TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Friday appears to be totally dead and soon to fade into nothing at all. Yes, the NAM is about to show literally nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I have no real scientific evidence to back this up but sometimes it seems like the models key on what's right in front of them and dampen out what comes behind. It is likely that the models are seeing it correctly now. That before the clipper was too insignificant for the globals to really pick up its influence but now are seeing its effects. There is a chance however though that once the clipper gets out of the way we see a healthier solution for Friday come back on in the picture. I think the 1st has an impact on the second. The clipper shortwave turns the flow to wnwly and then the Friday shortwave is just too close on its heals to back the flow enough to tap any moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Only .25 to loose on this run. Shortwave is flatter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Friday appears to be totally dead and soon to fade into nothing at all. I have no real scientific evidence to back this up but sometimes it seems like the models key on what's right in front of them and dampen out what comes behind. It is likely that the models are seeing it correctly now. That before the clipper was too insignificant for the globals to really pick up its influence but now are seeing its effects. There is a chance however though that once the clipper gets out of the way we see a healthier solution for Friday come back on in the picture. but not until Sat/Sun, if at all, it would seem right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 so we get no clipper or Friday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Only .25 to loose on this run. Shortwave is flatter again. gloating over no snow will get you no where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM really hangs that energy out in the sw a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Both the north and south vorts are weaker on the NAM through 54. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Both the north and south vorts are weaker on the NAM through 54. Not good. But at 54 it also seems to be picking up some GOM moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM really hangs that energy out in the sw a long time 21 hours from the California coast to the Nevada border. What is that, like 250, 300 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 the NAM will wait long enough to pull things north in the nick of time to bring the necessary warming to turn our snow chances into sleet or zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 But at 54 it also seems to be picking up some GOM moisture... Dont think its gonna be strong enough to make a difference. But I am just a weenie what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 yea this thing keeps trending worse. NAM really hangs that energy out in the sw a long time yea at 60 it's still in cali whereas last run it was already in kansas. i think, though could be wrong, that this is going to be a dry run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 yea this thing keeps trending worse. yea at 60 it's still in cali whereas last run it was already in kansas. i think, though could be wrong, that this is going to be a dry run. It could also be a signal that the NAM is out to lunch. It was originally much stronger with that vort. So much so, that it cut off near San Fran.Edit: that energy is still in Cali for 30 hours straight on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Yep you go from 1016 on 18z to 1021 on 0z and its game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 66 is a little juicy but outh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 redevelopment begins off NC/VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 lolz...NAM head south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 4th down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 4th down?Wait for more dataIt's a slower letdown that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 4th down? We went from 1st and 5 to 4th and 27 at post #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NAM says: You'll get nothing and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Wow, total whiff for the DMV area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Why would anyone care about this run??? It didn't resemble ANY run over the past week. If anything, it shows how these things are still trying to figure everything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Well the good news is it can't trend any drier for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 We gotta have that vort stronger to have any chance for it to get any precip into this stupid ass cold air. At least its over 3 days in advance instead of 6 hours before the event. Edit: Nothing has verified yet. But if it does. Shame on me for bashing the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Why would anyone care about this run??? It didn't resemble ANY run over the past week. If anything, it shows how these things are still trying to figure everything out. Totally. We'll be in blues in now time. Models always trend back good after they go bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Ready for a resurrection thread? Say the word. At this rate we will be lucky to have clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That's quite the ice storm down in NC however. 2M temps well below freezing at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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