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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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The funny thing is the nam isn't that much different than the last 2 runs of the gfs. Heck, the 2 dry runs of the gfs aren't that much different than the wet ones. Compare the track of the vort and slp. There hasn't been much wavering there. The euro is the one with the larger swings in that regard. 

 

Just because the gfs wasn't showing .5-.75" of precip the last 2 runs doesn't mean it sucks or it's all over the place. It just wasn't showing an area of organized waa precip and just didn't quite get the slp "assembled" as it did with previous runs. The idea has remained the same for days with the gfs. 

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The funny thing is the nam isn't that much different than the last 2 runs of the gfs. Heck, the 2 dry runs of the gfs aren't that much different than the wet ones. Compare the track of the vort and slp. There hasn't been much wavering there. The euro is the one with the larger swings in that regard. 

 

Just because the gfs wasn't showing .5-.75" of precip the last 2 runs doesn't mean it sucks or it's all over the place. It just wasn't showing an area of organized waa precip and just didn't quite get the slp "assembled" as it did with previous runs. The idea has remained the same for days with the gfs. 

 

i think the vort is a little further south on the nam than the gfs...more ideal spot for us.  i don't know, maybe someone can correct me if i'm wrong.  seems like that's making a difference in our qpf. 

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i think the vort is a little further south on the nam than the gfs...more ideal spot for us.  i don't know, maybe someone can correct me if i'm wrong.  seems like that's making a difference in our qpf. 

What vort?  There is a strong h5 vort coming into W VA at 84... otherwise there is no vort near us 72-84

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NAM is what the folks in NE call a SWFE (southwest flow event)

we don't get them around here very much, but with the arctic air in place, we're standing in their shoes so to speak

if you look at the sim rad, the NAM's pretty impressive with its thump of around 6" in the DCA/BWI area with those ratios imho

I'll take it!

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all hail the nam

 

As long as the euro has the same solution I'm all for it. 

 

 

Maybe DTK can answer the question about virga. I think the NAM cloud physics takes into account evaporation below the cloud.  Still it tends to have a high bias so you probably will want to cut the precip back a little unless the other models have a similar solution.

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i think the vort is a little further south on the nam than the gfs...more ideal spot for us. i don't know, maybe someone can correct me if i'm wrong. seems like that's making a difference in our qpf.

The whole timing and amplification of the system causing quite a bit of spread with the precip. Euro obviously is amping it up the most of any model (we'll see if that holds).

Looking at the gfs last couple runs, flow is kinda flat. Especially out in front. This isn't helping in the precip dept. The ns vort is kinda dirty too coming out of canada. Much to be resolved. I'm going to stick with my call from yesterday with an area wide .25-.50 and 1-3 / 2-4. Leaning towards 2-4 based on the euro but the gfs is thinking otherwise.

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The whole timing and amplification of the system causing quite a bit of spread with the precip. Euro obviously is amping it up the most of any model (we'll see if that holds).

Looking at the gfs last couple runs, flow is kinda flat. Especially out in front. This isn't helping in the precip dept. The ns vort is kinda dirty too coming out of canada. Much to be resolved. I'm going to stick with my call from yesterday with an area wide .25-.50 and 1-3 / 2-4. Leaning towards 2-4 based on the euro but the gfs is thinking otherwise.

 

yea nam is a bit more amplified.  i think we want the placement of that ns vort as-is on the nam, and a notch further south on the gfs. 

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The whole timing and amplification of the system causing quite a bit of spread with the precip. Euro obviously is amping it up the most of any model (we'll see if that holds).

Looking at the gfs last couple runs, flow is kinda flat. Especially out in front. This isn't helping in the precip dept. The ns vort is kinda dirty too coming out of canada. Much to be resolved. I'm going to stick with my call from yesterday with an area wide .25-.50 and 1-3 / 2-4. Leaning towards 2-4 based on the euro but the gfs is thinking otherwise.

 

I think that .25-.50 area wide sounds reasonable but I'm confused as to how that would equate to 1-3/2-4?  It's been ccooooollllllldddd.

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As long as the euro has the same solution I'm all for it. 

 

 

Maybe DTK can answer the question about virga. I think the NAM cloud physics takes into account evaporation below the cloud.  Still it tends to have a high bias so you probably will want to cut the precip back a little unless the other models have a similar solution.

I do not know a ton about the details of the NAM cloud and microphysics scheme, but I'm certain it at least attempts to account for evaporation of falling particles (should the profile warrant it).  I would imagine it is difficult to parametrize given the strong size dependence.

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Im nervous man....i also dont like how this storm lasts for 9 minutes. As soon as it starts we will see the back edge on radar

 

Unless we can get 500 amped a bit more and the slp to pass through cva or south I don't think there is any way around a narrow stripe. Hug the euro is the only advice I can give. 

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