grhqofb5 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Interesting read. I was wondering, as far as forecasting this one (or for that matter, any storm), isn't it fair to say that the models provide the prediction? So if a model is being used as the basis for predicting something that is not actually in the model, should we leave that to the model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Surely this hasn't stopped trending. The question is, what will it trend to? I mean, I can't really see this being static for the next 66 hours. So, what does it become? I think the trend is set -- continues drier and drier. i hope I am wrong, but think we will do good to get 1-2" from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So all of our hope rests in the GGEM now. God help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 who cares about out there, the clipper looks better. If you just like seeing flakes and don't care about accumulations, it's looking pretty spiffy. Are you going to be up at 1am on a school night to watch them in the street light? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hello Mt. Holly briefing: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmac Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hello Mt. Holly briefing: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf .25 and .75 are pretty far apart, esp considering the ratios that could be possible.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 looks like the gfs snow hole is a little smaller this time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Think 0z could bring it back slightly, 18z was a bit better at h5, thought it wanted to do more with the S stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 looks a hair better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 4 gfs runs in a row showing nearly the same thing. All other meaningful guidance moving in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 18Z is slightly better... Hopefully this is a trend back in a better direction. Also tomorrow night could be an inch with the sudden clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 4 gfs runs in a row showing nearly the same thing. All other meaningful guidance moving in that direction. no worries.. early feb will be rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 I thought we said that about late December, and mid-January, and now late-January... When will the pushback of the time for actual snow end?!? no worries.. early feb will be rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I thought we said that about late December, and mid-January, and now late-January... When will the pushback of the time for actual snow end?!? fortunately we usually start to run into a wall after mid feb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 How is 18z better? I think it's identical to even worse with the ns vort that 12z. Flow in front is the same or worse. If you're looking for a trend, 18z didn't start one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 That doesn't inspire much hope fortunately we usually start to run into a wall after mid feb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 gfs gives me more from the clipper than the friday event wow. what a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 becoming apparent that the first clipper has gotten so strong it's messing things up for the trailing one shot me, but not in the head; somewhere where it really, really, hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 gfs gives me more from the clipper than the friday event wow. what a disaster Wes nailed it. The clipper will be spiffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 How is 18z better? I think it's identical to even worse with the ns vort that 12z. Flow in front is the same or worse. If you're looking for a trend, 18z didn't start one. i was just thinking the vort looked a hair south, but you're right, it's still flat out ahead. basically, it's the same. i still think being 3 days out, things could change...though i don't have the knowledge to say whether it will a good trend or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 OK, this is soo outrageously bad, I can't believe it LWX has a 70% chance of snow and sleet for me on Friday....Sleet!!! are they out of their minds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 OK, this is soo outrageously bad, I can't believe it LWX has a 70% chance of snow and sleet for me on Friday....Sleet!!! are they out of their minds? They'tr accounting for your tears mitch. It will be cold enough for them to freeze before they hit the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i was just thinking the vort looked a hair south, but you're right, it's still flat out ahead. basically, it's the same. i still think being 3 days out, things could change...though i don't have the knowledge to say whether it will a good trend or not. I don't see it changing much. But come on guys, possible dusting to an inch Wednesday night, then another 1-3 inches on Friday. Anybody close to DC complaining about this week should take a close look back at what we have received so far this winter. 1 inch and then 1-3 is not too shabby for DC proper, yeah I know you guys north and west have had some decent storms. And as Ian said, February will be rockin', lol... There's always the token storm on the models for president's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 From my Facebook page re: the clipper and Fri night: http://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow 5pm Update - There are 2 things to watch. One is late Wednesday night (probably after midnight). A clipper without a lot of moisture will pass over or near DC metro. In a very cold air mass you don't need a lot of moisture to get accumulating snow. Ratios are higher than normal and anything will stick to all surfaces immediately. My current low confidence percentages for this event for immediate DC metro are as follows:No snow - 50%Flurries/Very light snow - No more than a coating/dusting up to <1/2"- 30%1/2"+ - 20%Friday's event has trended toward the drier scenario I described yesterday. The storm looks like it may be too disorganized to really sock us. So a lot of moisture gets washed out over the mountains. There is still 72 hours until the event, so things will change. It looks like a late Friday afternoon into evening event and a very quick mover. Low confidence probabilities below:No Snow - 25%Light snow - Dusting to <1" - 30%Light to moderate snow - 1-2" - 30%Moderate snowfall - 2-4"+ - 15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hello Mt. Holly briefing: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf .25 and .75 are pretty far apart, esp considering the ratios that could be possible.. lol That .25-.75 was for their entire area though. Still put DC area in the .5-.75 zone, bullish or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That .25-.75 was for their entire area though. Still put DC area in the .5-.75 zone, bullish or not. Pretty sure that map was made at 10am this morning........ a lot has changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 becoming apparent that the first clipper has gotten so strong it's messing things up for the trailing one shot me, but not in the head; somewhere where it really, really, hurts Maybe the clipper will continue to drop further south to give us a 3 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 That .25-.75 was for their entire area though. Still put DC area in the .5-.75 zone, bullish or not. Pretty sure that map was made at 10am this morning........ a lot has changed Then why include it in their 3pm briefing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wow, 18z pulls the plug down here on Friday now-- to close to a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 becoming apparent that the first clipper has gotten so strong it's messing things up for the trailing one shot me, but not in the head; somewhere where it really, really, hurts mitch, I think it has more to do with the overall weakness of the sw coming into the pac nw. It just doesn't have any oomph. Not enough spin with it to turn the ul flow sw out in front. If it was stronger it would look much different out in front of it. At the very least we would go back to the early runs that showed a ns surface low in the mw passing to our n-w. The nice part of that setup was a simple slug of waa before it shut off. Now that it's not robust at all, no ns surface low really gets organized and there is practically no interaction to the south of it. It's just a big area of washed out crap that spits pity flakes compared to the earlier solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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