ravensrule Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Matt Noyes likes their potential: @MattNoyesNECN: After reviewing additional data this eve...my confidence increases on a substantial snow hit Fri Night Southern NewEng Did he state his reasoning, he knows his stuff I would be curious to know why he is so confident when that is going against almost all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Warm/Wet Cold/Dry The beat goes on as far as the 00Z NAM is concerned. Central and southern Virginia, northern North Carolina - the new snow capital of the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Did he state his reasoning, he knows his stuff I would be curious to know why he is so confident when that is going against almost all guidance. He says he believes that their will be rapid strenghtening along a baroclinic zone. Acknowledges that no operational models show this now, but believes 0z EURO will begin to pick up on it. Obviously doesnt help us but intriguing to watch unfold and see if he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Catchy, but not really true this winter.The majority of DCA precip in Dec (1.79 of 3.03 inches) fell on days with +2 or less temp departures, well under the avg monthly departure.The majority of MTD DCA precip in Jan (1.08 of 1.21 inches) fell on days with +4 departues, again under the monthly avg.More like cool/wet so far. Wait are you arguing that + days are cool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wait are you arguing that + days are cool? Sounds like it but it really is more like cloudy plus days are cooler than sunny plus days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Never have we seen ZERO, from the storm running to our south. This run actually had a decent amount of juice to it, it just missed us. Isn't that an entirely new outcome? What? Where were you last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Catchy, but not really true this winter. The majority of DCA precip in Dec (1.79 of 3.03 inches) fell on days with +2 or less temp departures, well under the avg monthly departure. The majority of MTD DCA precip in Jan (1.08 of 1.21 inches) fell on days with +4 departues, again under the monthly avg. More like cool/wet so far. I have no idea how a +4 departure is considered cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What? Where were you last week? Or last Feb and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What? Where were you last week? Oh, you mean at 200+ hours out? Yeah, I'm going to put stock in those because they totally matter right now. Sorry that my weenie eyes didn't hug the 240hr GFS. But if that's the case, and I should, I can't wait for Feb 1-2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Or last Feb and March. huh? what does last year have to do with this current storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 700mb has some healthy uvs for a clipper at 30 hrs on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think he's saying that the NAM is the first model for THIS storm to show zero precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 700mb has some healthy uvs for a clipper at 30 hrs on the GFSclipper thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38966-123-24-clipper/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think he's saying that the NAM is the first model for THIS storm to show zero precip Of course that's what I'm saying..... EDIT: Inside of ~200 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 clipper thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38966-123-24-clipper/ it's like you were just waiting for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 He says he believes that their will be rapid strenghtening along a baroclinic zone. Acknowledges that no operational models show this now, but believes 0z EURO will begin to pick up on it. Obviously doesnt help us but intriguing to watch unfold and see if he is right. Very interesting thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I have no idea how a +4 departure is considered cold. Didn't say cold. Cool, as in less than avg monthly departure on those particular wet days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Didn't say cold. Cool, as in less than avg monthly departure on those particular wet days. That's fine, but that is not what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That's fine, but that is not what I said. MTD DCA departure is +6.2 +4 is cooler than +6.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Good luck with your call. By the way, I'm loving my call right now actually. 1"-2" from the clipper looks pretty good, plus another 1"-2" on Friday isn't a reach either. There's no way the clipper snow won't stick around long enough for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think he's saying that the NAM is the first model for THIS storm to show zero precip I gotcha. My apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 At this point, the pattern might make Monday's storm more interesting....hopefully the Friday storm can get a good coastal to wind up and set up in the 50/50 spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 MTD DCA departure is +6.2 +4 is cooler than +6.2twisted logic. maybe if the precip came during really close to normal but +4 is a big departure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's my fault... I started the thread... I'll see myself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 twisted logic. maybe if the precip came during really close to normal but +4 is a big departure It's a third cooler than the actual monthly departure. Most of the precip fell on cooler than average days. Perfectly logical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 By the way, I'm loving my call right now actually. 1"-2" from the clipper looks pretty good, plus another 1"-2" on Friday isn't a reach either. There's no way the clipper snow won't stick around long enough for Friday. Well youre gonna need a little help on your Friday call if the 0z gfs is correct. Cause there is no storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's my fault... I started the thread... I'll see myself out. unless you somehow caused the Nino that we needed to die off and the STJ to go extinct then I doubt this is your fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 holy Ukie at 72 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well youre gonna need a little help on your Friday call if the 0z gfs is correct. Cause there is no storm. Yep. I see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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