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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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  On 1/24/2013 at 6:07 PM, Bob Chill said:

curious. Any movement N with the .25 line? 

there's not really a .25" line anywhere around here. no real change to those areas (way sw and offshore) tho.

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  On 1/24/2013 at 6:07 PM, Ian said:

everyone is in the .1"+ area around here.

 

Does my heart good.  Maybe I can get another 1.5"  That would be awesome.  I'd also like that for making the original favored CWG scenario from a couple of days ago look decent.  I think I like 1-2 inches for the storm.  The euro is in line with the median of the sref guidance and the close to what the high res nam have. 

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  On 1/24/2013 at 6:10 PM, usedtobe said:

Does my heart good.  Maybe I can get another 1.5"  That would be awesome.  I'd also like that for making the original favored CWG scenario from a couple of days ago look decent.  I think I like 1-2 inches for the storm.  The euro is in line with the median of the sref guidance and the close to what the high res nam have. 

yeah, sounds good. i'd take another 1" and call it a solid week.

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I thought last night that if we are to see one of those miracle improvements it would start at 18z, about 24 hours before the start. I wonder what the top end of something like this is. In the best of circumstances, how high could it go?

I'm reading of Euro improvement over last night. By how much has it improved?

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  On 1/24/2013 at 6:18 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

I thought last night that if we are to see one of those miracle improvements it would start at 18z, about 24 hours before the start. I wonder what the top end of something like this is. In the best of circumstances, how high could it go?

I'm reading of Euro improvement over last night. By how much has it improved?

mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get.

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  On 1/24/2013 at 6:19 PM, Ian said:

mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get.

 

Yea, breaking the .2" barrier is gonna be way tough. The ONLY thing I can see is getting lucky with a heavy burst at onset. waa precip can do that from time to time. Temp profiles would probably be a pretty efficient sponge wringer. 

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  On 1/24/2013 at 6:19 PM, Ian said:

mostly it had a lower qpf "hole" over VA and DC area which is now gone. im not sure how much more improvement we'd get.

 

The 500h doesn't look that great though it does have beeter warm advection than the last run which probably is what puts us back in the .10" plus range.  I don't see this becoming a .25 inch storm.  The flow just is too westerly to really get the gulf involved at this latitude (famous last words). 

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  On 1/24/2013 at 6:24 PM, usedtobe said:

The 500h doesn't look that great though it does have beeter warm advection than the last run which probably is what puts us back in the .10" plus range.  I don't see this becoming a .25 inch storm.  The flow just is too westerly to really get the gulf involved at this latitude (famous last words). 

yeah 500 isnt that good anywhere really.. the gfs was pretty lame imo. i think it is probably wise to hedge given the potential ratios tho. think cwg's thoughts are about perfect for now.

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  On 1/24/2013 at 6:36 PM, Ian said:

yeah 500 isnt that good anywhere really.. the gfs was pretty lame imo. i think it is probably wise to hedge given the potential ratios tho. think cwg's thoughts are about perfect for now.

 

The vort isn't that bad it's that the flow never really backs ahead of us.  This looks like a .12-15 event in terms of QPF. I'm not sure I trust the GFS with the euro now a little wetter. 

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  On 1/24/2013 at 7:08 PM, Ji said:

There is a wtf event sunday night/monday morning especially west of DC. 

 

.10 of mix with temps below freezing

 

Ji, Thanks.  I was so busy looking at the warming next week that I looked over Sunday into MOnday morning. I'm gonna edit my outlook to reflect the possibility 

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  On 1/24/2013 at 6:41 PM, usedtobe said:

The vort isn't that bad it's that the flow never really backs ahead of us. This looks like a .12-15 event in terms of QPF. I'm not sure I trust the GFS with the euro now a little wetter.

Looks like the in-house HPC ensemble bias corrected QPF gave us a good starting point yesterday. I used it to initialize the snowfall amounts on the WWD...which the forecast was very similar to today's ensemble of model QPF. I like it! :-)

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  On 1/24/2013 at 7:30 PM, WxUSAF said:

If we can all get comparably crazy high ratios like last night for tomorrow, many of us could get 2" if the Euro/NAM/SREF combo is correct.  DCA might get 0.5". 

\

I worry a little about the ratios as the sounding at 21Z from the NAM looks OK and would support dendrites, however  by 00Z it would not and would probably yield plates.  The latter don't give you the nice ratios. 

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  On 1/24/2013 at 7:37 PM, usedtobe said:

\

I worry a little about the ratios as the sounding at 21Z from the NAM looks OK and would support dendrites, however  by 00Z it would not and would probably yield plates.  The latter don't give you the nice ratios. 

 

Wes, is there a website or study that shows that?  I am intrigued by your statement

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