swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 DCA Friday 18z .....-3.9 2m.....-12.3 850's..... .05 Saturday 00z....-4.4 2m....-6.6 850's..... .44 Saturday 06z.....-9.3 2m.....-8.7 850's...... .12 .61 total precip....all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 you get .5"+...happy?...and it has a miller B look so chances are you will do ok even when we get screwed...enjoy since yiu dont like snow after January 31st Miller B's can screw this area too, I can do better sometimes given my further north location but not always, you really want to be Philly north/east in a Miller b. I am happy with where things are right now at this range, its been a rotten 2 year run since Jan 2011 but maybe we all finally break the streak here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 well it has a center of circulation over SC/NC which helps..a coastal isnt probably going to help us...we want to see 40N get screwed to be safe, plus seeing them get screwed is always preferable anyway And at this point out, we don't want to already be seeing the hit up the entire I-95 corridor. There are already mentions of 1/05 up in New England.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 .61 at DCA with cold temps surface and aloft. That might actually measure out to 3 inches for DCA airport:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 BWI.... .74 total precip IAD..... .58 Hell of a comeback run after the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Miller B's usually screw us over it's not really a miller b....it is more of a center jump....we need to get front thumped...that is for sure....if this slows down and a coastal takes over quickly we get 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Boston gets 20 inches with ratio at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 EURO is .8 for MTN, all snow, and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it's not really a miller b....it is more of a center jump....we need to get front thumped...that is for sure....if this slows down and a coastal takes over quickly we get 1-2" Exactly... this is prob best case for us -- as in this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 And at this point out, we don't want to already be seeing the hit up the entire I-95 corridor. There are already mentions of 1/05 up in New England.... it is incredibly concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Jan 05 gave us 3-4 inches but everyone was pissed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not always the case, Feb 2006 we only got about 3-5" of wet muck from the initial system from the west, then the deform band blew up right over our area and dropped another 4-8" real fast. There was a storm in Feb 1996 very similar and the Christmas Day snow in 2002 come to mind just off the top of my head. It might not happen often but if the coastal gets going quickly and south of our latitude we can get in on the deform band. well it has a center of circulation over SC/NC which helps..a coastal isnt probably going to help us...we want to see 40N get screwed to be safe, plus seeing them get screwed is always preferable anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Whopping 1.8 qpf in sne. Road trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it is incredibly concerning The good thing about this solution is the vortmax manages to get south of where Jan '05 tracked in that area, so you'd do better. It tracks through VA whereas 1/05 tracked basically over your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The good thing about this solution is the vortmax manages to get south of where Jan '05 tracked in that area, so you'd do better. It tracks through VA whereas 1/05 tracked basically over your head. When Will says something to calm us down, I'm calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not always the case, Feb 2006 we only got about 3-5" of wet muck from the initial system from the west, then the deform band blew up right over our area and dropped another 4-8" real fast. There was a storm in Feb 1996 very similar and the Christmas Day snow in 2002 come to mind just off the top of my head. It might not happen often but if the coastal gets going quickly and south of our latitude we can get in on the deform band. this setup is nothing like those...the coastal isn't remotely close to helping ME...i dont know about you....I speak for DC...you live somewhere else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 this setup is nothing like those...the coastal isn't remotely close to helping ME...i dont know about you....I speak for DC...you live somewhere else BWI N and E could benefit a bit. The Euro is a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it is incredibly concerning The reason we get screwed with Miller B's typically is that they are often northern branch dominant, and thus the track is too far north for our latitude. There are examples, RARE, of miller b's that tracked far enough south that even DC did ok. The key is how far south the system tracks. As long as the SLP passes to our south, we will do ok. If it morphs into a SLP into SW PA and then a redevelopment off NJ...then not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The good thing about this solution is the vortmax manages to get south of where Jan '05 tracked in that area, so you'd do better. It tracks through VA whereas 1/05 tracked basically over your head. We were forecasted for 6-10" in 1/05 up until the snow started falling. I don't remember all the model outputs leading up to the event, but I would guess the models were showing "south" for the 500 mb features too at this time-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Richmond 6-8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 this setup is nothing like those...the coastal isn't remotely close to helping ME...i dont know about you....I speak for DC...you live somewhere else I am due north of DC so in a west to east system like this we are about in the same boat when it comes to getting any coastal love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We were forecasted for 6-10" in 1/05 up until the snow started falling. I don't remember all the model outputs leading up to the event, but I would guess the models were showing "south" for the 500 mb features too at this time-range. Around 5" here from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The reason we get screwed with Miller B's typically is that they are often northern branch dominant, and thus the track is too far north for our latitude. There are examples, RARE, of miller b's that tracked far enough south that even DC did ok. The key is how far south the system tracks. As long as the SLP passes to our south, we will do ok. If it morphs into a SLP into SW PA and then a redevelopment off NJ...then not so much. you are starting to become incredibly tedious....this redevelops well off the coast of Jersey...it is of no help to us as depicted...doesnt even come close to helping you....I dont care about your academic examples...we all know about different setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We were forecasted for 6-10" in 1/05 up until the snow started falling. I don't remember all the model outputs leading up to the event, but I would guess the models were showing "south" for the 500 mb features too at this time-range. Yeah that can happen....given the time frame, nobody should be tying nooses or spiking the ball yet, no matter where you live. Its just one run. The handling of the PAC energy that comes on shore about 48h from now will be pretty key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hey guys, the Euro is a nice run. Can we just enjoy it, setups are concerning, but I like the precip we get from the W low. The other lows on the other models are not like that. They do us just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hey guys, the Euro is a nice run. Can we just enjoy it, setups are concerning, but I like the precip we get from the W low. The other lows on the other models are not like that. They do us just fine. why would I enjoy a model run?....I enjoy snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hey guys, the Euro is a nice run. Can we just enjoy it, setups are concerning, but I like the precip we get from the W low. The other lows on the other models are not like that. They do us just fine. why would I enjoy a model run?....I enjoy snow... Lol....classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 why would I enjoy a model run?....I enjoy snow... All I'm saying is I want to take my .8" of all snow QPF with cold temperatures and run. Run very far, to my backyard in dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 when I see 40N get hammered from an OV system it always makes me concerned...both that we get robbed and that 40N gets to enjoy a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'd take this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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