NOVAForecaster Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Models are starting to converge on the potential for decent accumulating snow. The Euro leads the way in bullishness on the snow, with the GFS and the UKMET not far behind. Will this finally end the DC/Balt snow drought of the last 2 winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 It's not a guarantee yet, but we're 4 days out with decent agreement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Storm Cancel thanks to NOVAForecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Storm Cancel thanks to NOVAForecaster. Mid-atlantic Public Enemy 1 All in good fun, NoVA, we are just kidding around with you......................... some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It's not a guarantee yet, but we're 4 days out with decent agreement... 4 days is 4 months in model world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Lol@people thinking a thread controls wx Even if it doesn't, it definitely controls the next model run lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 We just gotta have faith in the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euro ENS mean looks a lot like the OP.. drier as it's been, but qpf max about the same area. Maybe cut precip by like .1-.25"? clown map has 3-4" for everyone.. 4-8" over much of WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I won't be a believer until Zwyts approves He is already in full weenie mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 He is already in full weenie mode. i think pretty much all the skeptics except maybe psuhoff are on board to some degree. he seems to think it will never snow again... which means he's getting about 8-10 from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=85813 Oh, Henry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 i think pretty much all the skeptics except maybe psuhoff are on board to some degree. he seems to think it will never snow again... which means he's getting about 8-10 from this one. Meh. I'll believe it when I see it actually snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=85813 Oh, Henry... Might not be horrid but accu never usually turns down a 95 hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Might not be horrid but accu never usually turns down a 95 hit. At the end it may be correct, but after looking at the 12z model runs how can he put us in the mix area. He could have at least put us in the C-3" that would have been more sane. Anyway any sane forecaster would never put out a snow map 4 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 ADDITIONALLY...A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD WEDGE FROM ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN ONTARIO PENETRATES THE MID ATLANTIC AND HOLDS ON MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES SW TO NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A POSITION NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE COLD WEDGE...PRODCUING A MIX OF WINTER WEATHER PTYPES FOR THE REGION. LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A SLEET-FZRA EVENT ATTM AS H85-H7 THICKNESS VALUES ARE ABOVE 1540M WHILE THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS FALLING DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI...WHILE 1000-850MB THICKNESS IS UNDER 1300M. EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW 1/3RD OF CWA WHERE THE COLUMN IS COOLER THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE STORM. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TRACK ATTM TO PROVIDE ANY FINER DETAILS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 NAM way North at 84..... good thing? I'm not so sure I want to be in the NAM's track at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Even if it doesn't, it definitely controls the next model run lately. It is part of teh new equation! And somehow nature picks up on it too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 NAM way North at 84..... good thing? I'm not so sure I want to be in the NAM's track at this point. It did a great job last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It did a great job last week LOL, it did. Reading some of the model diagnostic stuff, they don't seem to have much faith in the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 LOL, it did. Reading some of the model diagnostic stuff, they don't seem to have much faith in the NAM actually, it didn't. It was the 1st model to forecast the watch criteria storm while the euro had zilch. Later, it jumped south while the Eruo still had little. Only in the last 12 hours did it win when the euro somehow decided to go wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 In my previous post< I'm not trying to say the NAm solution is wrong. It may not be but it was not that good in the longer time ranges last storm. Right now the spread of possible tracks is between the NAM and Euro with the two most skillful models on the southern end. The lack of a real negative NAO leaves me feeling a little uneasy. In all likelhood the models will probably continue to waffle back and forth for another couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 actually, it didn't. It was the 1st model to forecast the watch criteria storm while the euro had zilch. Later, it jumped south while the Eruo still had little. Only in the last 12 hours did it win when the euro somehow decided to go wet. And even if it did, it hasn't been nearly as accurate as the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 We'll just have to wait until the shortwave gets onshore. Until then anything is possible, except snow for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 We'll just have to wait until the shortwave gets onshore. Until then anything is possible, except snow for DC. LOL..... are you the last pessimist with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Like Wes said, "the models will probably continue to waffle back and forth for another couple of days". By Wed we will know a lot more on this event. You would think by now the majority of us would built calluses on the brain with the consistent let downs. I for sure have not built them yet but missing out on Fridays event sure could do it in for many. Lol Good Luck everyone!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Like Wes said, "the models will probably continue to waffle back and forth for another couple of days". By Wed we will know a lot more on this event. You would think by now the majority of us would built calluses on the brain with the consistent let downs. I for sure have not built them yet but missing out on Fridays event sure could do it in for many. Lol Good Luck everyone!!! I think all of your posts you just take what somebody else has said and say it in a slightly different way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Here's the 12Z GEFS plume diagram. The 1.00" or greater liquid equivalent members look bogus as do the ones that start as rain. Still, all at least show a little snow for AID and most show enough to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 18z is going to be south. (Ugg, another week of this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 At 90 the low is in Kentucky, doesn't look that far south me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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