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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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Tuesday afternoon.

Don't give in. Much to be resolved.

Its kinda funny, It was what, last Thursday night when we all watched VA and NC get thunder snow while our WSWs yielded virga and 3 flakes. At that point, this week looked cold and bone dry. Then a day or so later, the models had the polar vortex retreating and temps jumping into the 40s by this Friday. Then it looked like we might get a storm, but cutting to the NW with a snow/sleet rain slop-fest  Last Friday we all would have been ecstatic over a chance at a few tenths of moisture falling into arctic air. The odds are we will see an inch of snow, maybe 2 or 3. But 2 consecutive runs of the Euro got everyone giddy and raised expectations. Lower em, its probably going to snow Friday. The model consensus still strongly points in that direction. If it doesn't, well we are all used to it by now and know how to take it in stride.

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well it probably was dead when the GFS forecast it beyond 240 hours. Still, Matt was going for a rocking Feb.

I still like a good February. Maybe 6-8" in feb and march combined. I suggested the other day that if we can sneak in a couple inches in the 1/26-2/2 period we might even be able to make median snowfall. If we don't it will be hard. But I have been pretty resolute that we would have to wait until February for anything significant. And I still like February to be -2 to -3 degrees.

A couple weeks ago I told HM that I liked 2/8, 2/20 and 3/1 as potential storm dates with the 1st being our 1st moderate event of the winter. He generally agreed with the 1st 2 windows and thought the 3rd might be delayed a bit past 3/1. These are mostly WAG on my part but I think a good event for us probably won't happen until after the 5th. Hopefully between now and then we can eek out a couple inches to get a head start. I still like DCA to reach at least 5" on the season and probably closer to 8".

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I don't know if this will cheer anyone up, but for the past couple days the 00Z runs have benefited from targeted observations off the Pac NW. That's a request that comes in from HPC's medium range to the SDM (Senior Duty Meteorologist). So, at least for now, I'm holding out some hope for the 00Z runs tonight..

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I don't know if this will cheer anyone up, but for the past couple days the 00Z runs have benefited from targeted observations off the Pac NW. That's a request that comes in from HPC's medium range to the SDM (Senior Duty Meteorologist). So, at least for now, I'm holding out some hope for the 00Z runs tonight..

 

What methods are used to obtain this data? Planes, ships, satelites??? Thanks in advance.

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With Friday's storm, we need a slower evolving southern component at this point (a Friday night event), and the upper energy in the western lakes to be a bit stronger to back the upper flow to the southwest.  There's a danger this evolution could miss us entirely to the south, but you know that guidance struggles with northern branch upper level features at this time range..especially on the GFS.  I think a LP moving through KY/S OH Thursday night/Friday AM is off the table.  The NAM has some pretty good omega over us by late Friday PM and some of the SREF members show the stronger southern low (yeah I know its the SREFs out past 72 hrs.) 

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Speaking of the NAM, from NCEP's afternoon update:

 

 

 


...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWESTLATE THURS...PREFERENCE:  NON-NAM COMPROMISECONFIDENCE:  AVERAGETHE NAM/GFS HAVE BOTH TRENDED QUICKER OVER THEIR PAST 24 HRS OFRUNS...BUT THE NAM IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREADREACHING THE WEST COAST MID DAY THU. THERE SEEMS REASONABLECONFIDENCE IN THE NAM BEING A BIT TOO QUICK BASED ON THE REMAININGDETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SO WILL LEAVE OUT THE NAM ATTM.
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Some of the SREFs spit out close to an inch tomorrow night.  With it as cold as a malafalla (lower teens, since the DP is areound 0 now) , even a dusting would make for a wonderful commute in the AM.

 

Sometimes that 1/2 of snow that freezes solid is worse than 4 inches. Especially the way the roads and drivers get around here.

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I don't see it changing much.  But come on guys, possible dusting to an inch Wednesday night, then another 1-3 inches on Friday. Anybody close to DC complaining about this week should take a close look back at what we have received so far this winter.  1 inch and then 1-3 is not too shabby for DC proper, yeah I know you guys north and west have had some decent storms.  And as Ian said, February will be rockin', lol...  There's always the token storm on the models for president's day. 

 

my expectations are 2-3".  i'm not gonna lie...a cosmetic snow just isn't gonna do much for me at this point.  we've had enough of those.  i'm ready for something a little more.  it's actually been almost 3 years since we've had a "cold" snow that was more than a couple inches, unless i'm mistaken.  that's a long wait.

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In all seriousness, has the JMA ever actually verified in it's existence?  Serious question.

 

 

Once.

 

 

And when was that?

 

 

Ask Ji I cannot remember when, it was years ago but I remember him crowing how the JMA scores the coup. It was a big storm as well.

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NO! JMA was the first to go with a big storm idea for 12/19/09

18Z GFS called the 2/06 storm 5 days in advance

 

You are right, I have terrible memory but I thought it was much closer than 7 years ago. If I have time I will go back to Eastern to try and find that thread where Ji makes the JMA seem like the EURO.

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