FrederickWX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 no worries.. early feb will be rockin I think you mean mid-Feb. And then early-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Then why include it in their 3pm briefing? Their next briefing will be very similar to the analysis in this thread with one huge difference. They will be happy about the latest turn of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wow, 18z pulls the plug down here on Friday now-- to close to a non event. Blacksburg seems fairly confident in their zone forecasts that we see snow. They really cut the highs down too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 mitch, I think it has more to do with the overall weakness of the sw coming into the pac nw. It just doesn't have any oomph. Not enough spin with it to turn the ul flow sw out in front. If it was stronger it would look much different out in front of it. At the very least we would go back to the early runs that showed a ns surface low in the mw passing to our n-w. The nice part of that setup was a simple slug of waa before it shut off. Now that it's not robust at all, no ns surface low really gets organized and there is practically no interaction to the south of it. It's just a big area of washed out crap that spits pity flakes compared to the earlier solutions. I think the 1st has an impact on the second. The clipper shortwave turns the flow to wnwly and then the Friday shortwave is just too close on its heals to back the flow enough to tap any moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Blacksburg seems fairly confident in their zone forecasts that we see snow. They really cut the highs down too. Yeah, I was shocked to see a 90% chance of snow Friday-- 18z doesn't have to be the end all, but the days trends are not good. The forecasted HIGHS were just ridiculous. It was a clear damming situation for days. You'd think they'd undercut in advance. I recall in Jan 30, 2010 people telling me that how could the snow lay, the high was forecast to be in the mid 30's. I was like-- expect snow and 18 all day. I think we were about 17 all day in LYH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think you mean mid-Feb. And then early-March. eh.. if we don't have much to show by like feb 15 or so it's pretty much a lost cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think the 1st has an impact on the second. The clipper shortwave turns the flow to wnwly and then the Friday shortwave is just too close on its heals to back the flow enough to tap any moisture. That's the way if seems a lot of times around here. The more complex things are, the less chance of something really working out. Even a robust little clipper "dominos" our Friday system to the ground. Any chance we can get enough birds to flap their wings and improive the prospects for Friday. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 eh.. if we don't have much to show by like feb 15 or so it's pretty much a lost cause. If we don't have any by feb 21 it is a lost cause. I'll have lost interest and will be more interested in my boat than in any potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hello Mt. Holly briefing: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Hop over to HPC and look at the 5 day map now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think the 1st has an impact on the second. The clipper shortwave turns the flow to wnwly and then the Friday shortwave is just too close on its heals to back the flow enough to tap any moisture. But you're rooting for the clipper!? How could you betray us like this? lol I see what you're saying running the loops but the sw is still not nearly as nice looking dropping out of canada as it was 3-4 days ago. It's just another perfect combination of factors that ensure us that we never get another warning criteria snow until 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Check out the Hecs feb 1 on 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah, I was shocked to see a 90% chance of snow Friday-- 18z doesn't have to be the end all, but the days trends are not good. The forecasted HIGHS were just ridiculous. It was a clear damming situation for days. You'd think they'd undercut in advance. I recall in Jan 30, 2010 people telling me that how could the snow lay, the high was forecast to be in the mid 30's. I was like-- expect snow and 18 all day. I think we were about 17 all day in LYH. I'd honestly like to see the temps barely make it into the upper 20's. I enjoy a nice fresh powder over wet snow and with it being so cold the ratios should be good if we get anything to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Check out the Hecs feb 1 on 18z gfs Wrong thread but I think starting a thread for the event is a really good idea though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 eh.. if we don't have much to show by like feb 15 or so it's pretty much a lost cause. Yeah... and frankly, if we can't get Friday's event to work out a little, I may be ready to pull the plug before February 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wrong thread but I think starting a thread for the event is a really good idea though. well it probably was dead when the GFS forecast it beyond 240 hours. Still, Matt was going for a rocking Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I might start that one now. Calling it the mjo8 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think the 1st has an impact on the second. The clipper shortwave turns the flow to wnwly and then the Friday shortwave is just too close on its heals to back the flow enough to tap any moisture. So would any slowing of the 2nd sw help? Is that something we might look for as a last hope over the next couple of days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wrong thread but I think starting a thread for the event is a really good idea though. Creating storm threads seem to be the kiss of death this season. Instead of creating a thread 5 or 7 days out, why not wait till a day or two out? Anything beyond that can go in one of the general threads. Pure superstition, but at this point, maybe some good luck is what we need to pull out of the slump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So would any slowing of the 2nd sw help? Is that something we might look for as a last hope over the next couple of days? If we could get some backing of the flow maybe but the clipper and the northern stream still might be a problem. I guess I'm saying I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I might start that one now. Calling it the mjo8 blizzard Weekend rule in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wrong thread but I think starting a thread for the event is a really good idea though. If this thing doesn't turn around tonight, I'm starting a new one for this one. It might get deleted, but I can't just sit back and watch. LOL, and to think some of us actually pretend to be adults during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 But come on guys, possible dusting to an inch Wednesday night, then another 1-3 inches on Friday. Anybody close to DC complaining about this week should take a close look back at what we have received so far this winter. 1 inch and then 1-3 is not too shabby for DC proper Haha, you act as if the snow has already fallen! The key word is "possible!" We are probably not at the end game until the QPF is almost zero for Friday. And if we do get something on Wednesday night, it'll probably sublimate by sunrise Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Tuesday afternoon. Don't give in. Much to be resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Tuesday afternoon. Don't give in. Much to be resolved. I don't know if you're right but I might as well stay in it. We still have a shot, good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 fortunately we usually start to run into a wall after mid feb.. Sun angle!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think the drier trend has reached its limit. From here on in it's got to only get better. It's not like we haven't seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Tuesday afternoon. Don't give in. Much to be resolved. If I was in a foxhole in Afghanistan with both legs blown off and enemy troops advancing with a tank, I want you there beside me. "Don't worry Randy, it's a flesh wound, we'll be out and grilling steaks and drankin' cold ones by the end of the week". In all seriousness, the way the GFS has somewhat improved, I wouldn't write this thing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think the drier trend has reached its limit. From here on in it's got to only get better. It's not like we haven't seen that before. True. Can't get drier than parched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 True. Can't get drier than parched. Cynic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If I was in a foxhole in Afghanistan with both legs blown off and enemy troops advancing with a tank, I want you there beside me. "Don't worry Randy, it's a flesh wound, we'll be out and grilling steaks and drankin' cold ones by the end of the week".In all seriousness, the way the GFS has somewhat improved, I wouldn't write this thing off. I gotta contribute something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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