Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well, i think this 3 panel comparison says about 1000 words. 12z - 6z - 0z respectively: The bad trend has always been sh!t flow in front of the vort. Without a chance to back sw, we are screwed. But looking at the 3 panels side by side, it's plain as day why things all of a sudden look better at the surface. I don't think the gfs is a blip either. It's just honing in on ul flow becoming ever so slightly more favorable. There is room for more improvement too. This was a great example irt to how such a small change upstairs can make such a big difference in our yards. Who's sleeping tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Based on this run anyway, looks decent. Maybe we squeeze 2-4 with good ratios? Maybe a juicer trend has started? Hoping King EURO ups the game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well LWX did mention SR's would be in the 15-20:1 range for this "storm"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ugh..if I get dry slotted again... Damn Mountains. who cares....you have gotten like 6 times more snow than DC last winter and this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well LWX did mention SR's would be in the 15-20:1 range for this "storm"... so we would need 0.25" to get 4" and much of the area gets like 0.07"....cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If I come out of the next few days with 2" it would be a gigantic success for winter. God bless the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It is like a 3-4 hour event....as depicted whoever gets under good returns could get 2", but a lot could get dusting to 1/2"....it isn't going to be some congealed mass of precip....DC split certainly possible and any area of organization could be very shortlived....the saving grace is it will be cold... It's a modest event at best and nothing at worst but you have to admit seeing the ul flow backing to the wsw out in front is a pretty big step. It's always been about the waa in front. I never bought the deep digging wet solutions. We need a decent pull from the sw. There won't be a snowhole if that area of precip gets organized and overruns. I've never felt this to be better than 1-3 / 2-4. I still think 1-3 is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If I come out of the next few days with 2" it would be a gigantic success for winter. God bless the cold. Softball edit. I'll pass. But in all seriousness...you're right. And that's sad no matter how you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 who cares....you have gotten like 6 times more snow than DC last winter and this one Actually, I got a dusting from last week's storm when I was under a winter storm warning for 4-7 inches..soo...yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 so we would need 0.25" to get 4" and much of the area gets like 0.07"....cool I wouldn't even begin to predict totals on qpf or snow, but I think we just saw a marked improvement in several areas, not just the surface. If our hopes are slight improvements, and if we were to get those, this could at least be somewhat satisfying to us. In other words, we could see that 0.07 improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I wouldn't even begin to predict totals on qpf or snow, but I think we just saw a marked improvement in several areas, not just the surface. If our hopes are slight improvements, and if we were to get those, this could at least be somewhat satisfying to us. In other words, we could see that 0.07 improve. I feel cautiously optimistic about 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS weenie rescue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Just tossin a bone....get a little more dig out of this and we're back to getting some sort of surface reflection going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Northern Vort is the dominate vort on this run. Thats fine as long as the southern vort stays weak. If not we are gonna lose all the precip to it once it gets going. Obviously speaking for those of us to the NW. It definitely looks better than 0z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm with Bob about the 500 looking better. Just looking at it make it look like we would also be in the left exit (front) of an upper level jet streak. I still like 1-2 over less than 1 but still thinnk the dry slot is worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It is a sad commentary when we are holding our hats for a dusting to an inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It is a sad commentary when we are holding our hats for a dusting to an inch event. it's sad people want to constantly belittle our realistic snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 While not significant, it's amazing how the moods change with a couple model improvements. I was getting blasted last night for suggesting this thing could trend a bit better, giving us a couple inches. Obviously we're still a little bit out, and have plenty of time for +/- .15 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS is sucking us.......back in Wait till the EURO comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 While not significant, it's amazing how the moods change with a couple model improvements. I was getting blasted last night for suggesting this thing could trend a bit better, giving us a couple inches. Obviously we're still a little bit out, and have plenty of time for +/- .15 or so. The mood here is controlled by a few. It'll be interesting to watch the evolution of this (or devolution, too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I feel cautiously optimistic about 1-2" Probably take, what, 0.07-0.13 or so to pull that off? Just tossin a bone....get a little more dig out of this and we're back to getting some sort of surface reflection going... I think there's room for change. We still are 2+ days away from this. Gonna be interesting to see what the Euro serves up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm with Bob about the 500 looking better. Just looking at it make it look like we would also be in the left exit (front) of an upper level jet streak. I still like 1-2 over less than 1 but still thinnk the dry slot is worrisome. That was the cool thing about that run. Those changes started showing up really early and just got better. They weren't huge mileage wise, but their effect was pretty big out in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm with Bob about the 500 looking better. Just looking at it make it look like we would also be in the left exit (front) of an upper level jet streak. I still like 1-2 over less than 1 but still thinnk the dry slot is worrisome. It's kinda ironic that the only thing that could help us showed up today. I think my post was probably too optimistic though when I said room for improvement because my thinking is that a little more of a bend and we can take getting skunked off the table. Unless there are drastic changes the precip shield will not be very wide or long duration. If things hold, we can at least start counting on several hours of accum snow. I suppose the wildcard is if things get cranking to the south a little better. If they do then 3" could be easily attainable. Just a wag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's kinda ironic that the only thing that could help us showed up today. I think my post was probably too optimistic though when I said room for improvement because my thinking is that a little more of a bend and we can take getting skunked off the table. Unless there are drastic changes the precip shield will not be very wide or long duration. If things hold, we can at least start counting on several hours of accum snow. I suppose the wildcard is if things get cranking to the south a little better. If they do then 3" could be easily attainable. Just a wag. All we need for a nice event is 0.2+. It is possible. You gotta believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wait till the EURO comes out Don't forget the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The mood here is controlled by a few. It'll be interesting to watch the evolution of this (or devolution, too). Despite the often polyannish mood of this forum over the last 2 years, I have 3.5" of snow in the last 728 days IMBY....results talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Probably take, what, 0.07-0.13 or so to pull that off? I think there's room for change. We still are 2+ days away from this. Gonna be interesting to see what the Euro serves up. seems right....have to love not wasting any part of our paltry QPF cooling down a 43 degree air mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Mark my words right here and right now...the Euro is going to be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Despite the often polyannish mood of this forum over the last 2 years, I have 3.5" of snow in the last 728 days IMBY....results talk Well let's double that with this one OR NOT....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 For the newbs that don't know, the Mark my words line is a running joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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