Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 At what point does one place any emphasis on the SREFS. I think I know the answer, but someone please tell me it's way too early for that. I'd start looking at them tomorrow evening, just my two cents. I found it's best to wait until you're under 48 hours before using that particular guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 At what point does one place any emphasis on the SREFS. I think I know the answer, but someone please tell me it's way too early for that. lol...why...they look like the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Now being worried that it is wrong and the GFS solution is right is legitimate, but being worried about that Euro run somehow implying a screw job is not. Well, we all know these coastal transfers happen further north than progged and the models typically pick up on that as we get closer, so if the Euro is depicting transfer off of NC today, by Thursday it will be indicating transfer off of DE. (Or the GFS could be right, and there is no storm and we will just get a clipperlike system with flurries.) I am always worried when there is no model consensus, because the times we get significant snow when the major models are not in consensus by 84/72 hours seem few and far between. It usually means there are too many factors to "get right" for us to have snow, and this could be another one of those instances. I sure hope I'm wrong though, because this cold air would be a shame to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't think I'd call it a miller b on this Euro run. The low stays pretty far south. Your favorite weenie is going to miss the storm. But I'm still watching it and hoping it destroys our weather. I get excited when I see things come together even if I'm not going to be here. I love my Mid Atlantic peeps Although it's not that great, I bet the 12z NAM comes in with like an inch of QPF over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Your favorite weenie is going to miss the storm. But I'm still watching it and hoping it destroys our weather. I get excited when I see things come together even if I'm not going to be here. I love my Mid Atlantic peeps Although it's not that great, I bet the 12z NAM comes in with like an inch of QPF over us. And there is a certain weenie on here who will still call it a s^&% model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 And there is a certain weenie on here who will still call it a s^&% model Well it is a sh*t model, especially past 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well it is a sh*t model, especially past 48 hours. I got a feeling that many in here will like its shiat after 72 hrs on the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well it's definitely not going south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 -10c 850s and .25 QPF at 78... tasteh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I have never seen everyone so pissed off by such a great Euro run. What in the hell is the matter with us?Lol... New to this forum, I see. You know the drill. Paranoia and not being in the bullseye leads to lots of complaining. However, 2 days from now, we'll be scratching and clawing just to see a few flakes and wishing that run of the Euro had verified.MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 DC close to 0.50 total and cold. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I got a feeling that many in here will like its shiat after 72 hrs on the 12z run Yup, its a nice hit for the area. But it's the..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 all hail the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Precip in and out in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yup, its a nice hit for the area. But it's the..... Matt swears by it, oh I mean swears at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 all hail the nam I am currently hailing it more than the GFS. Screw the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The funny thing is the nam isn't that much different than the last 2 runs of the gfs. Heck, the 2 dry runs of the gfs aren't that much different than the wet ones. Compare the track of the vort and slp. There hasn't been much wavering there. The euro is the one with the larger swings in that regard. Just because the gfs wasn't showing .5-.75" of precip the last 2 runs doesn't mean it sucks or it's all over the place. It just wasn't showing an area of organized waa precip and just didn't quite get the slp "assembled" as it did with previous runs. The idea has remained the same for days with the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Precip in and out in 6 hours. Quick heavy thump... prob .4 QPF at the airports and 850s -6 to -10 and temps in the 20s... nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Precip in and out in 6 hours. Wonder how much of that is virga with the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wonder how much of that is virga with the dry air. Hopefully not much using the h7 charts... nice omega/UVV's move over ahead hrs 76-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wonder how much of that is virga with the dry air. I didn't think the modeled qpf included virga? Only measurable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wonder how much of that is virga with the dry air. If it comes in quick we should be OK. Virga always seems to be a bigger issue when the storms take forever to develop. Seems like this one should go from northing to moderate snow pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The funny thing is the nam isn't that much different than the last 2 runs of the gfs. Heck, the 2 dry runs of the gfs aren't that much different than the wet ones. Compare the track of the vort and slp. There hasn't been much wavering there. The euro is the one with the larger swings in that regard. Just because the gfs wasn't showing .5-.75" of precip the last 2 runs doesn't mean it sucks or it's all over the place. It just wasn't showing an area of organized waa precip and just didn't quite get the slp "assembled" as it did with previous runs. The idea has remained the same for days with the gfs. i think the vort is a little further south on the nam than the gfs...more ideal spot for us. i don't know, maybe someone can correct me if i'm wrong. seems like that's making a difference in our qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i think the vort is a little further south on the nam than the gfs...more ideal spot for us. i don't know, maybe someone can correct me if i'm wrong. seems like that's making a difference in our qpf. What vort? There is a strong h5 vort coming into W VA at 84... otherwise there is no vort near us 72-84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM is what the folks in NE call a SWFE (southwest flow event) we don't get them around here very much, but with the arctic air in place, we're standing in their shoes so to speak if you look at the sim rad, the NAM's pretty impressive with its thump of around 6" in the DCA/BWI area with those ratios imho I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I didn't think the modeled qpf included virga? Only measurable? correct; the only problem is when the model underestimates the dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 all hail the nam As long as the euro has the same solution I'm all for it. Maybe DTK can answer the question about virga. I think the NAM cloud physics takes into account evaporation below the cloud. Still it tends to have a high bias so you probably will want to cut the precip back a little unless the other models have a similar solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What vort? There is a strong h5 vort coming into W VA at 84... otherwise there is no vort near us 72-84 h5 is what i'm referring to. that's a little further south on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i think the vort is a little further south on the nam than the gfs...more ideal spot for us. i don't know, maybe someone can correct me if i'm wrong. seems like that's making a difference in our qpf. The whole timing and amplification of the system causing quite a bit of spread with the precip. Euro obviously is amping it up the most of any model (we'll see if that holds). Looking at the gfs last couple runs, flow is kinda flat. Especially out in front. This isn't helping in the precip dept. The ns vort is kinda dirty too coming out of canada. Much to be resolved. I'm going to stick with my call from yesterday with an area wide .25-.50 and 1-3 / 2-4. Leaning towards 2-4 based on the euro but the gfs is thinking otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The whole timing and amplification of the system causing quite a bit of spread with the precip. Euro obviously is amping it up the most of any model (we'll see if that holds). Looking at the gfs last couple runs, flow is kinda flat. Especially out in front. This isn't helping in the precip dept. The ns vort is kinda dirty too coming out of canada. Much to be resolved. I'm going to stick with my call from yesterday with an area wide .25-.50 and 1-3 / 2-4. Leaning towards 2-4 based on the euro but the gfs is thinking otherwise. yea nam is a bit more amplified. i think we want the placement of that ns vort as-is on the nam, and a notch further south on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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