swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The whole timing and amplification of the system causing quite a bit of spread with the precip. Euro obviously is amping it up the most of any model (we'll see if that holds). Looking at the gfs last couple runs, flow is kinda flat. Especially out in front. This isn't helping in the precip dept. The ns vort is kinda dirty too coming out of canada. Much to be resolved. I'm going to stick with my call from yesterday with an area wide .25-.50 and 1-3 / 2-4. Leaning towards 2-4 based on the euro but the gfs is thinking otherwise. I think that .25-.50 area wide sounds reasonable but I'm confused as to how that would equate to 1-3/2-4? It's been ccooooollllllldddd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 12Z NAM is a bigger hit than the Euro, lets see what the GFS and Euro do at 12Z NAM at 78 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12Z NAM is a bigger hit than the Euro, lets see what the GFS and Euro do at 12Z NAM at 78 hours I thought that the Euro had 0.61 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 As long as the euro has the same solution I'm all for it. Maybe DTK can answer the question about virga. I think the NAM cloud physics takes into account evaporation below the cloud. Still it tends to have a high bias so you probably will want to cut the precip back a little unless the other models have a similar solution. I do not know a ton about the details of the NAM cloud and microphysics scheme, but I'm certain it at least attempts to account for evaporation of falling particles (should the profile warrant it). I would imagine it is difficult to parametrize given the strong size dependence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is just the timeframe from 72-78 hours, not including before and after and it shows solid .25-.5 in that time I thought that the Euro had 0.61 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Im nervous man....i also dont like how this storm lasts for 9 minutes. As soon as it starts we will see the back edge on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is just the timeframe from 72-78 hours, not including before and after and it shows solid .25-.5 in that time Looks like total NAM precip at 84 hours is <0.5 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 This is just the timeframe from 72-78 hours, not including before and after and it shows solid .25-.5 in that time 12z NAM is only about .48 for DCA while 0z Euro is .61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 euro is a bigger hit than NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think that .25-.50 area wide sounds reasonable but I'm confused as to how that would equate to 1-3/2-4? It's been ccooooollllllldddd. Just keeping a broad brush here. 2-4 with lollies to 5 sounds better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Im nervous man....i also dont like how this storm lasts for 9 minutes. As soon as it starts we will see the back edge on radar Unless we can get 500 amped a bit more and the slp to pass through cva or south I don't think there is any way around a narrow stripe. Hug the euro is the only advice I can give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We can only hope the Euro is correct. As some have said on here a western PA to Jersey transfer is a nightmare for us. Especially those of us N/W. We get 1-2 inches up front then all the moisture is robbed and its over. At least temps are not going to be an issue with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12z NAM is only about .48 for DCA while 0z Euro is .61 I don't think the NAM through 84HR covers the entire storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Getting close to heartbreak time! If we can make it until tomorrow 12z runs I will be all in. Usually we get the carpet taken out from under us, or the football picked up and we are Charlie Brown by that time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Is this the NAM that had Dc 4 inches last week 12 hours before the storm started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't think the NAM through 84HR covers the entire storm... At 84 hrs the sim radar shows the precip off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Enough about the lr nam. Anything and everything it showed will be completely forgotten in about 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't think the NAM through 84HR covers the entire storm... Its only a 30 minute snowstorm, so it does unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't think the NAM through 84HR covers the entire storm... I see DC in the .01-.10 at hr84, already at the back end with nothing behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 I stand corrected, and am actually more comforted by the fact that the Euro is the most bullish on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS is being stubborn in holding that moisture and PV back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 12Z GFS still showing a dusting overnight Wednesday-Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM and GFS look similar to vort max placement at 75 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Quick heavy thump... prob .4 QPF at the airports and 850s -6 to -10 and temps in the 20s... nice run What are the ratio's going to look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Its going south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well... that was a bit of a letdown... 12z GFS still says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 talk about night and day between the NAM, Euro, CMC, JMA and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Still about 0.1 total for DC. Hopefully the EURO holds its ground this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 this winter, when the GFS remains stubborn, it usually wins out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What are the ratio's going to look like? Ratios are something to really discuss within 24hrs of the event because they are highly dependent on complicated factors like dendrite growth potential and the like. Certainly with such a cold airmass, the potential is there for higher than normal ratios, but at this time, just default to assume standard ratios of 10-11:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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