astarck Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 9:22 PM, 87storms said: clipper beginning its descent...http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html should be cloudy tomorrow morning...and cold. I hope it stays clear long enough for the temps to drop as low as forecasted. I'd like to see another morning with lows in the upper single digits to low teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 9:07 PM, zwyts said: youre in a much better spot when there is a DC split...I could see you doing well I'm glad CWG went with such a broad brush forecast. This is nasty forecast. Looks to me like the 18Z hi res nam also backed off and has a split. Phin and the northern guys will have better dynamics than us while the better warm advection stuff stays south. I felt more confident yesterday about last night's event than I feel for Friday's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 9:26 PM, usedtobe said: I'm glad CWG went with such a broad brush forecast. This is nasty forecast. Looks to me like the 18Z hi res nam also backed off and has a split. Phin and the northern guys will have better dynamics than us while the better warm advection stuff stays south. I felt more confident yesterday about last night's event than I feel for Friday's This is a weird one wes. It's become a disconnected piece of crap. The early runs had it simple. A so-so low track just to our nw with a simple connected piece of waa precip out in front. Very run of the mill plain vanilla kind of thing. It's morphed into two separate areas of precip with a crappy weak low to the nw on a collision course and whomever is at the accident site is kinda SOL. I blame the damn spiffy clipper for jacking up the ull flow out in front. Stoopid clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Southern Vort stealing our moisture. Those of you who said the clipper would be the better storm are most likely going to be correct. Cant complain though everyone finally got their ground covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 9:30 PM, Bob Chill said: This is a weird one wes. It's become a disconnected piece of crap. The early runs had it simple. A so-so low track just to our nw with a simple connected piece of waa precip out in front. Very run of the mill plain vanilla kind of thing. It's morphed into two separate areas of precip with a crappy weak low to the nw on a collision course and whomever is at the accident site is kinda SOL. I blame the damn spiffy clipper for jacking up the ull flow out in front. Stoopid clipper. I think it did hurt as the stronger it got the more disorganized this system became and the harder it got to back the upper flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 9:22 PM, 87storms said: clipper beginning its descent...http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html should be cloudy tomorrow morning...and cold. Nice. Thanks. Bookmarking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 how much of this is a split as opposed to downsloping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/21/2013 at 11:51 PM, Bob Chill said: Here's some clips from the gfs I pulled on the 21st. And here's how it looks now. It could be any more stark how bad it's gotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 9:37 PM, Clueless said: Nice. Thanks. Bookmarking it. someone else posted it another thread yesterday, but yea, it's pretty money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 9:42 PM, zwyts said: GFS is predictably bad....i think dusting to inch is a good call for DC metro with the possibility it snows lightly for 18 minutes im leaning toward the 18 minutes myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What's up with the GFS 850s? Crazy the models can be so different 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Darn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 9:42 PM, zwyts said: GFS is predictably bad....i think dusting to inch is a good call for DC metro with the possibility it snows lightly for 18 minutes Come on zwyts. This isn't the gfs' wheelhouse anymore. We're in the nam wheelhouse.....oh wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 9:47 PM, 87storms said: someone else posted it another thread yesterday, but yea, it's pretty money. Mitch did, it is a really cool site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Here's another really good one. Best nexrad site I know of: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/ klwx site still has most of the clipper available in the loop. Really cool to watch. St. Mary's bullseye for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 10:05 PM, Bob Chill said: Here's another really good one. Best nexrad site I know of: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/ klwx site still has most of the clipper available in the loop. Really cool to watch. St. Mary's bullseye for sure. Awesome link! Thanks for sharing that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 9:49 PM, Ian said: im leaning toward the 18 minutes myself I think the dusting to an inch scenario, Pretty sad. I hope this will stop people from saying the euro is always better as the euro had the big storm and the gfs was first to say this would be crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 10:49 PM, usedtobe said: I think the dusting to an inch scenario, Pretty sad. I hope this will stop people from saying the euro is always better as the euro had the big storm and the gfs was first to say this would be crap. At this point to me anyway.. The Gfs and euro are equals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 10:55 PM, Ji said: At this point to me anyway.. The Gfs and euro are equals Be a patriot and love the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 11:03 PM, Ian said: Be a patriot and love the GFS Yea, that + it's free for 3hr panels + it comes out 4 times a day + 12z is done at a reasonable hr + it's been neck and neck and even kicked the euro's ass more than usual this winter. Down with the euro. USA USA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Gone are the days where if euro has big snow and Gfs has nothing... We buy a shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm ready for this nuisance event to be over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 11:08 PM, Disc said: I'm ready for this nuisance event to be over with. Uh...it may never start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 11:10 PM, Ji said: Uh...it may never start He lives in the new snow capital of the ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navywxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The orientation of the trof is a little too Far East for the surface low to develop near shore. The GFS picked up on this and along with the 2 upper level disturbances being sheared out until they reach the base of the long wave trof completely took the potential for a decent snowfall away from the brethren north of the I-64 corridor. The upper level winds needed to be a more of a SWly direction than a WNW or NW to increase the moisture aloft. The end of next week looks more promising for this to occur... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I used to be a dog. But that was 3 years ago when we had real snow to yellow. Oof. This is sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Where is everyone? NAM's about to run..... Isn't everyone ready for the NAM to spit out .50????? In the year 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 1:15 AM, swimmatte said: Where is everyone? NAM's about to run..... Isn't everyone ready for the NAM to spit out .50????? In the year 2014? They jumped off the nearest cliff, bridge or elevated surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/24/2013 at 11:08 PM, Ji said: Gone are the days where if euro has big snow and Gfs has nothing... We buy a shovel. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 LWG final call for my back yard 41.8% no snow 47.2% 1.2" 10.4% 2" 0.6% 3-4" Bonus forecast for airports IAD see above BWI 100% 10"+ DCA partly sunny 33 degrees + for 27 straight hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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