Inudaw Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS looks like a clipper to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS run again is extremely light even moreso than the ens mean of .20 for IAD which trended lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Last 3 runs of the gfs are really similar. No surface reflection. Vort coming out of canada not a jazzed as before. No surface low out in front to make a big pull with waa precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS may end up being right. Its usually not wrong in this time frame:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You never know. That could be anywhere from .01 to .09 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 there is always a model that dosent want to give us snow. Usually its the Euro...but which one it is is usually right. my gut says go with the least snowiest solution possible and take the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS may end up being right. Its usually not wrong in this time frame:( It could be. Maybe it's first to sniff it out. Without a some sort of surface reflection we aren't going to get that pretty slug moving in from the sw. Probably scattered to lt snow as the ull disturbance moves across only if the gfs is right. Luckily, it won't take much in this case to get juiced back up if the gfs is wrong at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS may end up being right. Its usually not wrong in this time frame:( you can't be serious, can you??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS is usually money 60-72 hours right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'm seriously worried about the GFS being right. Whenever its alone, the other models always end up trending to it. We've seen this one before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS is usually money 60-72 hours right? You are bi polar, if the Euro was showing this but the GFS was showing the opposite you would say it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS being right, wrong, or otherwise is irrelevant. There's not a person here who isn't concerned about its last three runs. I keep telling myself that there are 72 hours to go, lots can and probably will happen, and that Jan 30, 2010 pulled the rug out from under us a couple of days prior to the storm. I don't know if this even matches up well with that storm, but it is a good reminder that we don't necessarily have the whole picture 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You are bi polar, if the Euro was showing this but the GFS was showing the opposite you would say it's over. If it was the opposite i would say its over. yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You can easily see what the gfs is thinking. 18z (left) from last night and 12z (right) from today @ same point in time: GFS is simply backing off on the amplification. Without it we don't get a surface low or waa precip. I started getting worried when I saw 2 runs with flatter flow out in front and now were up to 3 runs. That should be the prime focus on the euro. Does it stay amplified @ 500. If 12z comes out flat then the trend sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS being right, wrong, or otherwise is irrelevant. There's not a person here who isn't concerned about its last three runs. I keep telling myself that there are 72 hours to go, lots can and probably will happen, and that Jan 30, 2010 pulled the rug out from under us a couple of days prior to the storm. I don't know if this even matches up well with that storm, but it is a good reminder that we don't necessarily have the whole picture 72 hours out. Yes, but that storm also was way different, and it gave me 6-7 inches here, which was a nice north trend surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 wailing and nashing of teeth till about 1:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Credit to ORH... what will happen next? 12z UKIE h5 at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If it was the opposite i would say its over. yes. Exactly so let's chill till we see the Euro, if that goes towards the GFS then we are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 atleast you can always count on the canadian to stay amped, if it comes in flat then you know somethings up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Credit to ORH... what will happen next? 12z UKIE h5 at 72 Well, not GFS like anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Exactly so let's chill till we see the Euro, if that goes towards the GFS then we are screwed. We aren't going to be screwed on Tuesday morning. If this were Thursday morning, maybe, but not Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelhousman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it's 100 mi SE of 18z.... Just noticed your signature. I live out in Cameron Station, West End Alexandria on Duke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ukie has a pretty amped low heading toward the OV then looks like it will attempt the quasi mb jump to the coast...... pretty similar to the Euro I'd say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 so frustrating. We cant ever get the stars to align...we should be talking about accumulations now as opposed to are we even getting a storm. There are alot of people who would be crushed if this storm was another bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ukie has a pretty amped low heading toward the OV then looks like it will attempt the quasi mb jump to the coast...... pretty similar to the Euro I'd say Well it has -12 to -14 850s at 72 and here is the surface/precip at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z UKIE would be EUROish extrapolated, if not bigger....We'll know in an hour and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 UKMET a nice hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Ukie has a pretty amped low heading toward the OV then looks like it will attempt the quasi mb jump to the coast...... pretty similar to the Euro I'd say sure is look at 700mb RH and wind streamline link below when I saw that Ukie map I almost passed out http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Omaha and Oklahoma sound a lot a like. I can see how the UKMET put the vortmax in the wrong place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 sure is look at 700mb RH and wind streamline link below when I saw that Ukie map I almost passed out http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest UKIE also has the storm with a decent tap of GOMEX moisture, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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