stay w-wnw through the meaninful part of the event, the slug of moisture to the south simply stayed south. That has slowly started to improve and that's the only thing we can really pay close attention to attm. We need the flow @ 500 to look like as much like a U and as little like an L as possible as the vort digs into the MW. That's about as simple as I can possibly explain it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 We still need .2 in QPF to make me happy. That's an additional .2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 next wed/thurs gfs is implying a secondary area of low pressure developing in the south while a piece of energy is diving down from canada. no phasing right now, but who knows... ADD weather weenies can barely focus on a crappy clipper and crappy "storm". Bringing up storms that may or may not happen next week is not good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Don't worry about water vapor until maybe a 6 hours prior to precip (if at all). Everything is predicated on flow backing enough to the sw to open the door for the batch of precip to the s to ride up and over us. When the models were insistent that the ull flow was going to stay w-wnw through the meaninful part of the event, the slug of moisture to the south simply stayed south. That has slowly started to improve and that's the only thing we can really pay close attention to attm. We need the flow @ 500 to look like as much like a U and as little like an L as possible as the vort digs into the MW. That's about as simple as I can possibly explain it. I've often noticed that the best precip is sometimes not even "under" the best areas on the water vapor. I always thought that the best precip would be located with the best moisturel, but its not. I have absolutely no explanation for this, and would actually like to have that one explained by someone who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Don't worry about water vapor until maybe a 6 hours prior to precip (if at all). Everything is predicated on flow backing enough to the sw to open the door for the batch of precip to the s to ride up and over us. When the models were insistent that the ull flow was going to stay w-wnw through the meaninful part of the event, the slug of moisture to the south simply stayed south. That has slowly started to improve and that's the only thing we can really pay close attention to attm. We need the flow @ 500 to look like as much like a U and as little like an L as possible as the vort digs into the MW. That's about as simple as I can possibly explain it. Great explanation, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I've often noticed that the best precip is sometimes not even "under" the best areas on the water vapor. I always thought that the best precip would be located with the best moisturel, but its not. I have absolutely no explanation for this, and would actually like to have that one explained by someone who knows. My general knowledge is that it needs upward motion to go along with it. Without lift there is nothing to make it precipitate. Moist flow just cruising along at the same altitude won't do it unless it hits mountains. Since areas of vorticity in the upper levels creates a lifting motion out in front, precip will break out in front of vorts strong enough to create enough lift and have also have enough moisture available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I've often noticed that the best precip is sometimes not even "under" the best areas on the water vapor. I always thought that the best precip would be located with the best moisturel, but its not. I have absolutely no explanation for this, and would actually like to have that one explained by someone who knows. If I remember correctly water vapor imagery gives you the best idea of whats going one at around 400mb which is often above the level of where your precipitation develops. If you want to look for upper level impulses, and dry slots it is great. If you are looking for the heaviest rain areas look at Visible and IR imagery though the latter can also be deceiving when low top convection is going on or if you get fooled by cirrus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 ADD weather weenies can barely focus on a crappy clipper and crappy "storm". Bringing up storms that may or may not happen next week is not good for them. i just like the fact that we have potential in this pattern. tomorrow is probably gonna weak, but entertaining with the dusty snow flying around. i don't think anyone knows what's gonna happen on friday, but i wonder if the clipper got in the way of what the models were originally showing which was a better hit and maybe they start bringing it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I've often noticed that the best precip is sometimes not even "under" the best areas on the water vapor. I always thought that the best precip would be located with the best moisturel, but its not. I have absolutely no explanation for this, and would actually like to have that one explained by someone who knows. i've noticed that as well and think sometimes it has to do with a lack of lift, but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 My general knowledge is that it needs upward motion to go along with it. Without lift there is nothing to make it precipitate. Moist flow just cruising along at the same altitude won't do it unless it hits mountains. Since areas of vorticity in the upper levels creates a lifting motion out in front, precip will break out in front of vorts strong enough to create enough lift and have also have enough moisture available. you stole my answer. jk. you explained it better. we definitely need the added lift here being that we're on the lee side of the mountains (generally speaking). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Great explanations guys. Without getting into their usefulness, and so on, the SREFS are another step in the right direction. I looked, briefly at the precip totals for 24 hours, both for 10 pm (3z) Friday night on the 9z and 15 z runs (66 hours vs. 60 hours). It's noticeable. Keep the trend going, that's all I'm looking at. It's like others have said, the model isn't going to show what happens exactly. We'll have to wait for that. Better trends will probably end in a better result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Agree. SREFS look decent for the clipper and Friday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 i just like the fact that we have potential in this pattern. tomorrow is probably gonna weak, but entertaining with the dusty snow flying around. i don't think anyone knows what's gonna happen on friday, but i wonder if the clipper got in the way of what the models were originally showing which was a better hit and maybe they start bringing it back. Yes. Maybe once clipper clears guidance will change. But just a weenie here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Don't know if it shows much in the end, but you can already see just a bit more buckle out in front on the NAM 500 than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 SREFs definitely continue to improve with more spread toward larger precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Don't know if it will matter in the end but precip shield is further north at 42 on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Better ridging behind the 2nd piece of NRG allowing it dig more 18z NAM @39h vs 12z NAM @45h, should end up a wetter solution than 12z based off what's going on @39h. -Nor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nam is doing it. Higher height showing in front. Just look at the placement and alignment of the 552 line @ 500 compared to 12z. Area of vorticity is digging in a little better too. Come on baby...bring that slug of waa...you can do it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I spent my day telling everyone that this storms a bust... so we are basically guaranteed a blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Def better at 500 and sim radar at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 not spectacular, but not a shutout either, and probably better (didn't see the last run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Not there yet but a decent step. At least the majority of the area is now in .1 or better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Solid 1-2 on the NAM. I'll take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Solid 1-2 on the NAM. I'll take it and run. No reason it can't continue to progress. I really have a feeling we improve further, it's pretty darn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 No reason it can't continue to progress. I really have a feeling we improve further, it's pretty darn close. It could improve but I'm honestly just hoping to see some white ground and would be happy with 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Steps. Go compare the 24 hr precip at 6z Sat on the 18z and 12z runs. You'll see the improvement. And it continues, we hope............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 fwiw- precip last 2 runs. Marked improvement but nothing to do jumping jacks over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 fwiw- precip last 2 runs. Marked improvement but nothing to do jumping jacks over. nam18-12precip.JPG Thanks for posting that. I had just posted about it. Disagree about the jumping jacks. The trend is real. The only question is does it last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 fwiw- precip last 2 runs. Marked improvement but nothing to do jumping jacks over. nam18-12precip.JPG i'd like to know why that area has filled in. is it because we're closer to the event? is the flow aloft more conducive to higher qpf totals than last run? this is where my lack of knowledge fails me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 fwiw- precip last 2 runs. Marked improvement but nothing to do jumping jacks over. nam18-12precip.JPG Absolutely. Maybe no jumping jacks but I'd think a bit of pep in your step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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