TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 1:34 AM, ravensrule said: You are right, I have terrible memory but I thought it was much closer than 7 years ago. If I have time I will go back to Eastern to try and find that thread where Ji makes the JMA seem like the EURO. The jma is better than the euro, theres someone who has or had that in their signature. Remembe that anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 1:31 AM, mitchnick said: NO! JMA was the first to go with a big storm idea for 12/19/09 18Z GFS called the 2/06 storm 5 days in advance Must have got 2 then...I just Googled it and found an old thread from Eastern on the JMA and the Blizz of Feb 2006. Maybe the GFS had it as well at about the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 1:15 AM, 87storms said: my expectations are 2-3". i'm not gonna lie...a cosmetic snow just isn't gonna do much for me at this point. we've had enough of those. i'm ready for something a little more. it's actually been almost 3 years since we've had a "cold" snow that was more than a couple inches, unless i'm mistaken. that's a long wait. If you think 3 years is a long wait then you haven't lived here long enough. 09/10 winter spoiled quite a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 1:34 AM, ravensrule said: You are right, I have terrible memory but I thought it was much closer than 7 years ago. If I have time I will go back to Eastern to try and find that thread where Ji makes the JMA seem like the EURO. On 1/23/2013 at 1:31 AM, mitchnick said: NO! JMA was the first to go with a big storm idea for 12/19/09 18Z GFS called the 2/06 storm 5 days in advance Yup, that is the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 new SREFs are hideous for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 1:39 AM, ddweatherman said: The jma is better than the euro, theres someone who has or had that in their signature. Remembe that anyone? I don't remember but I'll change my sig to that if the JMA scores a coup with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 1:42 AM, MillzPirate said: I don't remember but I'll change my sig to that if the JMA scores a coup with this oneits like a cause and effect thing. I forget, something about the euro is better than all the models, something about the jma, therefore the jma is the best model or better than the euro.Btw mitch srefs arent fresh til 3z, theres some solace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 1:42 AM, kurtstack said: If you think 3 years is a long wait then you haven't lived here long enough. 09/10 winter spoiled quite a few.None of us are asking for another 09-10. But after these past few lousy years I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a simple 3-6/4-8" event given our climo. Cartoppers don't do much for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 1:44 AM, ddweatherman said: its like a cause and effect thing. I forget, something about the euro is better than all the models, something about the jma, therefore the jma is the best model or better than the euro. Btw mitch srefs arent fresh til 3z, theres some solace I thought the 21Z srefs just came out?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 1:46 AM, mitchnick said: I thought the 21Z srefs just came out?? Their data assimilation is weird, idk wish DTK was here. Someone said its one run after the main 12z/0z, but another said they get it on the same plane. It probably is new, because I think thats what dtk said since the 18z held with last week's north trend but he said wait for 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 1:46 AM, mitchnick said: I thought the 21Z srefs just came out?? They did I just took a peak for wed night's clipper. I dont know that I would put any stock in the SREFs for Friday though when the NAM has little skill at this lead-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 mass puntings upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 JMA was first to see the Feb 2006 storm. gfs a day later and then euro 2 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSquid Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 1:18 AM, swimmatte said: In all seriousness, has the JMA ever actually verified in it's existence? Serious question. It was awesome when I used it for two years in it's backyard (East Asia, Japan proper, etc.) ... But I never used it on this side of the pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 1:55 AM, Ji said: JMA was first to see the Feb 2006 storm. gfs a day later and then euro 2 days later Thats what I thought. I knew you would know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 clipper looks a little slower i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 1:56 AM, ddweatherman said: Most of us have already punted...yeah that's why there are 400 people in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 1:59 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Bad move. That's like punting on 1st down. Well I think we can make a come back wwlvr. On 1/23/2013 at 2:02 AM, Ian said: yeah that's why there are 400 people in this thread seeya.gif Wow I never looked at the srefs, but that little picture I see is disasterous, like heart breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That's one potent vort coming into the west coast on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Or the energy off California being a couple hundred miles further south. Hell, I don't know I'm looking for anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 2:06 AM, NOVAForecaster said: It's not a good sign for a storm when an entire page is discussion about the possible verification of the JMA... It was more a discussion about the poor past performance of the JMA.....we were discussing it being right once, maybe twice, in how many years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Clipper is just as good as the Friday "storm" per SREF's. What a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Is that thing trying to cut off out west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 2:10 AM, MillzPirate said: Is that thing trying to cut off out west? it sort of fizzled last time as it made its way east. hopefully it doesn't do it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Pretty drastic diffences btw 18z and 0z already with that vort at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 the first clipper really goes hog wild and messes everything up by seemingly clearing the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 12:04 AM, zwyts said: I still like a good February. Maybe 6-8" in feb and march combined. I suggested the other day that if we can sneak in a couple inches in the 1/26-2/2 period we might even be able to make median snowfall. If we don't it will be hard. But I have been pretty resolute that we would have to wait until February for anything significant. And I still like February to be -2 to -3 degrees. A couple weeks ago I told HM that I liked 2/8, 2/20 and 3/1 as potential storm dates with the 1st being our 1st moderate event of the winter. He generally agreed with the 1st 2 windows and thought the 3rd might be delayed a bit past 3/1. These are mostly WAG on my part but I think a good event for us probably won't happen until after the 5th. Hopefully between now and then we can eek out a couple inches to get a head start. I still like DCA to reach at least 5" on the season and probably closer to 8". I hope you're right, and that we can finally get some snow into DC for all to enjoy. However, it is pretty sad that we're sitting here hoping that February can somehow reverse the trend of the first two months of this winter, at least regarding snowfall. I have to admit that this winter has been disappointing to me, even with my very low expectations. I guess I'll need to lower them even more for next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 On 1/23/2013 at 2:27 AM, mitchnick said: the first clipper really goes hog wild and messes everything up by seemingly clearing the field It seemed weaker at 00z.....am I wrong? The clipper that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Friday appears to be totally dead and soon to fade into nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 It was slightly, the clipper. Don't expect the vort energy to hang around that long, geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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