87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well the good news is it can't trend any drier for DC. lol...this is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 We gotta have that vort stronger to have any chance for it to get any precip into this stupid ass cold air. At least its over 3 days in advance instead of 6 hours before the event. But what about sampling? Come on. It's ova, but maybe a miracle can happen and psu's theory about focusing on whats in front could mean something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I was wondering when the first 0.00 run would happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 so we get no clipper or Friday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ready for a resurrection thread? Say the word. At this rate we will be lucky to have clouds. Yea lets start the heavy cloud event resurrection thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I like the trend. 0z and EURO may surprise tonight. Seems like the Clipper washes itself out which may allow for the gulf to be tapped. maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Warm/Wet Cold/Dry The beat goes on as far as the 00Z NAM is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Totally. We'll be in blues in now time. Models always trend back good after they go bad. I sense sarcasm..... Seriously though, I'm not saying this is going to trend back to some of the Euro mod events but I really don't see anyone can make their decision to punt on a funky NAM like this...... at 66 out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 at least I have a good night's sleep to look forward to once the GFS shoves the dagger in a little further and twists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 so we get no clipper or Friday storm? come on man.. clipper thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 so we get no clipper or Friday storm? All you can really do is laugh at this point. Dry through all the big cities on 95 DC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 it's long range NAM, how much faith can we put in it?DD, psu posts over in accuwx, not here. You're getting your boards mixed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I sense sarcasm..... Seriously though, I'm not saying this is going to trend back to some of the Euro mod events but I really don't see anyone can make their decision to punt on a funky NAM like this...... at 66 out. it's shaky reasoning that the old models had a better idea than the new ones either way. i suppose we can hold out hope any additional sampling data will fix whatever wrongs the models are seeing but my hunch is that impact is much less than most wx board snow weenies want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 it's the long range NAM, how much faith can we put in it? DD, psu posts over in accuwx, not here. You're getting your boards mixed up What do you mean? sorry mods, but yeah its funny how I'm telling everyone the truth about getting nothing, but what are you saying? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 it's shaky reasoning that the old models had a better idea than the new ones either way. i suppose we can hold out hope any additional sampling data will fix whatever wrongs the models are seeing but my hunch is that impact is much less than most wx board snow weenies want. I think at this point you'd only have timing to help. Maybe get the clipper through faster, slow down the second piece some, put some room between them. Running out of time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What do you mean? sorry mods, but yeah its funny how I'm telling everyone the truth about getting nothing, but what are you saying? lol I have been following your "discussion" with PSU over on accuwx. You mentioned his idea here, but no one will know what you were getting at if they aren't following the accuwx thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 it's shaky reasoning that the old models had a better idea than the new ones either way. i suppose we can hold out hope any additional sampling data will fix whatever wrongs the models are seeing but my hunch is that impact is much less than most wx board snow weenies want. I'm not saying the old models are right. lol. I'm saying that this NAM run was an entirely new outcome and can't be trusted in the least. I'm not thinking about a 4"-8" storm anymore but don't see why when all is said and done, we don't have a few inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I have been following your "discussion" with PSU over on accuwx. You mentioned his idea here, but no one will know what you were getting at if they aren't following the accuwx thread. He is a huge weenie, and yes I keep telling him the lag time on the clipper over the east doesn't allow the heights to build out in front. Regardless of the NAM splitting the s/w, it levels itself out and the flatness is not going to be compensated by that CA s/w. Overall, the sampling isn't going to do us much, its just not. There is a chance small changes occur, and I don't think the clippers energy will sit there that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 fixed. trend? Me bittercasting? You know how bad I want snow, but I'm not gonna call for a snowstorm when its not there at the surface and not there at h5. When the set-up is not favorable, I'm not gonna thank sampling of energies, maybe small changes could occur, or for once something drastic will occur, but I don't buy it. What do you think? My bittercasting must imply a great amount of wishing on your end, get real. The models show it, the set-up was there, but the weak vorts, a flat pattern, and a more dominant northern s/w in the absence of a southern stream coupled with the inability to build heights in front on the EC makes it hard for there to be a storm. So, hows that bittercasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm not saying the old models are right. lol. I'm saying that this NAM run was an entirely new outcome and can't be trusted in the least. I'm not thinking about a 4"-8" storm anymore but don't see why when all is said and done, we don't have a few inches on the ground. You must be the biggest weenie ever...how is it an "entirely new outcome" ? The trend in all models today was to weaken the vorts and not develop any significant surface low reflection, and therefore not much WAA precipitation...I dont see why generally that trend wouldnt either continue or at least remain pat...Now we might not get Zippo like the NAM is suggesting but to say we may get anything more than some dandruff and maybe up to 1" is using weenie eyes right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm not saying the old models are right. lol. I'm saying that this NAM run was an entirely new outcome and can't be trusted in the least. I'm not thinking about a 4"-8" storm anymore but don't see why when all is said and done, we don't have a few inches on the ground. Good luck with your call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 So I guess Boston isn't getting 20" from this one. Too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 We have already departed on this thread, if the storm is a bust NOVAForecaster needs to go down with his ship. No reset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 We have already departed on this thread, if the storm is a bust NOVAForecaster needs to go down with his ship. No reset. Says who, obviously any superstitions we have are nonexistent, mother nature will do whatever she wants, but why not just do it to satisfy some out there that want to try it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 nuclear power is the answer https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=474569679266738&set=a.170461579677551.41001.164132806977095&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Warm/Wet Cold/Dry. Catchy, but not really true this winter. The majority of DCA precip in Dec (1.79 of 3.03 inches) fell on days with +2 or less temp departures, well under the avg monthly departure. The majority of MTD DCA precip in Jan (1.08 of 1.21 inches) fell on days with +4 departues, again under the monthly avg. More like cool/wet so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 So I guess Boston isn't getting 20" from this one. Too bad. Matt Noyes likes their potential: @MattNoyesNECN: After reviewing additional data this eve...my confidence increases on a substantial snow hit Fri Night Southern NewEng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 nuclear power is the answer https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=474569679266738&set=a.170461579677551.41001.164132806977095&type=1&theater That is why Chicago has less snow than us this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You must be the biggest weenie ever...how is it an "entirely new outcome" ? The trend in all models today was to weaken the vorts and not develop any significant surface low reflection, and therefore not much WAA precipitation...I dont see why generally that trend wouldnt either continue or at least remain pat...Now we might not get Zippo like the NAM is suggesting but to say we may get anything more than some dandruff and maybe up to 1" is using weenie eyes right now. Never have we seen ZERO, from the storm running to our south. This run actually had a decent amount of juice to it, it just missed us. Isn't that an entirely new outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Good luck with your call. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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