mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 holy Ukie at 72 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest 850s http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest0s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 850s http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest0s Ukmet is the worst performing model right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's not too late. If this was a lock I doubt you'd see a run like that Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 holy Ukie at 72 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest trends...even the UK is trending south, 12z had a bomb that changed most of 95 over to rain for a time. That looks like it will go south, and while its way better then the other guidance, would probably imply the best snow will be south of DC even. Its heading in the direction of the other models, just taking way longer to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ukmet is the worst performing model right? I thought I read it was 2nd to Euro, but maybe those are old stats what it does is slow things down which allows the solutions of last night and this morning, just 12-18 hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 trends...even the UK is trending south, 12z had a bomb that changed most of 95 over to rain for a time. That looks like it will go south, and while its way better then the other guidance, would probably imply the best snow will be south of DC even. Its heading in the direction of the other models, just taking way longer to get there. Very valid logic there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 trends...even the UK is trending south, 12z had a bomb that changed most of 95 over to rain for a time. That looks like it will go south, and while its way better then the other guidance, would probably imply the best snow will be south of DC even. Its heading in the direction of the other models, just taking way longer to get there. not so sure I agree with you that all the heavy stuff would go south of DC http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 not so sure I agree with you that all the heavy stuff would go south of DC http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest well, to be fair, you didn't say all the heavy stuff would be south the best would likely go that way, my mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I thought I read it was 2nd to Euro, but maybe those are old stats what it does is slow things down which allows the solutions of last night and this morning, just 12-18 hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 ukie again at 72 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I thought I read it was 2nd to Euro, but maybe those are old stats what it does is slow things down which allows the solutions of last night and this morning, just 12-18 hours later How the hell can you read that, if you can please tell me which model is 1,2 and 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 ukie again at 72 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Uk would give us more than 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 How the hell can you read that, if you can please tell me which model is 1,2 and 3. Highest number wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 ukie again at 72 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Mitch, those images sure make it look like the Ukie is really slowing it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 How the hell can you read that, if you can please tell me which model is 1,2 and 3. Look at the numbers at the top, not the graph itself..... It shows: 1. Euro 2. 12z GFS 3. UKIE 4. 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 not so sure I agree with you that all the heavy stuff would go south of DC http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Looking at that SLP you are probably right, but still its a step towards less amplified from its 12z, it just has way further to go compared to the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looking at that SLP you are probably right, but still its a step towards less amplified from its 12z, it just has way further to go compared to the other guidance. did you realize it's only 12 degrees at your house!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 We finally lost the GGEM as well... but it has a nice little snowstorm for VA beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 did you realize it's only 12 degrees at your house!!! Yea joy... honestly I HATE cold, I know that contradicts my love of snow in a way but I do not like cold if there is no snow involved. That is partly why I have been so disinterested in the cold is coming focus for some because without the STJ I knew it was likely to be cold/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 that's it, I quit for the night sweat dreams over a coating from the Euro..I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I will offer my optomist spin, heading into February our hope is that as the wavelengths shorten, if we can get the trough position into the east, its possible for the northern stream to dig enough to kick up something for us without help from the STJ. That is why sometimes Late Feb and early March can bring a moderate snowfall in Nina years. Perhaps we salvage something in that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Swimmate, can you share the link for that graph please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Swimmate, can you share the link for that graph please? Posted by jdrenken on accuwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro headed back towards the promise land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro headed back towards the promise land? Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Euro headed back towards the promise land? Next Hey, at least it wasn't a shutout. .15 for DCA would still give us our first 2" in two years..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm glad it held, I was ready to pull the plug-- even down my way. I need to just fire ACCUWEATHER and get SV-- trying to infer what will happen by reading the extrated data from BNA and TRI plus height and thickness falls in ROA and LYH is interesting (Their maps are VERY slow) But, my guess was right-- I'd be happy with the moderate event depicted for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This just might turn out to be a pretty decent winter for southern Virginia friend of mine moved to Richmond to get away from snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Might be a snowstorm after all. That is if you live in N Carolina and SE VA and if the 06Z NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The 06Z GFS juiced up a little bit from the OOZ run. That's not saying much though. Would still be looking at a trash can topper at best. The mountains are really doing a number on what little precip there is to be had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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