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1/25-1/26 Storm Disco Thread


NOVAForecaster

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Question for ya....With the way this WV image looks, we have a brutal dry air mass in place, which will prevent the storm but tapping additional moisture.  What could change to open up this source? Anything?  Just trying to get a little less weenie.  ^_^

 

Don't worry about water vapor until maybe a 6 hours prior to precip (if at all). 

 

Everything is predicated on flow backing enough to the sw to open the door for the batch of precip to the s to ride up and over us. When the models were insistent that the ull flow was going to stay w-wnw through the meaninful part of the event, the slug of moisture to the south simply stayed south. That has slowly started to improve and that's the only thing we can really pay close attention to attm. We need the flow @ 500 to look like as much like a U and as little like an L as possible as the vort digs into the MW. That's about as simple as I can possibly explain it. 

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next wed/thurs gfs is implying a secondary area of low pressure developing in the south while a piece of energy is diving down from canada.  no phasing right now, but who knows...

ADD weather weenies can barely focus on a crappy clipper and crappy "storm". Bringing up storms that may or may not happen next week is not good for them.

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Don't worry about water vapor until maybe a 6 hours prior to precip (if at all). 

 

Everything is predicated on flow backing enough to the sw to open the door for the batch of precip to the s to ride up and over us. When the models were insistent that the ull flow was going to stay w-wnw through the meaninful part of the event, the slug of moisture to the south simply stayed south. That has slowly started to improve and that's the only thing we can really pay close attention to attm. We need the flow @ 500 to look like as much like a U and as little like an L as possible as the vort digs into the MW. That's about as simple as I can possibly explain it. 

 

I've often noticed that the best precip is sometimes not even "under" the best areas on the water vapor.  I always thought that the best precip would be located with the best moisturel, but its not.  I have absolutely no explanation for this, and would actually like to have that one explained by someone who knows.

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Don't worry about water vapor until maybe a 6 hours prior to precip (if at all). 

 

Everything is predicated on flow backing enough to the sw to open the door for the batch of precip to the s to ride up and over us. When the models were insistent that the ull flow was going to stay w-wnw through the meaninful part of the event, the slug of moisture to the south simply stayed south. That has slowly started to improve and that's the only thing we can really pay close attention to attm. We need the flow @ 500 to look like as much like a U and as little like an L as possible as the vort digs into the MW. That's about as simple as I can possibly explain it. 

 

Great explanation, thanks.  

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I've often noticed that the best precip is sometimes not even "under" the best areas on the water vapor.  I always thought that the best precip would be located with the best moisturel, but its not.  I have absolutely no explanation for this, and would actually like to have that one explained by someone who knows.

 

My general knowledge is that it needs upward motion to go along with it. Without lift there is nothing to make it precipitate. Moist flow just cruising along at the same altitude won't do it unless it hits mountains. Since areas of vorticity in the upper levels creates a lifting motion out in front, precip will break out in front of vorts strong enough to create enough lift and have also have enough moisture available. 

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I've often noticed that the best precip is sometimes not even "under" the best areas on the water vapor.  I always thought that the best precip would be located with the best moisturel, but its not.  I have absolutely no explanation for this, and would actually like to have that one explained by someone who knows.

 

If I remember correctly water vapor imagery gives you the best idea of whats going one at around 400mb which is often above the level of where your precipitation develops.  If you want to look for upper level impulses, and dry slots it is great. If you are looking for the heaviest rain areas look at Visible and IR imagery though the latter can also be deceiving when low top convection is going on or if you get fooled by cirrus clouds. 

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ADD weather weenies can barely focus on a crappy clipper and crappy "storm". Bringing up storms that may or may not happen next week is not good for them.

 

i just like the fact that we have potential in this pattern.  tomorrow is probably gonna weak, but entertaining with the dusty snow flying around.  i don't think anyone knows what's gonna happen on friday, but i wonder if the clipper got in the way of what the models were originally showing which was a better hit and maybe they start bringing it back.  

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I've often noticed that the best precip is sometimes not even "under" the best areas on the water vapor.  I always thought that the best precip would be located with the best moisturel, but its not.  I have absolutely no explanation for this, and would actually like to have that one explained by someone who knows.

 

i've noticed that as well and think sometimes it has to do with a lack of lift, but not sure.

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My general knowledge is that it needs upward motion to go along with it. Without lift there is nothing to make it precipitate. Moist flow just cruising along at the same altitude won't do it unless it hits mountains. Since areas of vorticity in the upper levels creates a lifting motion out in front, precip will break out in front of vorts strong enough to create enough lift and have also have enough moisture available. 

 

you stole my answer.  jk.  you explained it better.  we definitely need the added lift here being that we're on the lee side of the mountains (generally speaking).

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Great explanations guys.

 

Without getting into their usefulness, and so on, the SREFS are another step in the right direction.  I looked, briefly at the precip totals for 24 hours, both for 10 pm (3z) Friday night on the 9z and 15 z runs (66 hours vs. 60 hours).  It's noticeable.  

 

Keep the trend going, that's all I'm looking at.  It's like others have said, the model isn't going to show what happens exactly.  We'll have to wait for that.  Better trends will probably end in a better result.

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i just like the fact that we have potential in this pattern.  tomorrow is probably gonna weak, but entertaining with the dusty snow flying around.  i don't think anyone knows what's gonna happen on friday, but i wonder if the clipper got in the way of what the models were originally showing which was a better hit and maybe they start bringing it back.  

Yes. Maybe once clipper clears guidance will change. But just a weenie here.

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