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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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I would agree any other winter, but it seems this winter has been an exception to the rule. Most years the euro rules the roost, but in this cockeyed year, anytime the GFS has gone out on its own its ended up winning out. 

 

I keep hearing this but is this just selective memory? Not a stab at you..... just wondering.

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Many of us here have been concerned about lack of precip the whole time.

 

I think what's putting us on edge is that we want a definitive answer and we just aren't going to get one 72 hours ahead.  I think you put your money on your cards, and right now the cards don't favor the GFS as it seems to be standing on its own.

 

For the time being, the best bet is to take a GFS-EURO compromise and hope the ECMWF continues to remain steady so you know how to hedge this afternoon. The GFS could simply be handling the s/w incorrectly and making it too diffuse.

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The easiest thing to watch is the orientation of the 5h flow in front of the vort as it digs into the mw. All we need is a more sw-ne orientation and we're right back to the wetter runs. It's well within the envelope of expectations even if we don't like what we see right now. I'm not freaking out but I also never bought into the .50-1" totals either. 

 

yea i buy more into high ratios than high qpf at this point.  it's definitely frigid outside.  i can't imagine this leaving soon.

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why the "but"?

I'll take a quick 4-6" and call it a huge victory in light of the last 3 winter (including this one so far)

 

I just see that as highly unlikely that's all. Getting that kind of surface track will require a heck of a lot more amplification @ 500 than the gfs and maybe even the euro (i didn't look to close at the 0z euro so maybe it's the same). 

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why the "but"?

I'll take a quick 4-6" and call it a huge victory in light of the last 3 winter (including this one so far)

 

I'll take 1-2" and hope for the best in FEB...these are just model runs...they dont mean anything....if we end up with 1-2" then the potential for bigger was really never there in the 1st place

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NAM and GGEM vs GFS dosent exactly inspire confidence in me

lead time is too long on these things....we need to start paying attention 72 hours out. Lessens the pain somewhat. My expectations are low...but I really do hope we see something accumulate in this cold air before we warm up to the 60's next week

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Doesn't matter to me, because you were complaining about the euro last night. Sure it has screw potential, but if the GFS is a different screw, so thats why I think that was not really necessary. 

 

I incorporate more than just model QPF output when viewing a threat...the euro was a mix of good and suspect news....and that suspicion has come to fruition on the GFS....If you just want to take QPF verbatim on the most favorable model, that is your prerogative....I have a lot of experience with these set ups

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