swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I would agree any other winter, but it seems this winter has been an exception to the rule. Most years the euro rules the roost, but in this cockeyed year, anytime the GFS has gone out on its own its ended up winning out. I keep hearing this but is this just selective memory? Not a stab at you..... just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Many of us here have been concerned about lack of precip the whole time. I think what's putting us on edge is that we want a definitive answer and we just aren't going to get one 72 hours ahead. I think you put your money on your cards, and right now the cards don't favor the GFS as it seems to be standing on its own. For the time being, the best bet is to take a GFS-EURO compromise and hope the ECMWF continues to remain steady so you know how to hedge this afternoon. The GFS could simply be handling the s/w incorrectly and making it too diffuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 dry wont be an issue for the jan 30-31 storm. Only problem is it will be about 80 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The easiest thing to watch is the orientation of the 5h flow in front of the vort as it digs into the mw. All we need is a more sw-ne orientation and we're right back to the wetter runs. It's well within the envelope of expectations even if we don't like what we see right now. I'm not freaking out but I also never bought into the .50-1" totals either. yea i buy more into high ratios than high qpf at this point. it's definitely frigid outside. i can't imagine this leaving soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 FWIW, Canadian is a pretty good hit Looks like it on the SLP maps... 1008 L in E TN at 78 -- 1007 L in C NC at 84 -- 1000 L offshore of ACY by about 150 to 200 miles or so at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 CMC NAMish http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 CMC NAMish http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Like the odds on a 4-7" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z GGEM looks alot like the EURO now. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=078&fixhh=1&hh=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 if the euro holds at 12z...then we have 2 GFS runs to try to correct the bs before we panic again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GEM screws 40N so we like according to matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 mitch, cmc runs a surface low basically due east from ar-tn-nc and off the coast...it looks good and all but...heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GEM screws 40N so we like according to matt. We want the models as vindictive towards NE as possible in order to win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 if the euro holds at 12z...then we have 2 GFS runs to try to correct the bs before we you panic again. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS ENS mean supports the OP...super dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 mitch, cmc runs a surface low basically due east from ar-tn-nc and off the coast...it looks good and all but...heh... why the "but"? I'll take a quick 4-6" and call it a huge victory in light of the last 3 winter (including this one so far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 With some really rough estimating (hard on the small map), the GEM shows around 10 mm which is about 0.4 inches. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 With some really rough estimating (hard on the small map), the GEM shows around 10 mm which is about 0.4 inches. Not bad. looked like a tad more than that to me, but it doesn't really matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 looked like a tad more than that to me, but it doesn't really matter Yeah, hard to tell. Either way it's pretty similar to the NAM. If I could lock that in right now I'd do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not exactly sure how it gets there since UKIE goes 72 to 96 and precip panels stop at 72... but UKIE goes from a 1006 L in Arkansas at 72 to a 996 L at 96 just off (like 50 miles or so) C NJ coast. I wish we had an 84 SLP panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 why the "but"? I'll take a quick 4-6" and call it a huge victory in light of the last 3 winter (including this one so far) I just see that as highly unlikely that's all. Getting that kind of surface track will require a heck of a lot more amplification @ 500 than the gfs and maybe even the euro (i didn't look to close at the 0z euro so maybe it's the same). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i think best case now is a 2-4 inch event. Worst case--is what we normally get which is nothing. lets see what 12z euro says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 why the "but"? I'll take a quick 4-6" and call it a huge victory in light of the last 3 winter (including this one so far) I'll take 1-2" and hope for the best in FEB...these are just model runs...they dont mean anything....if we end up with 1-2" then the potential for bigger was really never there in the 1st place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i think best case now is a 2-4 inch event. Worst case--is what we normally get which is nothing. lets see what 12z euro says. Ok even if you could be right, stop posting. Every post its something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ok even if you could be right, stop posting. Every post its something different. he's right...there is no reason to be too optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ok even if you could be right, stop posting. Every post its something different. Probably no worse than repeated posts stating that you're getting .8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM and GGEM vs GFS dosent exactly inspire confidence in me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM and GGEM vs GFS dosent exactly inspire confidence in me lead time is too long on these things....we need to start paying attention 72 hours out. Lessens the pain somewhat. My expectations are low...but I really do hope we see something accumulate in this cold air before we warm up to the 60's next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 he's right...there is no reason to be too optimistic Doesn't matter to me, because you were complaining about the euro last night. Sure it has screw potential, but if the GFS is a different screw, so thats why I think that was not really necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is more banter than anything, but I like where we're at. GFS shows dusting to an inch, NAM shows a solid 3-6, EURO shows solid 3-6, Ukie seems to be good, and canadian shows 3-6ish. Seems like chances are we get to see some flakes and white ground, and it won't melt immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Doesn't matter to me, because you were complaining about the euro last night. Sure it has screw potential, but if the GFS is a different screw, so thats why I think that was not really necessary. I incorporate more than just model QPF output when viewing a threat...the euro was a mix of good and suspect news....and that suspicion has come to fruition on the GFS....If you just want to take QPF verbatim on the most favorable model, that is your prerogative....I have a lot of experience with these set ups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.