mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 UK looks way better than GFS. My crap this morning looks better than the GFS your crap looks better than your posts too just sit in the corner, keep your mouth shut and tremble all you want....but stop whining!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Omaha and Oklahoma sound a lot a like. I can see how the UKMET put the vortmax in the wrong place. I'm really starting to get sick of each and every one of your useless posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 UK looks way better than GFS. My crap this morning looks better than the GFS I miss the old days when everyone from the MA to the NE posted in the same storm thread (although I wouldn't go back to that...too crazy) and I would get to see a post like this in between a couple of met analysis posts and model analysis posts. Keep expectations low and hope for the best. Your concerns of precip being brief are a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS could be easily be right. But it's also on it's own for now. This is the year of subtlety. Little things mean a lot. Nothing is going to come easy. And we should take what we can get. I never get a warm and fuzzy when non-euro foreign models start dominating the thread after a crappy US global run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 UK looks way better than GFS. My crap this morning looks better than the GFS A long and strung out mess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I miss the old days when everyone from the MA to the NE posted in the same storm thread (although I wouldn't go back to that...too crazy) and I would get to see a post like this in between a couple of met analysis posts and model analysis posts. Keep expectations low and hope for the best. Your concerns of precip being brief are a good call. Many of us here have been concerned about lack of precip the whole time. I think what's putting us on edge is that we want a definitive answer and we just aren't going to get one 72 hours ahead. I think you put your money on your cards, and right now the cards don't favor the GFS as it seems to be standing on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Many of us here have been concerned about lack of precip the whole time. I think what's putting us on edge is that we want a definitive answer and we just aren't going to get one 72 hours ahead. I think you put your money on your cards, and right now the cards don't favor the GFS as it seems to be standing on its own. I would agree any other winter, but it seems this winter has been an exception to the rule. Most years the euro rules the roost, but in this cockeyed year, anytime the GFS has gone out on its own its ended up winning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You can easily see what the gfs is thinking. 18z (left) from last night and 12z (right) from today @ same point in time: 18z - 12zgfs500.JPG GFS is simply backing off on the amplification. Without it we don't get a surface low or waa precip. I started getting worried when I saw 2 runs with flatter flow out in front and now were up to 3 runs. That should be the prime focus on the euro. Does it stay amplified @ 500. If 12z comes out flat then the trend sucks. it doesn't seem like it wouldn't take that much for the gfs to improve. it's not just a clipper that comes rolling through. it does tap into the gulf a little bit, so maybe we just need it to get that vort a little further south. though i agree, 3 runs of being fairly consistent is why we're getting a little antsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it doesn't seem like it wouldn't take that much for the gfs to improve. it's not just a clipper that comes rolling through. it does tap into the gulf a little bit, so maybe we just need it to get that vort a little further south. though i agree, 3 runs of being fairly consistent is why we're getting a little antsy. The easiest thing to watch is the orientation of the 5h flow in front of the vort as it digs into the mw. All we need is a more sw-ne orientation and we're right back to the wetter runs. It's well within the envelope of expectations even if we don't like what we see right now. I'm not freaking out but I also never bought into the .50-1" totals either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The easiest thing to watch is the orientation of the 5h flow in front of the vort as it digs into the mw. All we need is a more sw-ne orientation and we're right back to the wetter runs. It's well within the envelope of expectations even if we don't like what we see right now. I'm not freaking out but I also never bought into the .50-1" totals either. I have, .5-.75 at I have, more than that, I don't know about something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 FWIW, Canadian is a pretty good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I would agree any other winter, but it seems this winter has been an exception to the rule. Most years the euro rules the roost, but in this cockeyed year, anytime the GFS has gone out on its own its ended up winning out. I keep hearing this but is this just selective memory? Not a stab at you..... just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Many of us here have been concerned about lack of precip the whole time. I think what's putting us on edge is that we want a definitive answer and we just aren't going to get one 72 hours ahead. I think you put your money on your cards, and right now the cards don't favor the GFS as it seems to be standing on its own. For the time being, the best bet is to take a GFS-EURO compromise and hope the ECMWF continues to remain steady so you know how to hedge this afternoon. The GFS could simply be handling the s/w incorrectly and making it too diffuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 dry wont be an issue for the jan 30-31 storm. Only problem is it will be about 80 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The easiest thing to watch is the orientation of the 5h flow in front of the vort as it digs into the mw. All we need is a more sw-ne orientation and we're right back to the wetter runs. It's well within the envelope of expectations even if we don't like what we see right now. I'm not freaking out but I also never bought into the .50-1" totals either. yea i buy more into high ratios than high qpf at this point. it's definitely frigid outside. i can't imagine this leaving soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 FWIW, Canadian is a pretty good hit Looks like it on the SLP maps... 1008 L in E TN at 78 -- 1007 L in C NC at 84 -- 1000 L offshore of ACY by about 150 to 200 miles or so at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 CMC NAMish http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 CMC NAMish http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Like the odds on a 4-7" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z GGEM looks alot like the EURO now. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=078&fixhh=1&hh=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 if the euro holds at 12z...then we have 2 GFS runs to try to correct the bs before we panic again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GEM screws 40N so we like according to matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 mitch, cmc runs a surface low basically due east from ar-tn-nc and off the coast...it looks good and all but...heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GEM screws 40N so we like according to matt. We want the models as vindictive towards NE as possible in order to win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 if the euro holds at 12z...then we have 2 GFS runs to try to correct the bs before we you panic again. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 mitch, cmc runs a surface low basically due east from ar-tn-nc and off the coast...it looks good and all but...heh... why the "but"? I'll take a quick 4-6" and call it a huge victory in light of the last 3 winter (including this one so far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 With some really rough estimating (hard on the small map), the GEM shows around 10 mm which is about 0.4 inches. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 With some really rough estimating (hard on the small map), the GEM shows around 10 mm which is about 0.4 inches. Not bad. looked like a tad more than that to me, but it doesn't really matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 looked like a tad more than that to me, but it doesn't really matter Yeah, hard to tell. Either way it's pretty similar to the NAM. If I could lock that in right now I'd do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not exactly sure how it gets there since UKIE goes 72 to 96 and precip panels stop at 72... but UKIE goes from a 1006 L in Arkansas at 72 to a 996 L at 96 just off (like 50 miles or so) C NJ coast. I wish we had an 84 SLP panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 why the "but"? I'll take a quick 4-6" and call it a huge victory in light of the last 3 winter (including this one so far) I just see that as highly unlikely that's all. Getting that kind of surface track will require a heck of a lot more amplification @ 500 than the gfs and maybe even the euro (i didn't look to close at the 0z euro so maybe it's the same). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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