aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The mood of the board is generally set by a few posters...its funny to watch and I definitely get caught up in it on occasion. We really need the 12z gfs to come back some.....and the euro to hold of course...watch them flip now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The GFS is an awful model in the day 3-4 range (not sure why it always has these issues), yet I think it is better than the NAM between days 1-3. Ususally it takes a run or two to catch up to the Euro. I'd look for it to correct by 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The mood of the board is generally set by a few posters...its funny to watch and I definitely get caught up in it on occasion. We really need the 12z gfs to come back some.....and the euro to hold of course...watch them flip now Seems to me this winter when we need the euro to hold course so close it shafts us..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Welp, the last half dozen times that the Euro has been in our corner and the GFS hasn't have been seemingly the ONLY half dozen times that the GFS scores a coup. #weenielogic #seriouslythough #stillworried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 As someone once said.......cold/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Welp, the last half dozen times that the Euro has been in our corner and the GFS hasn't have been seemingly the ONLY half dozen times that the GFS scores a coup. #weenielogic #seriouslythough #stillworried The difference here is most of those times the euro was off the reservation with its own solution without much support. This time it is the GFS that has gone off on its own without support. Plus this past run of the GFS and its off hour run were different from previous GFS runs. I would not worry much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The GFS is an awful model in the day 3-4 range (not sure why it always has these issues), yet I think it is better than the NAM between days 1-3. Ususally it takes a run or two to catch up to the Euro. I'd look for it to correct by 0Z. Interesting opinion given that objective, quantitative verification suggests otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Welp, the last half dozen times that the Euro has been in our corner and the GFS hasn't have been seemingly the ONLY half dozen times that the GFS scores a coup. #weenielogic #seriouslythough #stillworried It's not like the GFS has been bad runs the entire time, as before 00z and 06z it had some decent hits. The GFS has been all over the place so maybe we should let it agree with itself for a bit before putting it in the GFS vs euro debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The GFS is an awful model in the day 3-4 range (not sure why it always has these issues), yet I think it is better than the NAM between days 1-3. Ususally it takes a run or two to catch up to the Euro. I'd look for it to correct by 0Z. Interesting opinion given that objective, quantitative verification suggests otherwise. Yep, I posted verification rates yesterday and the GFS really wasn't that bad. With that said, the GEFS was better than the GFS and that actually hasn't been THAT bad of an outcome for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 JB2 is on board, which means its probably time to bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 500 vort @ 6z looks a tick south and stronger than 0z, so there's some improvements there i think: 6z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=06ℑ=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_099_500_vort_ht.gif 0z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_102_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What does the EURO say about temps after the storm? I'm hoping for some bitter cold to follow this up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Still like the fact that the EC and EC ensembles are leading the way here in the 4-7 day range...again...as it typically does with these transitional Miller B events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Should even 1" - 3" of snow fall on Friday, that snow pack would yield some impressive nighttime lows Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it's not really a miller b....it is more of a center jump....we need to get front thumped...that is for sure....if this slows down and a coastal takes over quickly we get 1-2" I don't think I'd call it a miller b on this Euro run. The low stays pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yep, I posted verification rates yesterday and the GFS really wasn't that bad. With that said, the GEFS was better than the GFS and that actually hasn't been THAT bad of an outcome for us. we sort of lost the GEFS at 6z, they were still good at 0z but went very dry as well at 6. I was more worried about that then the operational going dry. Still think its wrong but we will see. This season getting precip in here when it is cold has been like a quest to the 4 corners of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Should even 1" - 3" of snow fall on Friday, that snow pack would yield some impressive nighttime lows Saturday and Sunday. Indeed. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the areas in northern Carroll/Baltimore counties get close to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't think I'd call it a miller b on this Euro run. The low stays pretty far south. Now that I have actually seen the euro run I am wondering what all the fear was about. I hate getting into an argument over miller a/b or just a transfer but the low tracks well south, and transfers to the NC coast not off the mid atlantic. Its just about perfect and would be a 5-10" snow for the area. I guess some can be upset that Boston gets 20" but who cares. Now being worried that it is wrong and the GFS solution is right is legitimate, but being worried about that Euro run somehow implying a screw job is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 At what point does one place any emphasis on the SREFS. I think I know the answer, but someone please tell me it's way too early for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 At what point does one place any emphasis on the SREFS. I think I know the answer, but someone please tell me it's way too early for that. I'd start looking at them tomorrow evening, just my two cents. I found it's best to wait until you're under 48 hours before using that particular guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 At what point does one place any emphasis on the SREFS. I think I know the answer, but someone please tell me it's way too early for that. lol...why...they look like the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Now being worried that it is wrong and the GFS solution is right is legitimate, but being worried about that Euro run somehow implying a screw job is not. Well, we all know these coastal transfers happen further north than progged and the models typically pick up on that as we get closer, so if the Euro is depicting transfer off of NC today, by Thursday it will be indicating transfer off of DE. (Or the GFS could be right, and there is no storm and we will just get a clipperlike system with flurries.) I am always worried when there is no model consensus, because the times we get significant snow when the major models are not in consensus by 84/72 hours seem few and far between. It usually means there are too many factors to "get right" for us to have snow, and this could be another one of those instances. I sure hope I'm wrong though, because this cold air would be a shame to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't think I'd call it a miller b on this Euro run. The low stays pretty far south. Your favorite weenie is going to miss the storm. But I'm still watching it and hoping it destroys our weather. I get excited when I see things come together even if I'm not going to be here. I love my Mid Atlantic peeps Although it's not that great, I bet the 12z NAM comes in with like an inch of QPF over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Your favorite weenie is going to miss the storm. But I'm still watching it and hoping it destroys our weather. I get excited when I see things come together even if I'm not going to be here. I love my Mid Atlantic peeps Although it's not that great, I bet the 12z NAM comes in with like an inch of QPF over us. And there is a certain weenie on here who will still call it a s^&% model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 And there is a certain weenie on here who will still call it a s^&% model Well it is a sh*t model, especially past 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well it is a sh*t model, especially past 48 hours. I got a feeling that many in here will like its shiat after 72 hrs on the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well it's definitely not going south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 -10c 850s and .25 QPF at 78... tasteh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I have never seen everyone so pissed off by such a great Euro run. What in the hell is the matter with us?Lol... New to this forum, I see. You know the drill. Paranoia and not being in the bullseye leads to lots of complaining. However, 2 days from now, we'll be scratching and clawing just to see a few flakes and wishing that run of the Euro had verified.MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 DC close to 0.50 total and cold. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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