Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 OK, 18z run starts in a few minutes. It's time to start to recoup .2 to .3 in qpf by Friday noon. The GFS must be the leader in this effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Well atleast there wasn't a significant storm modeled up until Thursday , saves us two days of sleep. We should be able to handle this heartbreak,only dealt with it for 2 years. Storm or no storm I'm happy I'm Alive and its cold.haha still have feb. and march and if not there's always next year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Interesting read. I was wondering, as far as forecasting this one (or for that matter, any storm), isn't it fair to say that the models provide the prediction? So if a model is being used as the basis for predicting something that is not actually in the model, should we leave that to the model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 9:03 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Surely this hasn't stopped trending. The question is, what will it trend to? I mean, I can't really see this being static for the next 66 hours. So, what does it become? I think the trend is set -- continues drier and drier. i hope I am wrong, but think we will do good to get 1-2" from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 So all of our hope rests in the GGEM now. God help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 8:30 PM, usedtobe said: who cares about out there, the clipper looks better. If you just like seeing flakes and don't care about accumulations, it's looking pretty spiffy. Are you going to be up at 1am on a school night to watch them in the street light? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Hello Mt. Holly briefing: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmac Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 9:47 PM, swimmatte said: Hello Mt. Holly briefing: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf .25 and .75 are pretty far apart, esp considering the ratios that could be possible.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 looks like the gfs snow hole is a little smaller this time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Think 0z could bring it back slightly, 18z was a bit better at h5, thought it wanted to do more with the S stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 looks a hair better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 4 gfs runs in a row showing nearly the same thing. All other meaningful guidance moving in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 18Z is slightly better... Hopefully this is a trend back in a better direction. Also tomorrow night could be an inch with the sudden clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 9:58 PM, Bob Chill said: 4 gfs runs in a row showing nearly the same thing. All other meaningful guidance moving in that direction. no worries.. early feb will be rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 I thought we said that about late December, and mid-January, and now late-January... When will the pushback of the time for actual snow end?!? On 1/22/2013 at 10:00 PM, Ian said: no worries.. early feb will be rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 10:03 PM, NOVAForecaster said: I thought we said that about late December, and mid-January, and now late-January... When will the pushback of the time for actual snow end?!? fortunately we usually start to run into a wall after mid feb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 How is 18z better? I think it's identical to even worse with the ns vort that 12z. Flow in front is the same or worse. If you're looking for a trend, 18z didn't start one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 That doesn't inspire much hope On 1/22/2013 at 10:04 PM, Ian said: fortunately we usually start to run into a wall after mid feb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 gfs gives me more from the clipper than the friday event wow. what a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 becoming apparent that the first clipper has gotten so strong it's messing things up for the trailing one shot me, but not in the head; somewhere where it really, really, hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 10:06 PM, Ji said: gfs gives me more from the clipper than the friday event wow. what a disaster Wes nailed it. The clipper will be spiffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 10:05 PM, Bob Chill said: How is 18z better? I think it's identical to even worse with the ns vort that 12z. Flow in front is the same or worse. If you're looking for a trend, 18z didn't start one. i was just thinking the vort looked a hair south, but you're right, it's still flat out ahead. basically, it's the same. i still think being 3 days out, things could change...though i don't have the knowledge to say whether it will a good trend or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 OK, this is soo outrageously bad, I can't believe it LWX has a 70% chance of snow and sleet for me on Friday....Sleet!!! are they out of their minds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 10:17 PM, mitchnick said: OK, this is soo outrageously bad, I can't believe it LWX has a 70% chance of snow and sleet for me on Friday....Sleet!!! are they out of their minds? They'tr accounting for your tears mitch. It will be cold enough for them to freeze before they hit the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 10:12 PM, 87storms said: i was just thinking the vort looked a hair south, but you're right, it's still flat out ahead. basically, it's the same. i still think being 3 days out, things could change...though i don't have the knowledge to say whether it will a good trend or not. I don't see it changing much. But come on guys, possible dusting to an inch Wednesday night, then another 1-3 inches on Friday. Anybody close to DC complaining about this week should take a close look back at what we have received so far this winter. 1 inch and then 1-3 is not too shabby for DC proper, yeah I know you guys north and west have had some decent storms. And as Ian said, February will be rockin', lol... There's always the token storm on the models for president's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 9:53 PM, dmac said: Hello Mt. Holly briefing: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf .25 and .75 are pretty far apart, esp considering the ratios that could be possible.. lol That .25-.75 was for their entire area though. Still put DC area in the .5-.75 zone, bullish or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 10:25 PM, swimmatte said: That .25-.75 was for their entire area though. Still put DC area in the .5-.75 zone, bullish or not. Pretty sure that map was made at 10am this morning........ a lot has changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 10:11 PM, mitchnick said: becoming apparent that the first clipper has gotten so strong it's messing things up for the trailing one shot me, but not in the head; somewhere where it really, really, hurts Maybe the clipper will continue to drop further south to give us a 3 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 On 1/22/2013 at 10:27 PM, MillzPirate said: That .25-.75 was for their entire area though. Still put DC area in the .5-.75 zone, bullish or not. Pretty sure that map was made at 10am this morning........ a lot has changed Then why include it in their 3pm briefing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wow, 18z pulls the plug down here on Friday now-- to close to a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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