WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS being right, wrong, or otherwise is irrelevant. There's not a person here who isn't concerned about its last three runs. I keep telling myself that there are 72 hours to go, lots can and probably will happen, and that Jan 30, 2010 pulled the rug out from under us a couple of days prior to the storm. I don't know if this even matches up well with that storm, but it is a good reminder that we don't necessarily have the whole picture 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You are bi polar, if the Euro was showing this but the GFS was showing the opposite you would say it's over. If it was the opposite i would say its over. yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You can easily see what the gfs is thinking. 18z (left) from last night and 12z (right) from today @ same point in time: GFS is simply backing off on the amplification. Without it we don't get a surface low or waa precip. I started getting worried when I saw 2 runs with flatter flow out in front and now were up to 3 runs. That should be the prime focus on the euro. Does it stay amplified @ 500. If 12z comes out flat then the trend sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS being right, wrong, or otherwise is irrelevant. There's not a person here who isn't concerned about its last three runs. I keep telling myself that there are 72 hours to go, lots can and probably will happen, and that Jan 30, 2010 pulled the rug out from under us a couple of days prior to the storm. I don't know if this even matches up well with that storm, but it is a good reminder that we don't necessarily have the whole picture 72 hours out. Yes, but that storm also was way different, and it gave me 6-7 inches here, which was a nice north trend surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 wailing and nashing of teeth till about 1:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Credit to ORH... what will happen next? 12z UKIE h5 at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If it was the opposite i would say its over. yes. Exactly so let's chill till we see the Euro, if that goes towards the GFS then we are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 atleast you can always count on the canadian to stay amped, if it comes in flat then you know somethings up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Credit to ORH... what will happen next? 12z UKIE h5 at 72 Well, not GFS like anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Exactly so let's chill till we see the Euro, if that goes towards the GFS then we are screwed. We aren't going to be screwed on Tuesday morning. If this were Thursday morning, maybe, but not Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelhousman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it's 100 mi SE of 18z.... Just noticed your signature. I live out in Cameron Station, West End Alexandria on Duke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ukie has a pretty amped low heading toward the OV then looks like it will attempt the quasi mb jump to the coast...... pretty similar to the Euro I'd say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 so frustrating. We cant ever get the stars to align...we should be talking about accumulations now as opposed to are we even getting a storm. There are alot of people who would be crushed if this storm was another bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ukie has a pretty amped low heading toward the OV then looks like it will attempt the quasi mb jump to the coast...... pretty similar to the Euro I'd say Well it has -12 to -14 850s at 72 and here is the surface/precip at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z UKIE would be EUROish extrapolated, if not bigger....We'll know in an hour and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 UKMET a nice hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ukie has a pretty amped low heading toward the OV then looks like it will attempt the quasi mb jump to the coast...... pretty similar to the Euro I'd say sure is look at 700mb RH and wind streamline link below when I saw that Ukie map I almost passed out http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Omaha and Oklahoma sound a lot a like. I can see how the UKMET put the vortmax in the wrong place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 sure is look at 700mb RH and wind streamline link below when I saw that Ukie map I almost passed out http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest UKIE also has the storm with a decent tap of GOMEX moisture, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 UK looks way better than GFS. My crap this morning looks better than the GFS your crap looks better than your posts too just sit in the corner, keep your mouth shut and tremble all you want....but stop whining!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Omaha and Oklahoma sound a lot a like. I can see how the UKMET put the vortmax in the wrong place. I'm really starting to get sick of each and every one of your useless posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 UK looks way better than GFS. My crap this morning looks better than the GFS I miss the old days when everyone from the MA to the NE posted in the same storm thread (although I wouldn't go back to that...too crazy) and I would get to see a post like this in between a couple of met analysis posts and model analysis posts. Keep expectations low and hope for the best. Your concerns of precip being brief are a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS could be easily be right. But it's also on it's own for now. This is the year of subtlety. Little things mean a lot. Nothing is going to come easy. And we should take what we can get. I never get a warm and fuzzy when non-euro foreign models start dominating the thread after a crappy US global run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 UK looks way better than GFS. My crap this morning looks better than the GFS A long and strung out mess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I miss the old days when everyone from the MA to the NE posted in the same storm thread (although I wouldn't go back to that...too crazy) and I would get to see a post like this in between a couple of met analysis posts and model analysis posts. Keep expectations low and hope for the best. Your concerns of precip being brief are a good call. Many of us here have been concerned about lack of precip the whole time. I think what's putting us on edge is that we want a definitive answer and we just aren't going to get one 72 hours ahead. I think you put your money on your cards, and right now the cards don't favor the GFS as it seems to be standing on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Many of us here have been concerned about lack of precip the whole time. I think what's putting us on edge is that we want a definitive answer and we just aren't going to get one 72 hours ahead. I think you put your money on your cards, and right now the cards don't favor the GFS as it seems to be standing on its own. I would agree any other winter, but it seems this winter has been an exception to the rule. Most years the euro rules the roost, but in this cockeyed year, anytime the GFS has gone out on its own its ended up winning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You can easily see what the gfs is thinking. 18z (left) from last night and 12z (right) from today @ same point in time: 18z - 12zgfs500.JPG GFS is simply backing off on the amplification. Without it we don't get a surface low or waa precip. I started getting worried when I saw 2 runs with flatter flow out in front and now were up to 3 runs. That should be the prime focus on the euro. Does it stay amplified @ 500. If 12z comes out flat then the trend sucks. it doesn't seem like it wouldn't take that much for the gfs to improve. it's not just a clipper that comes rolling through. it does tap into the gulf a little bit, so maybe we just need it to get that vort a little further south. though i agree, 3 runs of being fairly consistent is why we're getting a little antsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it doesn't seem like it wouldn't take that much for the gfs to improve. it's not just a clipper that comes rolling through. it does tap into the gulf a little bit, so maybe we just need it to get that vort a little further south. though i agree, 3 runs of being fairly consistent is why we're getting a little antsy. The easiest thing to watch is the orientation of the 5h flow in front of the vort as it digs into the mw. All we need is a more sw-ne orientation and we're right back to the wetter runs. It's well within the envelope of expectations even if we don't like what we see right now. I'm not freaking out but I also never bought into the .50-1" totals either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The easiest thing to watch is the orientation of the 5h flow in front of the vort as it digs into the mw. All we need is a more sw-ne orientation and we're right back to the wetter runs. It's well within the envelope of expectations even if we don't like what we see right now. I'm not freaking out but I also never bought into the .50-1" totals either. I have, .5-.75 at I have, more than that, I don't know about something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 FWIW, Canadian is a pretty good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.