WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Cynic. LOL, I guess we take in stride pretty well around here all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Tuesday afternoon. Don't give in. Much to be resolved. Its kinda funny, It was what, last Thursday night when we all watched VA and NC get thunder snow while our WSWs yielded virga and 3 flakes. At that point, this week looked cold and bone dry. Then a day or so later, the models had the polar vortex retreating and temps jumping into the 40s by this Friday. Then it looked like we might get a storm, but cutting to the NW with a snow/sleet rain slop-fest Last Friday we all would have been ecstatic over a chance at a few tenths of moisture falling into arctic air. The odds are we will see an inch of snow, maybe 2 or 3. But 2 consecutive runs of the Euro got everyone giddy and raised expectations. Lower em, its probably going to snow Friday. The model consensus still strongly points in that direction. If it doesn't, well we are all used to it by now and know how to take it in stride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 well it probably was dead when the GFS forecast it beyond 240 hours. Still, Matt was going for a rocking Feb. I still like a good February. Maybe 6-8" in feb and march combined. I suggested the other day that if we can sneak in a couple inches in the 1/26-2/2 period we might even be able to make median snowfall. If we don't it will be hard. But I have been pretty resolute that we would have to wait until February for anything significant. And I still like February to be -2 to -3 degrees. A couple weeks ago I told HM that I liked 2/8, 2/20 and 3/1 as potential storm dates with the 1st being our 1st moderate event of the winter. He generally agreed with the 1st 2 windows and thought the 3rd might be delayed a bit past 3/1. These are mostly WAG on my part but I think a good event for us probably won't happen until after the 5th. Hopefully between now and then we can eek out a couple inches to get a head start. I still like DCA to reach at least 5" on the season and probably closer to 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I don't know if this will cheer anyone up, but for the past couple days the 00Z runs have benefited from targeted observations off the Pac NW. That's a request that comes in from HPC's medium range to the SDM (Senior Duty Meteorologist). So, at least for now, I'm holding out some hope for the 00Z runs tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Some of the SREFs spit out close to an inch tomorrow night. With it as cold as a malafalla (lower teens, since the DP is areound 0 now) , even a dusting would make for a wonderful commute in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I don't know if this will cheer anyone up, but for the past couple days the 00Z runs have benefited from targeted observations off the Pac NW. That's a request that comes in from HPC's medium range to the SDM (Senior Duty Meteorologist). So, at least for now, I'm holding out some hope for the 00Z runs tonight.. What methods are used to obtain this data? Planes, ships, satelites??? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 With Friday's storm, we need a slower evolving southern component at this point (a Friday night event), and the upper energy in the western lakes to be a bit stronger to back the upper flow to the southwest. There's a danger this evolution could miss us entirely to the south, but you know that guidance struggles with northern branch upper level features at this time range..especially on the GFS. I think a LP moving through KY/S OH Thursday night/Friday AM is off the table. The NAM has some pretty good omega over us by late Friday PM and some of the SREF members show the stronger southern low (yeah I know its the SREFs out past 72 hrs.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 What methods are used to obtain this data? Planes, ships, satelites??? Thanks in advance. I believe planes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I believe planes.. Definitely planes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I might start that one now. Calling it the mjo8 blizzard At least if we start the thread now the models will be sure to lose the storm before all the weenies get their hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Speaking of the NAM, from NCEP's afternoon update: ...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWESTLATE THURS...PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE NAM/GFS HAVE BOTH TRENDED QUICKER OVER THEIR PAST 24 HRS OFRUNS...BUT THE NAM IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREADREACHING THE WEST COAST MID DAY THU. THERE SEEMS REASONABLECONFIDENCE IN THE NAM BEING A BIT TOO QUICK BASED ON THE REMAININGDETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SO WILL LEAVE OUT THE NAM ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Some of the SREFs spit out close to an inch tomorrow night. With it as cold as a malafalla (lower teens, since the DP is areound 0 now) , even a dusting would make for a wonderful commute in the AM. Sometimes that 1/2 of snow that freezes solid is worse than 4 inches. Especially the way the roads and drivers get around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 New data is overrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The JMA remains unimpressed with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I don't see it changing much. But come on guys, possible dusting to an inch Wednesday night, then another 1-3 inches on Friday. Anybody close to DC complaining about this week should take a close look back at what we have received so far this winter. 1 inch and then 1-3 is not too shabby for DC proper, yeah I know you guys north and west have had some decent storms. And as Ian said, February will be rockin', lol... There's always the token storm on the models for president's day. my expectations are 2-3". i'm not gonna lie...a cosmetic snow just isn't gonna do much for me at this point. we've had enough of those. i'm ready for something a little more. it's actually been almost 3 years since we've had a "cold" snow that was more than a couple inches, unless i'm mistaken. that's a long wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Sometimes that 1/2 of snow that freezes solid is worse than 4 inches. Especially the way the roads and drivers get around here. with a cold, blustery snow like that i wonder if it's better to not even treat the roads and just let it fly around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 New data is overrated yep, those and new hair styles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The JMA remains unimpressed with the other models. In all seriousness, has the JMA ever actually verified in it's existence? Serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 In all seriousness, has the JMA ever actually verified in it's existence? Serious question. Once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 23, 2013 Author Share Posted January 23, 2013 And when was that? Once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Once. On a sunny, 70 degree day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 2/06 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 In all seriousness, has the JMA ever actually verified in it's existence? Serious question. Once. And when was that? Ask Ji I cannot remember when, it was years ago but I remember him crowing how the JMA scores the coup. It was a big storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 2/06 right? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 2/06 right? Yes I believe so. It was the first model to show that storm. I am sure Ji can verify that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This was the storm the JMA scored its one and only coup: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_blizzard_of_2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NO! JMA was the first to go with a big storm idea for 12/19/09 18Z GFS called the 2/06 storm 5 days in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 This was the storm the JMA scored its one and only coup: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_blizzard_of_2006 I would take half that storm and be happy as can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NO! JMA was the first to go with a big storm idea for 12/19/09 18Z GFS called the 2/06 storm 5 days in advance You are right, I have terrible memory but I thought it was much closer than 7 years ago. If I have time I will go back to Eastern to try and find that thread where Ji makes the JMA seem like the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NO! JMA was the first to go with a big storm idea for 12/19/09 18Z GFS called the 2/06 storm 5 days in advance february 2006 mitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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