clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We can only hope the Euro is correct. As some have said on here a western PA to Jersey transfer is a nightmare for us. Especially those of us N/W. We get 1-2 inches up front then all the moisture is robbed and its over. At least temps are not going to be an issue with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z NAM is only about .48 for DCA while 0z Euro is .61 I don't think the NAM through 84HR covers the entire storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Getting close to heartbreak time! If we can make it until tomorrow 12z runs I will be all in. Usually we get the carpet taken out from under us, or the football picked up and we are Charlie Brown by that time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Is this the NAM that had Dc 4 inches last week 12 hours before the storm started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't think the NAM through 84HR covers the entire storm... At 84 hrs the sim radar shows the precip off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Enough about the lr nam. Anything and everything it showed will be completely forgotten in about 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't think the NAM through 84HR covers the entire storm... Its only a 30 minute snowstorm, so it does unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't think the NAM through 84HR covers the entire storm... I see DC in the .01-.10 at hr84, already at the back end with nothing behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 I stand corrected, and am actually more comforted by the fact that the Euro is the most bullish on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS is being stubborn in holding that moisture and PV back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12Z GFS still showing a dusting overnight Wednesday-Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM and GFS look similar to vort max placement at 75 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Quick heavy thump... prob .4 QPF at the airports and 850s -6 to -10 and temps in the 20s... nice run What are the ratio's going to look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Its going south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well... that was a bit of a letdown... 12z GFS still says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 talk about night and day between the NAM, Euro, CMC, JMA and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Still about 0.1 total for DC. Hopefully the EURO holds its ground this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 this winter, when the GFS remains stubborn, it usually wins out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What are the ratio's going to look like? Ratios are something to really discuss within 24hrs of the event because they are highly dependent on complicated factors like dendrite growth potential and the like. Certainly with such a cold airmass, the potential is there for higher than normal ratios, but at this time, just default to assume standard ratios of 10-11:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS looks like a clipper to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS run again is extremely light even moreso than the ens mean of .20 for IAD which trended lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Last 3 runs of the gfs are really similar. No surface reflection. Vort coming out of canada not a jazzed as before. No surface low out in front to make a big pull with waa precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS may end up being right. Its usually not wrong in this time frame:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You never know. That could be anywhere from .01 to .09 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 there is always a model that dosent want to give us snow. Usually its the Euro...but which one it is is usually right. my gut says go with the least snowiest solution possible and take the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS may end up being right. Its usually not wrong in this time frame:( It could be. Maybe it's first to sniff it out. Without a some sort of surface reflection we aren't going to get that pretty slug moving in from the sw. Probably scattered to lt snow as the ull disturbance moves across only if the gfs is right. Luckily, it won't take much in this case to get juiced back up if the gfs is wrong at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS may end up being right. Its usually not wrong in this time frame:( you can't be serious, can you??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS is usually money 60-72 hours right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm seriously worried about the GFS being right. Whenever its alone, the other models always end up trending to it. We've seen this one before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS is usually money 60-72 hours right? You are bi polar, if the Euro was showing this but the GFS was showing the opposite you would say it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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