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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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It's Tuesday.  Not Friday.  We will see even more change, IMO.  Now whether that change goes our way or the other, I won't speculate.  Now that we have seemingly hit the bottom, maybe we can get away from the whiny bickering and get back to talking about the storm.  Like the fact that the very crucial piece of energy is still sitting well off the US coast and might not be just what the models are thinking it will be by the time it gets across the Rockies.

 

It also might be time to regroup and close this thread.  I'm a believer in the mojo, and this thread has a bad one.

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1-3 / 2-4 was being heralded by the masses as the greatest thing since a grilled cheese cooked in butter just a couple days ago... lol

 

There is time anyways. Sure it could go either way but I doubt the dried up prune solution of the gfs is right. Some things can help. Let's get past the weak clipper tomorrow and see how 500 and the strength of the sw looks. Just a couple miles and mb's can make a world of diff. 

 

Hey Bob, I copyrighted that one.  :icecream:

 

But I agree.  The view may change indeed in about 36 hours.

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It's Tuesday.  Not Friday.  We will see even more change, IMO.  Now whether that change goes our way or the other, I won't speculate.  Now that we have seemingly hit the bottom, maybe we can get away from the whiny bickering and get back to talking about the storm.  Like the fact that the very crucial piece of energy is still sitting well off the US coast and might not be just what the models are thinking it will be by the time it gets across the Rockies.

 

It also might be time to regroup and close this thread.  I'm a believer in the mojo, and this thread has a bad one.

Second your post, good points. Can't go much lower (mentally), as we could go to 0 but I doubt that outcome.

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I blame it on TWC for using the words "Potential for significant snow accumulation".

I blame it on our location on this planet, and the new found climo we are developing. Phineas warm/wet, cold/dry. But hey, I might as well ride this one to the end, anything can happen. .2" of QPF will do, would be 2-4", and we've been dying for that. Anything more, and I'd be in heaven. 

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FWIW...

 

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EST TUE 22 JANUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JANUARY 2013
         WSPOD NUMBER.....12-053

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARK: TODAY'S NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR TRACK P-46 WILL
       NOW BE FLOWN CLOCKWISE WITH A 22/1900Z TAKEOFF TIME AND 
       CONTROL POINT SET AT DROP POINT 8 FOR 23/0000Z.

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Does the Euro throw out an .01 or .02 amounts in our area with the clipper?  The vort looks pretty impressive. 

 

I was just thinking: man, that is some strong differential vorticity. The jet placement, mid level moisture, cyclonic vorticity advection argue for possibly something a bit further north than C VA too after 3z THU. The SREF guidance also has reasonable probabilities on MPV anomalies coming across MD / DCA 3-9z.

 

Embedded small snow squalls amongst the cloud deck / scattered flurries? Max SREF members spit out over 1" of snow but that's for fun right now.

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The axis of the shortwave entry on the Euro is pretty similar, but then the tilting of the s/w takes on literally a 360 compared to 0z. It has better heights in front, but this run the heights in the east are low, flatness... Additionally, there isn't much of a mechanism to draw in open moisture transport from the gulf into the supposed low that will traverse the Mississippi River Valley. 

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Well a south shift would at least for a day stop people from using the old they always shift north card. 

 

im not even going to pay attention to it anymore. im all about the wed night clipper.

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