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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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We gotta have that vort stronger to have any chance for it to get any precip into this stupid ass cold air. At least its over 3 days in advance instead of 6 hours before the event.

But what about sampling? Come on. It's ova, but maybe a miracle can happen and psu's theory about focusing on whats in front could mean something. 

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I sense sarcasm.....

 

Seriously though, I'm not saying this is going to trend back to some of the Euro mod events but I really don't see anyone can make their decision to punt on a funky NAM like this...... at 66 out.

it's shaky reasoning that the old models had a better idea than the new ones either way. i suppose we can hold out hope any additional sampling data will fix whatever wrongs the models are seeing but my hunch is that impact is much less than most wx board snow weenies want.
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it's shaky reasoning that the old models had a better idea than the new ones either way. i suppose we can hold out hope any additional sampling data will fix whatever wrongs the models are seeing but my hunch is that impact is much less than most wx board snow weenies want.

I think at this point you'd only have timing to help. Maybe get the clipper through faster, slow down the second piece some, put some room between them. Running out of time here.

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What do you mean? sorry mods, but yeah its funny how I'm telling everyone the truth about getting nothing, but what are you saying? lol

 

 

I have been following your "discussion" with PSU over on accuwx. You mentioned his idea here, but no one will know what you were getting at if they aren't following the accuwx thread.

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it's shaky reasoning that the old models had a better idea than the new ones either way. i suppose we can hold out hope any additional sampling data will fix whatever wrongs the models are seeing but my hunch is that impact is much less than most wx board snow weenies want.

 

I'm not saying the old models are right.  lol.  I'm saying that this NAM run was an entirely new outcome and can't be trusted in the least.  I'm not thinking about a 4"-8" storm anymore but don't see why when all is said and done, we don't have a few inches on the ground.

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I have been following your "discussion" with PSU over on accuwx. You mentioned his idea here, but no one will know what you were getting at if they aren't following the accuwx thread.

He is a huge weenie, and yes I keep telling him the lag time on the clipper over the east doesn't allow the heights to build out in front. Regardless of the NAM splitting the s/w, it levels itself out and the flatness is not going to be compensated by that CA s/w. Overall, the sampling isn't going to do us much, its just not. There is a chance small changes occur, and I don't think the clippers energy will sit there that long. 

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fixed. trend?

Me bittercasting? You know how bad I want snow, but I'm not gonna call for a snowstorm when its not there at the surface and not there at h5. When the set-up is not favorable, I'm not gonna thank sampling of energies, maybe small changes could occur, or for once something drastic will occur, but I don't buy it. What do you think? My bittercasting must imply a great amount of wishing on your end, get real. 

 

The models show it, the set-up was there, but the weak vorts, a flat pattern, and a more dominant northern s/w in the absence of a southern stream coupled with the inability to build heights in front on the EC makes it hard for there to be a storm. So, hows that bittercasting. 

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I'm not saying the old models are right.  lol.  I'm saying that this NAM run was an entirely new outcome and can't be trusted in the least.  I'm not thinking about a 4"-8" storm anymore but don't see why when all is said and done, we don't have a few inches on the ground.

You must be the biggest weenie ever...how is it an "entirely new outcome" ? The trend in all models today was to weaken the vorts and not develop any significant surface low reflection, and therefore not much WAA precipitation...I dont see why generally that trend wouldnt either continue or at least remain pat...Now we might not get Zippo like the NAM is suggesting but to say we may get anything more than some dandruff and maybe up to 1" is using weenie eyes right now.

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I'm not saying the old models are right.  lol.  I'm saying that this NAM run was an entirely new outcome and can't be trusted in the least.  I'm not thinking about a 4"-8" storm anymore but don't see why when all is said and done, we don't have a few inches on the ground.

 

 

Good luck with your call.

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Warm/Wet

Cold/Dry.

Catchy, but not really true this winter.

The majority of DCA precip in Dec (1.79 of 3.03 inches) fell on days with +2 or less temp departures, well under the avg monthly departure.

The majority of MTD DCA precip in Jan (1.08 of 1.21 inches) fell on days with +4 departues, again under the monthly avg.

More like cool/wet so far.

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You must be the biggest weenie ever...how is it an "entirely new outcome" ? The trend in all models today was to weaken the vorts and not develop any significant surface low reflection, and therefore not much WAA precipitation...I dont see why generally that trend wouldnt either continue or at least remain pat...Now we might not get Zippo like the NAM is suggesting but to say we may get anything more than some dandruff and maybe up to 1" is using weenie eyes right now.

 

Never have we seen ZERO, from the storm running to our south.  This run actually had a decent amount of juice to it, it just missed us.  Isn't that an entirely new outcome?

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