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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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GFS being right, wrong, or otherwise is irrelevant.  There's not a person here who isn't concerned about its last three runs.  I keep telling myself that there are 72 hours to go, lots can and probably will happen, and that Jan 30, 2010 pulled the rug out from under us a couple of days prior to the storm.  I don't know if this even matches up well with that storm, but it is a good reminder that we don't necessarily have the whole picture 72 hours out.

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You can easily see what the gfs is thinking. 18z (left) from last night and 12z (right) from today @ same point in time:

 

 

 

GFS is simply backing off on the amplification. Without it we don't get a surface low or waa precip. I started getting worried when I saw 2 runs with flatter flow out in front and now were up to 3 runs. 

 

That should be the prime focus on the euro. Does it stay amplified @ 500. If 12z comes out flat then the trend sucks. 

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GFS being right, wrong, or otherwise is irrelevant.  There's not a person here who isn't concerned about its last three runs.  I keep telling myself that there are 72 hours to go, lots can and probably will happen, and that Jan 30, 2010 pulled the rug out from under us a couple of days prior to the storm.  I don't know if this even matches up well with that storm, but it is a good reminder that we don't necessarily have the whole picture 72 hours out.

Yes, but that storm also was way different, and it gave me 6-7 inches here, which was a nice north trend surprise. 

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Ukie has a pretty amped low heading toward the OV then looks like it will attempt the quasi mb jump to the coast...... pretty similar to the Euro I'd say

sure is

look at 700mb RH and wind streamline link below

when I saw that Ukie map I almost passed out

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest

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UKIE also has the storm with a decent tap of GOMEX moisture,

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UK looks way better than GFS. My crap this morning looks better than the GFS

 

I miss the old days when everyone from the MA to the NE posted in the same storm thread (although I wouldn't go back to that...too crazy) and I would get to see a post like this in between a couple of met analysis posts and model analysis posts. Keep expectations low and hope for the best. Your concerns of precip being brief are a good call.

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GFS could be easily be right. But it's also on it's own for now. This is the year of subtlety. Little things mean a lot. Nothing is going to come easy. And we should take what we can get. 

 

I never get a warm and fuzzy when non-euro foreign models start dominating the thread after a crappy US global run...

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I miss the old days when everyone from the MA to the NE posted in the same storm thread (although I wouldn't go back to that...too crazy) and I would get to see a post like this in between a couple of met analysis posts and model analysis posts. Keep expectations low and hope for the best. Your concerns of precip being brief are a good call.

 

Many of us here have been concerned about lack of precip the whole time.

 

I think what's putting us on edge is that we want a definitive answer and we just aren't going to get one 72 hours ahead.  I think you put your money on your cards, and right now the cards don't favor the GFS as it seems to be standing on its own.

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Many of us here have been concerned about lack of precip the whole time.

 

I think what's putting us on edge is that we want a definitive answer and we just aren't going to get one 72 hours ahead.  I think you put your money on your cards, and right now the cards don't favor the GFS as it seems to be standing on its own.

 

I would agree any other winter, but it seems this winter has been an exception to the rule. Most years the euro rules the roost, but in this cockeyed year, anytime the GFS has gone out on its own its ended up winning out. 

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You can easily see what the gfs is thinking. 18z (left) from last night and 12z (right) from today @ same point in time:

 

attachicon.gif18z - 12zgfs500.JPG

 

 

GFS is simply backing off on the amplification. Without it we don't get a surface low or waa precip. I started getting worried when I saw 2 runs with flatter flow out in front and now were up to 3 runs. 

 

That should be the prime focus on the euro. Does it stay amplified @ 500. If 12z comes out flat then the trend sucks. 

 

it doesn't seem like it wouldn't take that much for the gfs to improve.  it's not just a clipper that comes rolling through.  it does tap into the gulf a little bit, so maybe we just need it to get that vort a little further south.  though i agree, 3 runs of being fairly consistent is why we're getting a little antsy.

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it doesn't seem like it wouldn't take that much for the gfs to improve.  it's not just a clipper that comes rolling through.  it does tap into the gulf a little bit, so maybe we just need it to get that vort a little further south.  though i agree, 3 runs of being fairly consistent is why we're getting a little antsy.

 

The easiest thing to watch is the orientation of the 5h flow in front of the vort as it digs into the mw. All we need is a more sw-ne orientation and we're right back to the wetter runs. It's well within the envelope of expectations even if we don't like what we see right now. I'm not freaking out but I also never bought into the .50-1" totals either. 

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The easiest thing to watch is the orientation of the 5h flow in front of the vort as it digs into the mw. All we need is a more sw-ne orientation and we're right back to the wetter runs. It's well within the envelope of expectations even if we don't like what we see right now. I'm not freaking out but I also never bought into the .50-1" totals either. 

I have, .5-.75 at I have, more than that, I don't know about something like that. 

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