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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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Well, i think this 3 panel comparison says about 1000 words. 12z - 6z - 0z respectively:

 

 

 

The bad trend has always been sh!t flow in front of the vort. Without a chance to back sw, we are screwed. But looking at the 3 panels side by side, it's plain as day why things all of a sudden look better at the surface. I don't think the gfs is a blip either. It's just honing in on ul flow becoming ever so slightly more favorable. There is room for more improvement too. This was a great example irt to how such a small change upstairs can make such a big difference in our yards.

 

Who's sleeping tonight?

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It is like a 3-4 hour event....as depicted whoever gets under good returns could get 2", but a lot could get dusting to 1/2"....it isn't going to be some congealed mass of precip....DC split certainly possible and any area of organization could be very shortlived....the saving grace is it will be cold...

 

It's a modest event at best and nothing at worst but you have to admit seeing the ul flow backing to the wsw out in front is a pretty big step. It's always been about the waa in front. I never bought the deep digging wet solutions. We need a decent pull from the sw. There won't be a snowhole if that area of precip gets organized and overruns.

 

I've never felt this to be better than 1-3 / 2-4. I still think 1-3 is on the table. 

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so we would need 0.25" to get 4" and much of the area gets like 0.07"....cool

 

I wouldn't even begin to predict totals on qpf or snow, but I think we just saw a marked improvement in several areas, not just the surface.  If our hopes are slight improvements, and if we were to get those, this could at least be somewhat satisfying to us.

 

In other words, we could see that 0.07 improve.

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I wouldn't even begin to predict totals on qpf or snow, but I think we just saw a marked improvement in several areas, not just the surface.  If our hopes are slight improvements, and if we were to get those, this could at least be somewhat satisfying to us.

 

In other words, we could see that 0.07 improve.

 

I feel cautiously optimistic about 1-2"

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While not significant, it's amazing how the moods change with a couple model improvements.  I was getting blasted last night for suggesting this thing could trend a bit better, giving us a couple inches.  Obviously we're still a little bit out, and have plenty of time for +/- .15 or so.  

 

The mood here is controlled by a few.  It'll be interesting to watch the evolution of this (or devolution, too). 

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I feel cautiously optimistic about 1-2"

 

Probably take, what, 0.07-0.13 or so to pull that off?

 

Just tossin a bone....get a little more dig out of this and we're back to getting some sort of surface reflection going...

 

I think there's room for change.  We still are 2+ days away from this.  Gonna be interesting to see what the Euro serves up.

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I'm with Bob about the 500 looking better.  Just looking at it make it look like we would also be in the left exit (front) of an upper level jet streak.  I still like 1-2 over less than 1 but still thinnk the dry slot is worrisome. 

 

That was the cool thing about that run.  Those changes started showing up really early and just got better.  They weren't huge mileage wise, but their effect was pretty big out in front.

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I'm with Bob about the 500 looking better.  Just looking at it make it look like we would also be in the left exit (front) of an upper level jet streak.  I still like 1-2 over less than 1 but still thinnk the dry slot is worrisome. 

 

It's kinda ironic that the only thing that could help us showed up today. I think my post was probably too optimistic though when I said room for improvement because my thinking is that a little more of a bend and we can take getting skunked off the table. Unless there are drastic changes the precip shield will not be very wide or long duration. If things hold, we can at least start counting on several hours of accum snow. 

 

I suppose the wildcard is if things get cranking to the south a little better. If they do then 3" could be easily attainable. Just a wag. 

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It's kinda ironic that the only thing that could help us showed up today. I think my post was probably too optimistic though when I said room for improvement because my thinking is that a little more of a bend and we can take getting skunked off the table. Unless there are drastic changes the precip shield will not be very wide or long duration. If things hold, we can at least start counting on several hours of accum snow. 

 

I suppose the wildcard is if things get cranking to the south a little better. If they do then 3" could be easily attainable. Just a wag. 

 

All we need for a nice event is 0.2+.   It is possible.  You gotta believe!

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