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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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We were forecasted for 6-10" in 1/05 up until the snow started falling. I don't remember all the model outputs leading up to the event, but I would guess the models were showing "south" for the 500 mb features too at this time-range.

I think there were some models still showing a nice hit, but I saw enough from the data the day before to know we were screwed and it was a philly north special.  Never understood why NWS was going with the snowier forecast. 

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Yeah that can happen....given the time frame, nobody should be tying nooses or spiking the ball yet, no matter where you live. Its just one run. The handling of the PAC energy that comes on shore about 48h from now will be pretty key.

Well there's no noose-tying nor ball-spiking in the subforum right now. It's just the kind of sinking feeling you get after you see two-- one from the GFS, and one from the Euro-- of the multiple ways that snowstorms can screw our area. The verbatim Euro output is great, but when we look at going from 0.6" DCA to 0.74" BWI to >0.75" NYC to >1.4" Boston, there's obviously a chance that that *could* end up much worse for our region.

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you are starting to become incredibly tedious....this redevelops well off the coast of Jersey...it is of no help to us as depicted...doesnt even come close to helping you....I dont care about your academic examples...we all know about different setups

keep in mind I have not "seen" this run like you have  yet, so I don't know where it develops the secondary.  My point is still the same, if the primary tracks south of us... we will do ok.  North and east may do better, but we would still be ok.  We really get screwed with the primary tracks right over us or to our north... because we dry slot.  If the track is what the euro is showing we are fine. 

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keep in mind I have not "seen" this run like you have  yet, so I don't know where it develops the secondary.  My point is still the same, if the primary tracks south of us... we will do ok.  North and east may do better, but we would still be ok.  We really get screwed with the primary tracks right over us or to our north... because we dry slot.  If the track is what the euro is showing we are fine. 

 

I agree....I still get worried that we dry slot quickly despite the track.....it is not a well organized storm until it gets past our latitude

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January 2005 may have been the nastiest and most miserable 6" storm I've experienced, not just because it underperformed, but the dry slot ended it so damn early. Sure, compared to some I was lucky to get 6" but I wanted 8-14 which was what LWX called for. I was a 14 year old kid who started despising New England that day, thanks to that storm.

Seeing 40N with a MECS on the euro while we're relatively left behind, brings back these haunted memories. Being on the edge is never fun, especially in a miller B type scenario. Having said that, at this point I'd take 6" in a heartbeat, even January 2005 style.

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I'd take a couple inches snow along with this cold airmass and be content for the remainder of the winter.

 

However, this is an ENSO Neutral winter so its going to be super tough to even get 1-2 inches in a snowstorm this year.

 

So - I'll stick with persistence and expect light snow showers and/or light sleet showers with a coating on my car top.

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No model consensus

Euro hinting at Miller B screwjob potential

Xtrapolated NAM showing hit

Two last GFS runs showing cold and dry

(Read down the left-hand side...)

you don't have to extrapolate the NAM; it already shows a hit

here is the surface for 81 and 84 and radar at 84

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=06ℑ=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=06ℑ=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=sim_radar&cycle=06ℑ=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif

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I think anyone saying they aren't concerned about the GFS is lying. However, it would seem the the Euro still looks good. The others like the Ukie, Nam, Ggem, even Nogaps still have the OV low and give us good precip.

Wet is first priority. Wet is second priority. And, finally, wet is third priority.

BTW, I'm the one who started the Chill storm thread. Let me know if my services are required again.

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I see the 06Z run is following the lead of the 00Z run of the GFS which I sort of expected. Seems that the off runs have a tendency to do that. Not to worried about that yet with all the guidance from the other models. Of course if the 12Z comes in with a similar solution I might start worrying that it might be sending up a red flag in regards to the northern system being stronger and with how that has been a dominant theme this year you have to consider it.

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As mentioned...I'm just looking for wet right now....6z nam provides that...euro did...Canadian did....it's only Tuesday so hope is still there for me at least. No bailing until Wednesday nights runs if they all go dry

 

 

The JMA is wet too......but warm

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As mentioned...I'm just looking for wet right now....6z nam provides that...euro did...Canadian did....it's only Tuesday so hope is still there for me at least. No bailing until Wednesday nights runs if they all go dry

on the one hand I understand the paranoia about a dry scenario, but as you mention, the bulk of the models are not dry and we all know there's always one model that catches on late so I'm less paranoid than usual actually

as long as you are not worried about being the jackpot, this is the best shot we've had in 3 years

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