TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'd take this run. No kidding, you do well. We all do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We were forecasted for 6-10" in 1/05 up until the snow started falling. I don't remember all the model outputs leading up to the event, but I would guess the models were showing "south" for the 500 mb features too at this time-range. I think there were some models still showing a nice hit, but I saw enough from the data the day before to know we were screwed and it was a philly north special. Never understood why NWS was going with the snowier forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah that can happen....given the time frame, nobody should be tying nooses or spiking the ball yet, no matter where you live. Its just one run. The handling of the PAC energy that comes on shore about 48h from now will be pretty key. Well there's no noose-tying nor ball-spiking in the subforum right now. It's just the kind of sinking feeling you get after you see two-- one from the GFS, and one from the Euro-- of the multiple ways that snowstorms can screw our area. The verbatim Euro output is great, but when we look at going from 0.6" DCA to 0.74" BWI to >0.75" NYC to >1.4" Boston, there's obviously a chance that that *could* end up much worse for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 you are starting to become incredibly tedious....this redevelops well off the coast of Jersey...it is of no help to us as depicted...doesnt even come close to helping you....I dont care about your academic examples...we all know about different setups keep in mind I have not "seen" this run like you have yet, so I don't know where it develops the secondary. My point is still the same, if the primary tracks south of us... we will do ok. North and east may do better, but we would still be ok. We really get screwed with the primary tracks right over us or to our north... because we dry slot. If the track is what the euro is showing we are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Anything else in the euro run after the Friday non event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 keep in mind I have not "seen" this run like you have yet, so I don't know where it develops the secondary. My point is still the same, if the primary tracks south of us... we will do ok. North and east may do better, but we would still be ok. We really get screwed with the primary tracks right over us or to our north... because we dry slot. If the track is what the euro is showing we are fine. I agree....I still get worried that we dry slot quickly despite the track.....it is not a well organized storm until it gets past our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Anything else in the euro run after the Friday non event? torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 torch followed by pattern reload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it is a quick event...9-10 hours.......could be less if we get dry slot screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it is a quick event...9-10 hours.......could be less if we get dry slot screwed I'm not gonna even think about that, until its shown. Hopefully it never is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 "FOLKS what i posted above is a modrel discussin analysis... NOT my forecast. There IS a difference. In science one has to be able to look at things and scenarios objectively before giving YOUR opinion. Unfortunately since 90%of all americans are science morons.. Few seem to understand this." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 January 2005 may have been the nastiest and most miserable 6" storm I've experienced, not just because it underperformed, but the dry slot ended it so damn early. Sure, compared to some I was lucky to get 6" but I wanted 8-14 which was what LWX called for. I was a 14 year old kid who started despising New England that day, thanks to that storm. Seeing 40N with a MECS on the euro while we're relatively left behind, brings back these haunted memories. Being on the edge is never fun, especially in a miller B type scenario. Having said that, at this point I'd take 6" in a heartbeat, even January 2005 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Euro ensemble mean looks to be a close match to operational Euro....... MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM pretty awesome, and it weakens the QPF a bit at the end which is suspect, would end up being .5+ for all, BWI .5 almost in 3 hours! 81-84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I really wish this system would start during the morning hours of Friday. Weather systems normally come in a few hours ahead of forecast so that's a small positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I have never seen everyone so pissed off by such a great Euro run. What in the hell is the matter with us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I have never seen everyone so pissed off by such a great Euro run. What in the hell is the matter with us? Yea, kinda pisses me off. .8 QPF for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wow! the GFS is continuing it's trend of weakening the southern stream and robbing us of any QPF. Dry run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'd take a couple inches snow along with this cold airmass and be content for the remainder of the winter. However, this is an ENSO Neutral winter so its going to be super tough to even get 1-2 inches in a snowstorm this year. So - I'll stick with persistence and expect light snow showers and/or light sleet showers with a coating on my car top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wow! the GFS is continuing it's trend of weakening the southern stream and robbing us of any QPF. Dry run. No snow for NE either on that run if I am reading it right. Amusing to see the GFS wander off on its own. I love a good weather model fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 geez, gotta like the 6z NAM looks a lot like the Euro, but has the southern stream a hair stronger and northern a hair weaker GFS is probably overplaying the northern stream as it still has a tendency to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 No model consensus Euro hinting at Miller B screwjob potential Xtrapolated NAM showing hit Two last GFS runs showing cold and dry (Read down the left-hand side...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 No model consensus Euro hinting at Miller B screwjob potential Xtrapolated NAM showing hit Two last GFS runs showing cold and dry (Read down the left-hand side...) you don't have to extrapolate the NAM; it already shows a hit here is the surface for 81 and 84 and radar at 84 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=06ℑ=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=06ℑ=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=06ℑ=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well, I needed an "X" for my acrostic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think anyone saying they aren't concerned about the GFS is lying. However, it would seem the the Euro still looks good. The others like the Ukie, Nam, Ggem, even Nogaps still have the OV low and give us good precip. Wet is first priority. Wet is second priority. And, finally, wet is third priority. BTW, I'm the one who started the Chill storm thread. Let me know if my services are required again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I see the 06Z run is following the lead of the 00Z run of the GFS which I sort of expected. Seems that the off runs have a tendency to do that. Not to worried about that yet with all the guidance from the other models. Of course if the 12Z comes in with a similar solution I might start worrying that it might be sending up a red flag in regards to the northern system being stronger and with how that has been a dominant theme this year you have to consider it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 As mentioned...I'm just looking for wet right now....6z nam provides that...euro did...Canadian did....it's only Tuesday so hope is still there for me at least. No bailing until Wednesday nights runs if they all go dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 As mentioned...I'm just looking for wet right now....6z nam provides that...euro did...Canadian did....it's only Tuesday so hope is still there for me at least. No bailing until Wednesday nights runs if they all go dry The JMA is wet too......but warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 As mentioned...I'm just looking for wet right now....6z nam provides that...euro did...Canadian did....it's only Tuesday so hope is still there for me at least. No bailing until Wednesday nights runs if they all go dry on the one hand I understand the paranoia about a dry scenario, but as you mention, the bulk of the models are not dry and we all know there's always one model that catches on late so I'm less paranoid than usual actually as long as you are not worried about being the jackpot, this is the best shot we've had in 3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I have never seen everyone so pissed off by such a great Euro run. What in the hell is the matter with us? that would be a long list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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