North Balti Zen Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wow! the GFS is continuing it's trend of weakening the southern stream and robbing us of any QPF. Dry run. No snow for NE either on that run if I am reading it right. Amusing to see the GFS wander off on its own. I love a good weather model fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 geez, gotta like the 6z NAM looks a lot like the Euro, but has the southern stream a hair stronger and northern a hair weaker GFS is probably overplaying the northern stream as it still has a tendency to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 No model consensus Euro hinting at Miller B screwjob potential Xtrapolated NAM showing hit Two last GFS runs showing cold and dry (Read down the left-hand side...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 No model consensus Euro hinting at Miller B screwjob potential Xtrapolated NAM showing hit Two last GFS runs showing cold and dry (Read down the left-hand side...) you don't have to extrapolate the NAM; it already shows a hit here is the surface for 81 and 84 and radar at 84 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=06ℑ=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=06ℑ=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=06ℑ=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well, I needed an "X" for my acrostic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think anyone saying they aren't concerned about the GFS is lying. However, it would seem the the Euro still looks good. The others like the Ukie, Nam, Ggem, even Nogaps still have the OV low and give us good precip. Wet is first priority. Wet is second priority. And, finally, wet is third priority. BTW, I'm the one who started the Chill storm thread. Let me know if my services are required again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I see the 06Z run is following the lead of the 00Z run of the GFS which I sort of expected. Seems that the off runs have a tendency to do that. Not to worried about that yet with all the guidance from the other models. Of course if the 12Z comes in with a similar solution I might start worrying that it might be sending up a red flag in regards to the northern system being stronger and with how that has been a dominant theme this year you have to consider it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 As mentioned...I'm just looking for wet right now....6z nam provides that...euro did...Canadian did....it's only Tuesday so hope is still there for me at least. No bailing until Wednesday nights runs if they all go dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 As mentioned...I'm just looking for wet right now....6z nam provides that...euro did...Canadian did....it's only Tuesday so hope is still there for me at least. No bailing until Wednesday nights runs if they all go dry The JMA is wet too......but warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 As mentioned...I'm just looking for wet right now....6z nam provides that...euro did...Canadian did....it's only Tuesday so hope is still there for me at least. No bailing until Wednesday nights runs if they all go dry on the one hand I understand the paranoia about a dry scenario, but as you mention, the bulk of the models are not dry and we all know there's always one model that catches on late so I'm less paranoid than usual actually as long as you are not worried about being the jackpot, this is the best shot we've had in 3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I have never seen everyone so pissed off by such a great Euro run. What in the hell is the matter with us? that would be a long list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The mood of the board is generally set by a few posters...its funny to watch and I definitely get caught up in it on occasion. We really need the 12z gfs to come back some.....and the euro to hold of course...watch them flip now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The GFS is an awful model in the day 3-4 range (not sure why it always has these issues), yet I think it is better than the NAM between days 1-3. Ususally it takes a run or two to catch up to the Euro. I'd look for it to correct by 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The mood of the board is generally set by a few posters...its funny to watch and I definitely get caught up in it on occasion. We really need the 12z gfs to come back some.....and the euro to hold of course...watch them flip now Seems to me this winter when we need the euro to hold course so close it shafts us..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Welp, the last half dozen times that the Euro has been in our corner and the GFS hasn't have been seemingly the ONLY half dozen times that the GFS scores a coup. #weenielogic #seriouslythough #stillworried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 As someone once said.......cold/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Welp, the last half dozen times that the Euro has been in our corner and the GFS hasn't have been seemingly the ONLY half dozen times that the GFS scores a coup. #weenielogic #seriouslythough #stillworried The difference here is most of those times the euro was off the reservation with its own solution without much support. This time it is the GFS that has gone off on its own without support. Plus this past run of the GFS and its off hour run were different from previous GFS runs. I would not worry much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The GFS is an awful model in the day 3-4 range (not sure why it always has these issues), yet I think it is better than the NAM between days 1-3. Ususally it takes a run or two to catch up to the Euro. I'd look for it to correct by 0Z. Interesting opinion given that objective, quantitative verification suggests otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Welp, the last half dozen times that the Euro has been in our corner and the GFS hasn't have been seemingly the ONLY half dozen times that the GFS scores a coup. #weenielogic #seriouslythough #stillworried It's not like the GFS has been bad runs the entire time, as before 00z and 06z it had some decent hits. The GFS has been all over the place so maybe we should let it agree with itself for a bit before putting it in the GFS vs euro debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The GFS is an awful model in the day 3-4 range (not sure why it always has these issues), yet I think it is better than the NAM between days 1-3. Ususally it takes a run or two to catch up to the Euro. I'd look for it to correct by 0Z. Interesting opinion given that objective, quantitative verification suggests otherwise. Yep, I posted verification rates yesterday and the GFS really wasn't that bad. With that said, the GEFS was better than the GFS and that actually hasn't been THAT bad of an outcome for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 JB2 is on board, which means its probably time to bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 500 vort @ 6z looks a tick south and stronger than 0z, so there's some improvements there i think: 6z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=06ℑ=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_099_500_vort_ht.gif 0z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_102_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What does the EURO say about temps after the storm? I'm hoping for some bitter cold to follow this up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Still like the fact that the EC and EC ensembles are leading the way here in the 4-7 day range...again...as it typically does with these transitional Miller B events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Should even 1" - 3" of snow fall on Friday, that snow pack would yield some impressive nighttime lows Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it's not really a miller b....it is more of a center jump....we need to get front thumped...that is for sure....if this slows down and a coastal takes over quickly we get 1-2" I don't think I'd call it a miller b on this Euro run. The low stays pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yep, I posted verification rates yesterday and the GFS really wasn't that bad. With that said, the GEFS was better than the GFS and that actually hasn't been THAT bad of an outcome for us. we sort of lost the GEFS at 6z, they were still good at 0z but went very dry as well at 6. I was more worried about that then the operational going dry. Still think its wrong but we will see. This season getting precip in here when it is cold has been like a quest to the 4 corners of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Should even 1" - 3" of snow fall on Friday, that snow pack would yield some impressive nighttime lows Saturday and Sunday. Indeed. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the areas in northern Carroll/Baltimore counties get close to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I don't think I'd call it a miller b on this Euro run. The low stays pretty far south. Now that I have actually seen the euro run I am wondering what all the fear was about. I hate getting into an argument over miller a/b or just a transfer but the low tracks well south, and transfers to the NC coast not off the mid atlantic. Its just about perfect and would be a 5-10" snow for the area. I guess some can be upset that Boston gets 20" but who cares. Now being worried that it is wrong and the GFS solution is right is legitimate, but being worried about that Euro run somehow implying a screw job is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 At what point does one place any emphasis on the SREFS. I think I know the answer, but someone please tell me it's way too early for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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