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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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Interesting read.  I was wondering, as far as forecasting this one (or for that matter, any storm), isn't it fair to say that the models provide the prediction?  So if a model is being used as the basis for predicting something that is not actually in the model, should we leave that to the model?

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I thought we said that about late December, and mid-January, and now late-January... When will the pushback of the time for actual snow end?!?

 

fortunately we usually start to run into a wall after mid feb..

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How is 18z better? I think it's identical to even worse with the ns vort that 12z. Flow in front is the same or worse. If you're looking for a trend, 18z didn't start one. 

 

i was just thinking the vort looked a hair south, but you're right, it's still flat out ahead.  basically, it's the same.  i still think being 3 days out, things could change...though i don't have the knowledge to say whether it will a good trend or not.

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i was just thinking the vort looked a hair south, but you're right, it's still flat out ahead.  basically, it's the same.  i still think being 3 days out, things could change...though i don't have the knowledge to say whether it will a good trend or not.

I don't see it changing much.  But come on guys, possible dusting to an inch Wednesday night, then another 1-3 inches on Friday. Anybody close to DC complaining about this week should take a close look back at what we have received so far this winter.  1 inch and then 1-3 is not too shabby for DC proper, yeah I know you guys north and west have had some decent storms.  And as Ian said, February will be rockin', lol...  There's always the token storm on the models for president's day. 

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From my Facebook page re: the clipper and Fri night:

 

http://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow

 

 

5pm Update - 

There are 2 things to watch. One is late Wednesday night (probably after midnight). A clipper without a lot of moisture will pass over or near DC metro. In a very cold air mass you don't need a lot of moisture to get accumulating snow. Ratios are higher than normal and anything will stick to all surfaces immediately. My current low confidence percentages for this event for immediate DC metro are as follows:

No snow - 50%
Flurries/Very light snow - No more than a coating/dusting up to <1/2"- 30%
1/2"+ - 20%

Friday's event has trended toward the drier scenario I described yesterday. The storm looks like it may be too disorganized to really sock us. So a lot of moisture gets washed out over the mountains. There is still 72 hours until the event, so things will change. It looks like a late Friday afternoon into evening event and a very quick mover. Low confidence probabilities below:

No Snow - 25%
Light snow - Dusting to <1" - 30%
Light to moderate snow - 1-2" - 30%
Moderate snowfall - 2-4"+ - 15%
 
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becoming apparent that the first clipper has gotten so strong it's messing things up for the trailing one

shot me, but not in the head; somewhere where it really, really, hurts

 

mitch, I think it has more to do with the overall weakness of the sw coming into the pac nw. It just doesn't have any oomph. Not enough spin with it to turn the ul flow sw out in front. If it was stronger it would look much different out in front of it. At the very least we would go back to the early runs that showed a ns surface low in the mw passing to our n-w. The nice part of that setup was a simple slug of waa before it shut off.

 

Now that it's not robust at all, no ns surface low really gets organized and there is practically no interaction to the south of it. It's just a big area of washed out crap that spits pity flakes compared to the earlier solutions. 

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