Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Thanks for posting that. I had just posted about it. Disagree about the jumping jacks. The trend is real. The only question is does it last. The sketchy part is we can forget about help from the ns low. It's weak, it sucks, and it's in a terrible place. Nothing is going to change that. It's all about that stuff to the south. It got a little closer and a little wetter this run but it's becoming precarious as to how much better things can get. If the gfs takes a step back in couple hours then thing become bleak. Every little trend needs to go our way or hold serve or we are prob done with dreams of anybody getting 3 inches. Well, except for sw va or ric or someone down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 it'll probably be important where that precip begins to develop down south tomorrow. looks like by midday tomorrow there's some precip developing over arkansas and i guess we want it to be a little more north of where nam is pointing to right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 No reason it can't continue to progress. I really have a feeling we improve further, it's pretty darn close. our zip codes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 our zip codes? Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 i'd like to know why that area has filled in. is it because we're closer to the event? is the flow aloft more conducive to higher qpf totals than last run? this is where my lack of knowledge fails me. It's just a slightly better placement of the vorticity digging a little further south and the ul flow is backed ever so slightly better so it allows us to get into the northern edge of the waa precip a little better. Overall, it's a really small step. But at least it was in the right direction. Just go back to the runs we saw before the euromonster that skewed everyone's brains. NS low passing to our nw with a nice pull of waa precip out in front. We're kinda hoping to get closer to that solution even though the ns low is weaker and the flow isn't as amplified. We're hoping for the same thing only worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Today's CWG thoughts on the storm. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/fridays-fickle-storm-will-snowflakes-fail/2013/01/23/ab65f20c-6592-11e2-85f5-a8a9228e55e7_blog.html#pagebreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It's just a slightly better placement of the vorticity digging a little further south and the ul flow is backed ever so slightly better so it allows us to get into the northern edge of the waa precip a little better. Overall, it's a really small step. But at least it was in the right direction. Just go back to the runs we saw before the euromonster that skewed everyone's brains. NS low passing to our nw with a nice pull of waa precip out in front. We're kinda hoping to get closer to that solution even though the ns low is weaker and the flow isn't as amplified. We're hoping for the same thing only worse. yea, what's nice is we still have a legitimate full day for models to continue to trend better. this is doubtful, but it would be pretty funny if this system ends up close to where it started on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Jma joined the dry party along with euro...Gfs..etc. definite wet bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Jma joined the dry party along with euro...Gfs..etc. definite wet bias not that that wasn't the correct forecast in the end, but the JMA amps everything up so it is always first to the party with the strong solution so that's why we recall it as having first "called" an event in reality, it ends up doing what it did today by scaling back to the rest of the models and that then goes unnoticed and it gets remembered by those few storms that did come in big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 The jma is like joe bastardi . It's always the first to see the biggest storms because it does over amplify everything. If the storm pans out...jma saw it first. So just like joe bastardi..it's the Dave kingman of models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z GFS has the dreaded snow hole over MD/NoVA west of the bay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 hahaha! do I need to add any analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 18z GFS has the dreaded snow hole over MD/NoVA west of the bay! haha that's a diesel snow hole, but it does look like the general precip shield shifted a hair north, which is probably a good thing for us...i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 hahaha! do I need to add any analysis? 18zanus.JPG too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think Friday is looking a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I think Friday is looking a little better. not that this run of the gfs is right, it really won't take too much of a shift for things to improve greatly (relatively speaking) imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 haha that's a diesel snow hole, but it does look like the general precip shield shifted a hair north, which is probably a good thing for us...i think. NS low near the great lakes is a little more organized. Kinda puts us a little more "in between". Not a place we want to be. We need that low to be a whole lot closer or weaker. Not that I'm saying this run is right. Just saying what I think is bad for us verbatim. Overall 500 progression is very very close to 12z. I would say the snow anus is impossible if I hadn't already witnessed it first hand a half dozen times in the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Bob, your analysis is probably spot on, but at this point the focus is probably the end result. And, comparing 24 hr precip maps at 6z sat again shows a slightly wetter result. That's what I'm taking from this. Trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Bob, your analysis is probably spot on, but at this point the focus is probably the end result. And, comparing 24 hr precip maps at 6z sat again shows a slightly wetter result. That's what I'm taking from this. Trend continues. What map was that you posted Chill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Bob, your analysis is probably spot on, but at this point the focus is probably the end result. And, comparing 24 hr precip maps at 6z sat again shows a slightly wetter result. That's what I'm taking from this. Trend continues. Honestly, I've looked at too many panels so I might be screwing up my own logic. The ns low being weaker doesn't necessarily help because we need it to draw on moisture to the south. I think the prob on 18z is more of a disconnection between the 2 areas of precip so I suppose the low being stronger but further south is a better way to go. I'll have to defer here to someone else. I'm not 100% sure what is needed at the surface to "improve" our very marginal setup. Edit: 18z is drier than 12z for the event overall. Especially to our sw where it counts. I think the trend was a net negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Edit: 18z is drier than 12z for the event overall. Especially to our sw where it counts. I think the trend was a net negative. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Honestly, I've looked at too many panels so I might be screwing up my own logic. The ns low being weaker doesn't necessarily help because we need it to draw on moisture to the south. I think the prob on 18z is more of a disconnection between the 2 areas of precip so I suppose the low being stronger but further south is a better way to go. I'll have to defer here to someone else. I'm not 100% sure what is needed at the surface to "improve" our very marginal setup. Edit: 18z is drier than 12z for the event overall. Especially to our sw where it counts. I think the trend was a net negative. i have a feeling this is gonna be one of those storms where nowcasting is going to be in full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Kinda splitting hairs, but I think the whole nva, cmd region is slightly wetter on the new run. I'm only looking at our area. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 DT fully onboard with snowhole for DC/Balt. He probably laughed when he drew that up. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stg.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 DT fully onboard with snowhole for DC/Balt. He probably laughed when he drew that up. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stg.jpg DC, Baltimore. and Philly are all in the 1 inch area per that map. Thats not unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 DC, Baltimore. and Philly are all in the 1 inch area per that map. Thats not unreasonable. I didn't say it was unreasonable. I said he probably laughed when he drew it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm just happy the people to the south will get more snow. -no truthful weenie ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm just happy the people to the south will get more snow. -no truthful weenie ever Word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I didn't say it was unreasonable. I said he probably laughed when he drew it up. Its not a snowhole, which you did say I will say this, I dont see NC getting that much snow, its going to warm aloft pretty quickly so more sleet than snow is likely down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I will be happy with my half inch of powdery snowfall. Nothing like a walk with flakes in the air, while temps plummet to the teens with the wind chill approaching zero!! I consider this to be a moderate event for our area. If I lived in Richmond, the snow capital of the southern mid-atlantic, I wouldn't blink an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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