psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Not always the case, Feb 2006 we only got about 3-5" of wet muck from the initial system from the west, then the deform band blew up right over our area and dropped another 4-8" real fast. There was a storm in Feb 1996 very similar and the Christmas Day snow in 2002 come to mind just off the top of my head. It might not happen often but if the coastal gets going quickly and south of our latitude we can get in on the deform band. well it has a center of circulation over SC/NC which helps..a coastal isnt probably going to help us...we want to see 40N get screwed to be safe, plus seeing them get screwed is always preferable anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Whopping 1.8 qpf in sne. Road trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it is incredibly concerning The good thing about this solution is the vortmax manages to get south of where Jan '05 tracked in that area, so you'd do better. It tracks through VA whereas 1/05 tracked basically over your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The good thing about this solution is the vortmax manages to get south of where Jan '05 tracked in that area, so you'd do better. It tracks through VA whereas 1/05 tracked basically over your head. When Will says something to calm us down, I'm calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 this setup is nothing like those...the coastal isn't remotely close to helping ME...i dont know about you....I speak for DC...you live somewhere else BWI N and E could benefit a bit. The Euro is a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it is incredibly concerning The reason we get screwed with Miller B's typically is that they are often northern branch dominant, and thus the track is too far north for our latitude. There are examples, RARE, of miller b's that tracked far enough south that even DC did ok. The key is how far south the system tracks. As long as the SLP passes to our south, we will do ok. If it morphs into a SLP into SW PA and then a redevelopment off NJ...then not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The good thing about this solution is the vortmax manages to get south of where Jan '05 tracked in that area, so you'd do better. It tracks through VA whereas 1/05 tracked basically over your head. We were forecasted for 6-10" in 1/05 up until the snow started falling. I don't remember all the model outputs leading up to the event, but I would guess the models were showing "south" for the 500 mb features too at this time-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Richmond 6-8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 this setup is nothing like those...the coastal isn't remotely close to helping ME...i dont know about you....I speak for DC...you live somewhere else I am due north of DC so in a west to east system like this we are about in the same boat when it comes to getting any coastal love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We were forecasted for 6-10" in 1/05 up until the snow started falling. I don't remember all the model outputs leading up to the event, but I would guess the models were showing "south" for the 500 mb features too at this time-range. Around 5" here from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We were forecasted for 6-10" in 1/05 up until the snow started falling. I don't remember all the model outputs leading up to the event, but I would guess the models were showing "south" for the 500 mb features too at this time-range. Yeah that can happen....given the time frame, nobody should be tying nooses or spiking the ball yet, no matter where you live. Its just one run. The handling of the PAC energy that comes on shore about 48h from now will be pretty key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hey guys, the Euro is a nice run. Can we just enjoy it, setups are concerning, but I like the precip we get from the W low. The other lows on the other models are not like that. They do us just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hey guys, the Euro is a nice run. Can we just enjoy it, setups are concerning, but I like the precip we get from the W low. The other lows on the other models are not like that. They do us just fine. why would I enjoy a model run?....I enjoy snow... Lol....classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 why would I enjoy a model run?....I enjoy snow... All I'm saying is I want to take my .8" of all snow QPF with cold temperatures and run. Run very far, to my backyard in dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'd take this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'd take this run. No kidding, you do well. We all do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 We were forecasted for 6-10" in 1/05 up until the snow started falling. I don't remember all the model outputs leading up to the event, but I would guess the models were showing "south" for the 500 mb features too at this time-range. I think there were some models still showing a nice hit, but I saw enough from the data the day before to know we were screwed and it was a philly north special. Never understood why NWS was going with the snowier forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah that can happen....given the time frame, nobody should be tying nooses or spiking the ball yet, no matter where you live. Its just one run. The handling of the PAC energy that comes on shore about 48h from now will be pretty key. Well there's no noose-tying nor ball-spiking in the subforum right now. It's just the kind of sinking feeling you get after you see two-- one from the GFS, and one from the Euro-- of the multiple ways that snowstorms can screw our area. The verbatim Euro output is great, but when we look at going from 0.6" DCA to 0.74" BWI to >0.75" NYC to >1.4" Boston, there's obviously a chance that that *could* end up much worse for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 you are starting to become incredibly tedious....this redevelops well off the coast of Jersey...it is of no help to us as depicted...doesnt even come close to helping you....I dont care about your academic examples...we all know about different setups keep in mind I have not "seen" this run like you have yet, so I don't know where it develops the secondary. My point is still the same, if the primary tracks south of us... we will do ok. North and east may do better, but we would still be ok. We really get screwed with the primary tracks right over us or to our north... because we dry slot. If the track is what the euro is showing we are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Anything else in the euro run after the Friday non event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 torch followed by pattern reload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 it is a quick event...9-10 hours.......could be less if we get dry slot screwed I'm not gonna even think about that, until its shown. Hopefully it never is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 January 2005 may have been the nastiest and most miserable 6" storm I've experienced, not just because it underperformed, but the dry slot ended it so damn early. Sure, compared to some I was lucky to get 6" but I wanted 8-14 which was what LWX called for. I was a 14 year old kid who started despising New England that day, thanks to that storm. Seeing 40N with a MECS on the euro while we're relatively left behind, brings back these haunted memories. Being on the edge is never fun, especially in a miller B type scenario. Having said that, at this point I'd take 6" in a heartbeat, even January 2005 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Euro ensemble mean looks to be a close match to operational Euro....... MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 NAM pretty awesome, and it weakens the QPF a bit at the end which is suspect, would end up being .5+ for all, BWI .5 almost in 3 hours! 81-84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I really wish this system would start during the morning hours of Friday. Weather systems normally come in a few hours ahead of forecast so that's a small positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I have never seen everyone so pissed off by such a great Euro run. What in the hell is the matter with us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I have never seen everyone so pissed off by such a great Euro run. What in the hell is the matter with us? Yea, kinda pisses me off. .8 QPF for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wow! the GFS is continuing it's trend of weakening the southern stream and robbing us of any QPF. Dry run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'd take a couple inches snow along with this cold airmass and be content for the remainder of the winter. However, this is an ENSO Neutral winter so its going to be super tough to even get 1-2 inches in a snowstorm this year. So - I'll stick with persistence and expect light snow showers and/or light sleet showers with a coating on my car top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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