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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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NO! JMA was the first to go with a big storm idea for 12/19/09

18Z GFS called the 2/06 storm 5 days in advance

Must have got 2 then...I just Googled it and found an old thread from Eastern on the JMA and the Blizz of Feb 2006. Maybe the GFS had it as well at about the same time frame.

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my expectations are 2-3".  i'm not gonna lie...a cosmetic snow just isn't gonna do much for me at this point.  we've had enough of those.  i'm ready for something a little more.  it's actually been almost 3 years since we've had a "cold" snow that was more than a couple inches, unless i'm mistaken.  that's a long wait.

If you think 3 years is a long wait then you haven't lived here long enough. 09/10 winter spoiled quite a few. 

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You are right, I have terrible memory but I thought it was much closer than 7 years ago. If I have time I will go back to Eastern to try and find that thread where Ji makes the JMA seem like the EURO.

 

NO! JMA was the first to go with a big storm idea for 12/19/09

18Z GFS called the 2/06 storm 5 days in advance

Yup, that is the one.

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I don't remember but I'll change my sig to that if the JMA scores a coup with this one

its like a cause and effect thing. I forget, something about the euro is better than all the models, something about the jma, therefore the jma is the best model or better than the euro.

Btw mitch srefs arent fresh til 3z, theres some solace

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If you think 3 years is a long wait then you haven't lived here long enough. 09/10 winter spoiled quite a few.

None of us are asking for another 09-10. But after these past few lousy years I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a simple 3-6/4-8" event given our climo. Cartoppers don't do much for me.
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its like a cause and effect thing. I forget, something about the euro is better than all the models, something about the jma, therefore the jma is the best model or better than the euro.

Btw mitch srefs arent fresh til 3z, theres some solace

I thought the 21Z srefs just came out??

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I thought the 21Z srefs just came out??

Their data assimilation is weird, idk wish DTK was here. Someone said its one run after the main 12z/0z, but another said they get it on the same plane. It probably is new, because I think thats what dtk said since the 18z held with last week's north trend but he said wait for 21z. 

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In all seriousness, has the JMA ever actually verified in it's existence?  Serious question.

It was awesome when I used it for two years in it's backyard (East Asia, Japan proper, etc.) ... But I never used it on this side of the pond.

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I still like a good February. Maybe 6-8" in feb and march combined. I suggested the other day that if we can sneak in a couple inches in the 1/26-2/2 period we might even be able to make median snowfall. If we don't it will be hard. But I have been pretty resolute that we would have to wait until February for anything significant. And I still like February to be -2 to -3 degrees.

A couple weeks ago I told HM that I liked 2/8, 2/20 and 3/1 as potential storm dates with the 1st being our 1st moderate event of the winter. He generally agreed with the 1st 2 windows and thought the 3rd might be delayed a bit past 3/1. These are mostly WAG on my part but I think a good event for us probably won't happen until after the 5th. Hopefully between now and then we can eek out a couple inches to get a head start. I still like DCA to reach at least 5" on the season and probably closer to 8".

I hope you're right, and that we can finally get some snow into DC for all to enjoy.  However, it is pretty sad that we're sitting here hoping that February can somehow reverse the trend of the first two months of this winter, at least regarding snowfall.  I have to admit that this winter has been disappointing to me, even with my very low expectations.  I guess I'll need to lower them even more for next winter.   :frostymelt:

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