swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 18z is a tick south of 12z.....it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 At 90 the low is in Kentucky, doesn't look that far south me. Yeah, I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 it's uber wet....i like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Just south of 12z, not bad. Nice snow, doubt any rain. Colder at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 it's uber wet....i like it Oh that jokes that could be made...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 it's uber wet....i like it eyeballing 0.75-0.85 from DCA - BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 And I thought people were saying that I jinxed the storm at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Just south of 12z, not bad. Nice snow, doubt any rain. Colder at 850. it's all frozen...just the difference between 6-8" of snow and 3" of snow followed by sleet and ZR..I'd honestly take any solution that is wet...my biggest fear by far is dryslotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 18Z NAM takes the low much stronger and further north, and has the whole East Coast much warmer than the 18S GFS does at the same point in time. who cares...it is garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 eyeballing 0.75-0.85 from DCA - BWI Yup, looks like DC is near 0.75. I'd like to see the Low track a little further south but I like a where we're at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Accidentally submitted on my phone, meant to change my post to what it says now. who cares...it is garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I like where we stand as well, verbatim that is, about 6-7" of snow, SV maps 4-8 DC and Baltimore at hr 99. Would be some snow and sleet, better than 18z, and juiced, I agree with matt. All frozen event for sure, sfc temps are colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 who cares...it is garbage I will give you credit you are one of the few here no matter what it shows, you always tell us the NAM sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yup, looks like DC is near 0.75. I'd like to see the Low track a little further south but I like a where we're at. eyeballing, it is probably 80% snow before it mixes...I love that it is wet...4-5" plus ice and sleet....love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I like where we stand as well, verbatim that is, about 6-7" of snow, SV maps 4-8 DC and Baltimore at hr 99. Would be some snow and sleet, better than 18z, and juiced, I agree with matt. All frozen event for sure, sfc temps are colder. it is like 23-26 most of the storm I think...need soundings....DCA goes to like 34 well after the precip ends and then drops again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 eyeballing 0.75-0.85 from DCA - BWI Both it and the Euro would be winter storm warning criteria storms across the area for different reasons if they were correct. It did trend a little colder and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 actually, it didn't. It was the 1st model to forecast the watch criteria storm while the euro had zilch. Later, it jumped south while the Eruo still had little. Only in the last 12 hours did it win when the euro somehow decided to go wet. H20 was being sarcastic. I was just joining in. I know it did awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Might be too early to discuss dry slotting, but it looks like the GFS and CMC both show a pronounced one here in the VA Piedmont. Hopefully that verifies further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 at BWI 18z GFS, .38" falls through 1pm with surface at -3.5 and 850 at -5.3 but thickness is at 541 so there's a warming layer likely above 850 at the end of the next 6 hours, another .38" has fallen, surface at -.2 and 850 at +.4 with thickness of 540 better than 12Z and probably 3-4" before taint of sleet hits even less zr this run I would think too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 it is like 23-26 most of the storm I think...need soundings....DCA goes to like 34 well after the precip ends and then drops again I think the precip is over by the time the temps get above freezing. I'd be a little conservative with the snow totals compared to the 850 temps as there will be a warmer layer above 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 it's uber wet....i like it This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Solid .25-.5 QPF as all snow at hour 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 at BWI 18z GFS, .38" falls through 1pm with surface at -3.5 and 850 at -5.3 but thickness is at 541 so there's a warming layer likely above 850 at the end of the next 6 hours, another .38" has fallen, surface at -.2 and 850 at +.4 better than 12Z and probably 3-4" before taint of sleet hits even less zr this run I would think too Would think 4-6" event Baltimore city this run, and of course only for posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think the precip is over by the time the temps get above freezing. I'd be a little conservative with the snow totals compared to the 850 temps as there will be a warmer layer above 850. yeah...I am curious when we change to sleet...not that the details matter this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This is showing the trend from the 12z run........kinda cool. GFS minus prev. run FORECAST FOR: DCA LAT= 38.85 LON= -77.03 ELE= 16 18Z JAN21 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 18Z 21-JAN 0.3 -0.5 0 4 2 0 0 TUE 00Z 22-JAN 0.1 -0.1 0 5 0 0.00 0 0 TUE 06Z 22-JAN 0.2 0.1 0 2 1 0.00 0 0 TUE 12Z 22-JAN 0.2 0.2 0 -1 3 0.00 1 1 TUE 18Z 22-JAN 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0.00 0 0 WED 00Z 23-JAN 0.0 -0.1 0 2 1 0.00 0 0 WED 06Z 23-JAN -0.1 0.0 1 3 -2 0.00 1 0 WED 12Z 23-JAN -0.1 0.1 1 3 -14 0.00 2 1 WED 18Z 23-JAN 0.3 0.5 0 1 27 0.00 2 2 THU 00Z 24-JAN 0.6 0.6 -1 3 0 0.00 1 2 THU 06Z 24-JAN 0.3 1.8 -2 32 4 0.01 4 5 THU 12Z 24-JAN 0.6 0.9 -2 24 7 0.01 2 3 THU 18Z 24-JAN 0.1 0.2 -2 6 0 0.00 -1 0 FRI 00Z 25-JAN -0.1 -0.3 -1 2 0 0.00 -1 0 FRI 06Z 25-JAN -0.2 -1.0 0 1 -3 0.00 -1 -1 FRI 12Z 25-JAN 0.5 -1.4 0 1 -4 0.00 -1 -1 FRI 18Z 25-JAN -0.5 0.0 -1 9 0 0.16 -1 -1 SAT 00Z 26-JAN -0.8 -1.3 -2 0 -6 0.09 -4 -2 SAT 06Z 26-JAN -4.0 -1.3 1 0 2 -0.03 -2 -2 SAT 12Z 26-JAN 0.2 -1.1 0 2 -8 0.00 -1 -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Storm now 93-96 hours out according to the GFS, getting inside 4 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 18Z (zoomed) Clown snow map, just for entertainment purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The drive to Deep Creek on Friday morning/afternoon looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 850's an issue on this run? GFS 1 Degree FORECAST FOR: DCA LAT= 38.85 LON= -77.03 ELE= 16 18Z JAN21 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ © © THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) MON 18Z 21-JAN 4.9 -5.8 129 1489 16007 0.00 TUE 00Z 22-JAN 2.2 -7.1 129 1312 31014 SN 0.01 0.00 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -4.0 -16.5 125 0 29013 0.00 0.00 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -7.4 -20.6 123 0 29014 0.00 0.00 TUE 18Z 22-JAN -5.4 -20.2 123 0 29015 0.00 0.00 WED 00Z 23-JAN -6.9 -20.0 123 0 30010 0.00 0.00 WED 06Z 23-JAN -8.8 -20.5 122 0 29008 0.00 0.00 WED 12Z 23-JAN -9.8 -19.5 123 0 27007 0.00 0.00 WED 18Z 23-JAN -4.5 -18.5 124 0 28010 0.00 0.00 THU 00Z 24-JAN -4.4 -15.1 125 0 29003 0.00 0.00 THU 06Z 24-JAN -5.4 -14.9 125 0 32002 SN 0.01 0.00 THU 12Z 24-JAN -7.5 -17.1 124 0 31006 SN 0.01 0.03 THU 18Z 24-JAN -3.2 -18.1 124 0 34010 0.00 0.00 FRI 00Z 25-JAN -5.7 -16.8 125 0 35003 0.00 0.00 FRI 06Z 25-JAN -5.9 -12.9 125 0 14004 0.00 0.00 FRI 12Z 25-JAN -5.0 -6.1 126 0 15009 0.00 0.00 FRI 18Z 25-JAN -3.9 -2.4 127 6794 19014 SN 0.31 0.33 SAT 00Z 26-JAN 0.0 1.3 131 5456 23012 ZR 0.31 0.57 SAT 06Z 26-JAN -5.2 -7.3 127 0 30011 0.00 0.57 SAT 12Z 26-JAN -8.3 -12.3 125 0 31011 0.00 0.57 SAT 18Z 26-JAN -3.1 -13.8 125 0 31012 0.00 0.55 SUN 00Z 27-JAN -5.9 -13.4 126 0 28008 0.00 0.55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This is our antecedent air mass....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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