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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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I incorporate more than just model QPF output when viewing a threat...the euro was a mix of good and suspect news....and that suspicion has come to fruition on the GFS....If you just want to take QPF verbatim on the most favorable model, that is your prerogative....I have a lot of experience with these set ups

We all have experienced a plethora of set-ups, and your worry is not my worry. 

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I incorporate more than just model QPF output when viewing a threat...the euro was a mix of good and suspect news....and that suspicion has come to fruition on the GFS....If you just want to take QPF verbatim on the most favorable model, that is your prerogative....I have a lot of experience with these set ups

I would love to hear your weenie fears about the EURO's suspect things turning out on the GFS considering the 2 are night and day as you pointed out last night......you need to relax there are a few of you that seem so out of touch with reality it isnt funny.....you make the ride and excitement of watching the models dull and boring......all last week I got 4-8 from the GFS and you know what I received 3 and barely that TAKE A CHILL PILL 

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We all have experienced a plethora of set-ups, and your worry is not my worry. 

 

Are you sure you are seeing what he is saying? I think what he is trying to point out to you is that you seem to only be looking at the end QPF and deciding that it looks "good" - He sees that the Euro has some factors that could easily make it be closer to the GFS. QPF is not everything. I might be interpreting him wrong, though. 

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this is the way I look at it

Euro, CMC and Ukie never showed us getting hit by the u/l system; yeah the Euro cr@pped the bed last minutes, but otherwise they all said nothing and they were right

now, all three say mod/heavy event for us

the GFS has given us snow in this time range way too many times and has been wrong way more than right, so the fact that it shows very little doesn't really upset me

it's legit to be skeptical (or paranoid-schizophrenic like JI) if you want, but this "looks" like the kind of model agreement in this time range we usually need to get snow around

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I would love to hear your weenie fears about the EURO's suspect things turning out on the GFS considering the 2 are night and day as you pointed out last night......you need to relax there are a few of you that seem so out of touch with reality it isnt funny.....you make the ride and excitement of watching the models dull and boring......all last week I got 4-8 from the GFS and you know what I received 3 and barely that TAKE A CHILL PILL 

Wow....unwarranted? 

Zwyts has a lot of experience and I respect his opinions...when he sees something potentially suspect, it is wise to pay attention. Sure a little weenie--ing is fine...but don't trash talk somebody just because they don't want to buy into the weenie craze 120%. No need to be rude...

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This is more banter than anything, but I like where we're at.  GFS shows dusting to an inch, NAM shows a solid 3-6, EURO shows solid 3-6, Ukie seems to be good, and canadian shows 3-6ish.  Seems like chances are we get to see some flakes and white ground, and it won't melt immediately.  

Considering that its now just lunch time on Tuesday, I wouldn't say the chances are good at all. Sure, the models (and lol at folks getting caught up in QPF at this time. It's not exactly the most reliable output....) indicate things could get interesting around here at the end of the week, but I'd give it til Thursday morning. People that follow every single model run of every major model are destined for the whacky house.

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We all have experienced a plethora of set-ups, and your worry is not my worry. 

 

 

I would love to hear your weenie fears about the EURO's suspect things turning out on the GFS considering the 2 are night and day as you pointed out last night......you need to relax there are a few of you that seem so out of touch with reality it isnt funny.....you make the ride and excitement of watching the models dull and boring......all last week I got 4-8 from the GFS and you know what I received 3 and barely that TAKE A CHILL PILL 

 

This is a weather discussion...there is more to discussion than model output from the best model.....the GFS is a realistic possibility...doesnt mean it will happen....but it validates for now our worst fears from the last few days....maybe you guys should start a model hugging board where you can take the best model and just tell us the QPF...and we can discuss science and climatology here

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Wow....unwarranted? 

Zwyts has a lot of experience and I respect his opinions...when he sees something potentially suspect, it is wise to pay attention. Sure a little weenie--ing is fine...but don't trash talk somebody just because they don't want to buy into the weenie craze 120%. No need to be rude..

 

This is a weather discussion...there is more to discussion than model output from the best model.....the GFS is a realistic possibility...doesnt mean it will happen....but it validates for now our worst fears from the last few days....maybe you guys should start a model hugging board where you can take the best model and just tell us the QPF...and we can discuss science and climatology here

diddnt you say on facebook I am not gonna jump around from model run to model run....what are you doing?

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This is a weather discussion...there is more to discussion than model output from the best model.....the GFS is a realistic possibility...doesnt mean it will happen....but it validates for now our worst fears from the last few days....maybe you guys should start a model hugging board where you can take the best model and just tell us the QPF...and we can discuss science and climatology here

I think this brings up an interesting discussion for another thread...

I don't understand how Wes is hailed as a hero by everyone despite his weenie crushing at times (Wes, this is nothing against you I LOVE your write ups). But at the same time, when you have similar views you get completely trash talked. I for one respect your opinions as they often pan out (or at the very least keep our expectations in check). 

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I think this brings up an interesting discussion for another thread...

I don't understand how Wes is hailed as a hero by everyone despite his weenie crushing at times (Wes, this is nothing against you I LOVE your write ups). But at the same time, when you (Matt) have similar views you get completely trash talked. I for one respect your opinions as they often pan out (or at the very least keep our expectations in check). 

His fear from the EURO last night was a Miller B that transfered too close to comfort for you guys and got SNE......

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Wow....unwarranted? 

Zwyts has a lot of experience and I respect his opinions...when he sees something potentially suspect, it is wise to pay attention. Sure a little weenie--ing is fine...but don't trash talk somebody just because they don't want to buy into the weenie craze 120%. No need to be rude..

 

This is a weather discussion...there is more to discussion than model output from the best model.....the GFS is a realistic possibility...doesnt mean it will happen....but it validates for now our worst fears from the last few days....maybe you guys should start a model hugging board where you can take the best model and just tell us the QPF...and we can discuss science and climatology here

diddnt you say on facebook I am not gonna jump around from model run to model run....what are you doing?

 

They are 2 different formats....social media and a message board arent the same thing....the models, even the euro, should give us some pause....I am still optimistic for a small to moderate snow event, but my expectations are tempered....the GFS isn't some wacky solution...it shows what many of us have worried about for 3 days now....and any time you see a model dump a lot of QPF in a short duration there is a lot of reason to be skeptical....we don't get many storms at all with a high QPF punch from the west, especially with poor UL and sfc reflection...If you wanna circle jerk to the best models be my guest...I am keeping an open mind now with warranted doubt thrown in....

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His fear from the EURO last night was a Miller B that transfered too close to comfort for you guys and got SNE......

 

What point are you trying to make? I don't see how that wasn't a reasonable suspicion from the model output. Sure it showed a "good" solution for us...but what he was saying is that it would not take much to cause some heartache for us. You are telling him to take a chill pill when you are the one flipping out on him...He's just stating his opinions on model output. Wes does the same thing and you do not give him this kind of treatment. 

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I still don't see what the fuss is all about? Is it because the gfs doesn't show 4-8" area wide? That's what it seems like. 

 

The envelope of solutions hasn't changed much for days. There is oscillation between more amped and wet vs the opposite. Both of which are 100% on the table attm. 

 

Resolving the sw hitting the pac coast and dropping into the midwest is always full of problems. It's a ns system. When has a ns system ever been locked in days in advance for an ec threat? They are never handled well. Ever. 

 

The only safe play imo is to split the difference and not focus and argue on any outlier. We've discussed this threat in detail. Having the vort not dig enough and the slp track over or nw of us and we get a good thump of waa precip only. Having the vort all messy with no amplification and we get a dry solution like the gfs. Have everything amplify a little and get a favorable vort and slp pass and we maximize. They are ALL possible attm. 

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I would love to hear your weenie fears about the EURO's suspect things turning out on the GFS considering the 2 are night and day as you pointed out last night......you need to relax there are a few of you that seem so out of touch with reality it isnt funny.....you make the ride and excitement of watching the models dull and boring......all last week I got 4-8 from the GFS and you know what I received 3 and barely that TAKE A CHILL PILL 

I'll take the wisdom of a post by Matt over 99% of non mets any day. Matt is one of the most knowledgable DCers here.

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I'll take the wisdom of a post by Matt over 99% of non mets any day. Matt is one of the most knowledgable DCers here.

 

This. You have to be a fool to not at least consider what he is saying, let alone bash it.

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I still don't see what the fuss is all about? Is it because the gfs doesn't show 4-8" area wide? That's what it seems like. 

 

The envelope of solutions hasn't changed much for days. There is oscillation between more amped and wet vs the opposite. Both of which are 100% on the table attm. 

 

Resolving the sw hitting the pac coast and dropping into the midwest is always full of problems. It's a ns system. When has a ns system ever been locked in days in advance for an ec threat? They are never handled well. Ever. 

 

The only safe play imo is to split the difference and not focus and argue on any outlier. We've discussed this threat in detail. Having the vort not dig enough and the slp track over or nw of us and we get a good thump of waa precip only. Having the vort all messy with no amplification and we get a dry solution like the gfs. Have everything amplify a little and get a favorable vort and slp pass and we maximize. They are ALL possible attm. 

 

yea i think we need that pac coast system to dig a little further south than the gfs is showing.  that's what i'm seeing, at least.  seems to be what's making the difference between the models right now.

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I value his opinion dont get me wrong but I feel here lately he has been over the top....meltdown last week and just his negativity in general......

That was a meltdown? I must have missed something. 

You might want to consider that you now have multiple red taggers saying you should value his opinion. Again, he pointed out something that is a legit concern with this storm. If you want him to put on weenie goggles he'll bust his forecast much more frequently. 

 

I just think telling him to take a chill pill was a little much...

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