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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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you get .5"+...happy?...and it has a miller B look so chances are you will do ok even when we get screwed...enjoy since yiu dont like snow after January 31st

Miller B's can screw this area too, I can do better sometimes given my further north location but not always, you really want to be Philly north/east in a Miller b.  I am happy with where things are right now at this range, its been a rotten 2 year run since Jan 2011 but maybe we all finally break the streak here. 

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well it has a center of circulation over SC/NC which helps..a coastal isnt probably going to help us...we want to see 40N get screwed to be safe, plus seeing them get screwed is always preferable anyway

And at this point out, we don't want to already be seeing the hit up the entire I-95 corridor. There are already mentions of 1/05 up in New England....

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Not always the case, Feb 2006 we only got about 3-5" of wet muck from the initial system from the west, then the deform band blew up right over our area and dropped another 4-8" real fast.  There was a storm in Feb 1996 very similar and the Christmas Day snow in 2002 come to mind just off the top of my head.  It might not happen often but if the coastal gets going quickly and south of our latitude we can get in on the deform band. 

well it has a center of circulation over SC/NC which helps..a coastal isnt probably going to help us...we want to see 40N get screwed to be safe, plus seeing them get screwed is always preferable anyway

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Not always the case, Feb 2006 we only got about 3-5" of wet muck from the initial system from the west, then the deform band blew up right over our area and dropped another 4-8" real fast.  There was a storm in Feb 1996 very similar and the Christmas Day snow in 2002 come to mind just off the top of my head.  It might not happen often but if the coastal gets going quickly and south of our latitude we can get in on the deform band. 

 

this setup is nothing like those...the coastal isn't remotely close to helping ME...i dont know about you....I speak for DC...you live somewhere else

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it is incredibly concerning

The reason we get screwed with Miller B's typically is that they are often northern branch dominant, and thus the track is too far north for our latitude.  There are examples, RARE, of miller b's that tracked far enough south that even DC did ok.  The key is how far south the system tracks.  As long as the SLP passes to our south, we will do ok.  If it morphs into a SLP into SW PA and then a redevelopment off NJ...then not so much. 

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The good thing about this solution is the vortmax manages to get south of where Jan '05 tracked in that area, so you'd do better. It tracks through VA whereas 1/05 tracked basically over your head.

We were forecasted for 6-10" in 1/05 up until the snow started falling. I don't remember all the model outputs leading up to the event, but I would guess the models were showing "south" for the 500 mb features too at this time-range.

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The reason we get screwed with Miller B's typically is that they are often northern branch dominant, and thus the track is too far north for our latitude.  There are examples, RARE, of miller b's that tracked far enough south that even DC did ok.  The key is how far south the system tracks.  As long as the SLP passes to our south, we will do ok.  If it morphs into a SLP into SW PA and then a redevelopment off NJ...then not so much. 

 

you are starting to become incredibly tedious....this redevelops well off the coast of Jersey...it is of no help to us as depicted...doesnt even come close to helping you....I dont care about your academic examples...we all know about different setups

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We were forecasted for 6-10" in 1/05 up until the snow started falling. I don't remember all the model outputs leading up to the event, but I would guess the models were showing "south" for the 500 mb features too at this time-range.

 

 

Yeah that can happen....given the time frame, nobody should be tying nooses or spiking the ball yet, no matter where you live. Its just one run. The handling of the PAC energy that comes on shore about 48h from now will be pretty key.

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