stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I got a feeling that many in here will like its shiat after 72 hrs on the 12z run Yup, its a nice hit for the area. But it's the..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 all hail the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Precip in and out in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yup, its a nice hit for the area. But it's the..... Matt swears by it, oh I mean swears at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 all hail the nam I am currently hailing it more than the GFS. Screw the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The funny thing is the nam isn't that much different than the last 2 runs of the gfs. Heck, the 2 dry runs of the gfs aren't that much different than the wet ones. Compare the track of the vort and slp. There hasn't been much wavering there. The euro is the one with the larger swings in that regard. Just because the gfs wasn't showing .5-.75" of precip the last 2 runs doesn't mean it sucks or it's all over the place. It just wasn't showing an area of organized waa precip and just didn't quite get the slp "assembled" as it did with previous runs. The idea has remained the same for days with the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Precip in and out in 6 hours. Quick heavy thump... prob .4 QPF at the airports and 850s -6 to -10 and temps in the 20s... nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Precip in and out in 6 hours. Wonder how much of that is virga with the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wonder how much of that is virga with the dry air. Hopefully not much using the h7 charts... nice omega/UVV's move over ahead hrs 76-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wonder how much of that is virga with the dry air. I didn't think the modeled qpf included virga? Only measurable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wonder how much of that is virga with the dry air. If it comes in quick we should be OK. Virga always seems to be a bigger issue when the storms take forever to develop. Seems like this one should go from northing to moderate snow pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The funny thing is the nam isn't that much different than the last 2 runs of the gfs. Heck, the 2 dry runs of the gfs aren't that much different than the wet ones. Compare the track of the vort and slp. There hasn't been much wavering there. The euro is the one with the larger swings in that regard. Just because the gfs wasn't showing .5-.75" of precip the last 2 runs doesn't mean it sucks or it's all over the place. It just wasn't showing an area of organized waa precip and just didn't quite get the slp "assembled" as it did with previous runs. The idea has remained the same for days with the gfs. i think the vort is a little further south on the nam than the gfs...more ideal spot for us. i don't know, maybe someone can correct me if i'm wrong. seems like that's making a difference in our qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i think the vort is a little further south on the nam than the gfs...more ideal spot for us. i don't know, maybe someone can correct me if i'm wrong. seems like that's making a difference in our qpf. What vort? There is a strong h5 vort coming into W VA at 84... otherwise there is no vort near us 72-84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM is what the folks in NE call a SWFE (southwest flow event) we don't get them around here very much, but with the arctic air in place, we're standing in their shoes so to speak if you look at the sim rad, the NAM's pretty impressive with its thump of around 6" in the DCA/BWI area with those ratios imho I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I didn't think the modeled qpf included virga? Only measurable? correct; the only problem is when the model underestimates the dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 all hail the nam As long as the euro has the same solution I'm all for it. Maybe DTK can answer the question about virga. I think the NAM cloud physics takes into account evaporation below the cloud. Still it tends to have a high bias so you probably will want to cut the precip back a little unless the other models have a similar solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What vort? There is a strong h5 vort coming into W VA at 84... otherwise there is no vort near us 72-84 h5 is what i'm referring to. that's a little further south on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i think the vort is a little further south on the nam than the gfs...more ideal spot for us. i don't know, maybe someone can correct me if i'm wrong. seems like that's making a difference in our qpf. The whole timing and amplification of the system causing quite a bit of spread with the precip. Euro obviously is amping it up the most of any model (we'll see if that holds). Looking at the gfs last couple runs, flow is kinda flat. Especially out in front. This isn't helping in the precip dept. The ns vort is kinda dirty too coming out of canada. Much to be resolved. I'm going to stick with my call from yesterday with an area wide .25-.50 and 1-3 / 2-4. Leaning towards 2-4 based on the euro but the gfs is thinking otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The whole timing and amplification of the system causing quite a bit of spread with the precip. Euro obviously is amping it up the most of any model (we'll see if that holds). Looking at the gfs last couple runs, flow is kinda flat. Especially out in front. This isn't helping in the precip dept. The ns vort is kinda dirty too coming out of canada. Much to be resolved. I'm going to stick with my call from yesterday with an area wide .25-.50 and 1-3 / 2-4. Leaning towards 2-4 based on the euro but the gfs is thinking otherwise. yea nam is a bit more amplified. i think we want the placement of that ns vort as-is on the nam, and a notch further south on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The whole timing and amplification of the system causing quite a bit of spread with the precip. Euro obviously is amping it up the most of any model (we'll see if that holds). Looking at the gfs last couple runs, flow is kinda flat. Especially out in front. This isn't helping in the precip dept. The ns vort is kinda dirty too coming out of canada. Much to be resolved. I'm going to stick with my call from yesterday with an area wide .25-.50 and 1-3 / 2-4. Leaning towards 2-4 based on the euro but the gfs is thinking otherwise. I think that .25-.50 area wide sounds reasonable but I'm confused as to how that would equate to 1-3/2-4? It's been ccooooollllllldddd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 12Z NAM is a bigger hit than the Euro, lets see what the GFS and Euro do at 12Z NAM at 78 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12Z NAM is a bigger hit than the Euro, lets see what the GFS and Euro do at 12Z NAM at 78 hours I thought that the Euro had 0.61 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 As long as the euro has the same solution I'm all for it. Maybe DTK can answer the question about virga. I think the NAM cloud physics takes into account evaporation below the cloud. Still it tends to have a high bias so you probably will want to cut the precip back a little unless the other models have a similar solution. I do not know a ton about the details of the NAM cloud and microphysics scheme, but I'm certain it at least attempts to account for evaporation of falling particles (should the profile warrant it). I would imagine it is difficult to parametrize given the strong size dependence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is just the timeframe from 72-78 hours, not including before and after and it shows solid .25-.5 in that time I thought that the Euro had 0.61 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Im nervous man....i also dont like how this storm lasts for 9 minutes. As soon as it starts we will see the back edge on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is just the timeframe from 72-78 hours, not including before and after and it shows solid .25-.5 in that time Looks like total NAM precip at 84 hours is <0.5 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is just the timeframe from 72-78 hours, not including before and after and it shows solid .25-.5 in that time 12z NAM is only about .48 for DCA while 0z Euro is .61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 euro is a bigger hit than NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think that .25-.50 area wide sounds reasonable but I'm confused as to how that would equate to 1-3/2-4? It's been ccooooollllllldddd. Just keeping a broad brush here. 2-4 with lollies to 5 sounds better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Im nervous man....i also dont like how this storm lasts for 9 minutes. As soon as it starts we will see the back edge on radar Unless we can get 500 amped a bit more and the slp to pass through cva or south I don't think there is any way around a narrow stripe. Hug the euro is the only advice I can give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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