stormtracker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The snow hole is real. Ignore it at your own peril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What is NOVAforecaster's punishment for starting this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 For the newbs that don't know, the Mark my words line is a running joke. I don't care - I'm going to mark them anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Warning: I'll probably go for a bust even if models improve so may want to ignore my posts or put me on ignore Usually you are right anyway.. so even if you do... your words should be heeded. Ignore zwyts at your own peril Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Warning: I'll probably go for a bust even if models improve so may want to ignore my posts or put me on ignore Naturally, I'll bust the other way, but, and I have to say it, the GFS members all showed distinct improvement over 6z. I know, I know, too close to use them, but the fact that they all improved some has to say something. What's going to be key for us (watchers) is do these improvements sustain themselves, do they continue. Or are they a blip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zgummy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Does it even merit being called a storm? Did TWC name it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Usually you are right anyway.. so even if you do... your words should be heeded. Ignore zwyts at your own peril I agree completely. His record is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 I sentence myself to 6 months of no thread starting. What is NOVAforecaster's punishment for starting this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Snow hole on the GEFS too idk- I like the gefs all things considered. The area of heavier precip to the sw is what we have to count on. That's what I was alluding to in my earlier post about improvements @ 500. Just a couple slight improvements in amplification and the heavier area of waa gets here. Not saying I have confidence that it will but the 12z sure was a step in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GEFS is pretty useless at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I bet the battery in the bus is dead and the gas tank is empty. i found it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Last time we had a good clipper was Jan 2010 Last time we had a storm look ok then trend bad then end up good was Jan 2010 book it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro time correct? Can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Last time we had a good clipper was Jan 2010 Last time we had a storm look ok then trend bad then end up good was Jan 2010 book it? Like the way your thinking!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hour 54 on the Euro, not many differences from 00z run. Northern vort not digging into trough still, but could be more interaction this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 true...1/8/11 wasnt awful...we only got 1/2", but I think northern burbs did better zwts, can you give a quick rundown of the euro @ 500 irt flow backing before precip gets here when the panels come out? Basically, did it improve like the gfs or stay flat and crappy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Hour 60. A nice swath of light precip over the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Last time we had a good clipper was Jan 2010 Last time we had a storm look ok then trend bad then end up good was Jan 2010 book it? Cwg blog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I dont have the good maps... But it holds serve on precip >.10 for whole area..4 hour event That's fine I guess. It's going to be a subtle one for sure. If the nam and gfs keep amping things a little this afternoon then it's looking like a whiff is off the table. Someone could squeeze 4" between the 2 events in less than 48 hours. That's pretty sweet imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 true...1/8/11 wasnt awful...we only got 1/2", but I think northern burbs did better jan 10 is definitely closer at 500.. don't recall specifics and wunderground radar isnt coming up but 2011 looked like a frontal passage almost http://radblast-sf.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_composite_archive?centerlat=38.85194397¢erlon=-77.03749847&radius=124&newmaps=1&type=N0R&type2=TR0&num=1&SD.epoch=1294462800&ED.epoch=1294549200&DELAY=60&delay=20&width=640&height=480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 jan 10 is definitely closer at 500.. don't recall specifics and wunderground radar isnt coming up but 2011 looked like a frontal passage almost http://radblast-sf.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_composite_archive?centerlat=38.85194397¢erlon=-77.03749847&radius=124&newmaps=1&type=N0R&type2=TR0&num=1&SD.epoch=1294462800&ED.epoch=1294549200&DELAY=60&delay=20&width=640&height=480 That's the one that came through in the early morning. It was almost like a squall line of snow. It was a Saturday morning. A bunch of us were on here, watching on radar, traffic cams, etc. It was fast, but cool. It put down about 1.25 in Winchester. Seems like I remember some areas up around Frederick getting close to 2, but I could be wrong on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 .13 for all three major airports verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 thanks... Really squashes the clipper though, with dca only getting .03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm leaning back towards widespread 2-3" with some areas approaching 4. The last 3 gfs runs are really encouraging @ 500 for getting the waa precip in here. There could be some bursts of heaver snow embedded (not bands). I have a hunch that 18z will hold serve or improve. It's going to be a quick hitter but every flake that falls will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm leaning back towards widespread 2-3" with some areas approaching 4. The last 3 gfs runs are really encouraging @ 500 for getting the waa precip in here. There could be some bursts of heaver snow embedded (not bands). I have a hunch that 18z will hold serve or improve. It's going to be a quick hitter but every flake that falls will stick. Either way, I think its the next 3 runs that will give us what we want to know. By this time tomorrow we will have a pretty good idea. I'm hopeful that the improving trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Either way, I think its the next 3 runs that will give us what we want to know. By this time tomorrow we will have a pretty good idea. I'm hopeful that the improving trend continues. Yea, and considering the airmass, we only need .15 to get to 2" pretty much everywhere. I don't think .15 - .2 across most of the area is all that far fetched. And if I'm wrong...who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 if we get 2 inches....it will be a great storm all things considering. I got 2 inches on Christmas Eve and loved that storm. It was also a quick hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro implies some light icing issues on Monday night before the brief blowtorch in the N and W Burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yea, and considering the airmass, we only need .15 to get to 2" pretty much everywhere. I don't think .15 - .2 across most of the area is all that far fetched. And if I'm wrong...who cares? Question for ya....With the way this WV image looks, we have a brutal dry air mass in place, which will prevent the storm but tapping additional moisture. What could change to open up this source? Anything? Just trying to get a little less weenie. Or is it mostly due to the flatness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 next wed/thurs gfs is implying a secondary area of low pressure developing in the south while a piece of energy is diving down from canada. no phasing right now, but who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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